- λ home
- 1.35
- λ away
- 2.07
- Σλ total
- 3.42
- P(over 2.5)
- 64%
- P(BTTS)
- 64%
- Modal score
- 1–2 9.5%
Dubai United vs Sharjah FC prediction & xG model: Over 2.5 goals
In-play probabilities
The pre-match expected goals, scaled to the minutes left and added to the current score. Updates every 30 seconds.
Pre-match: Dubai United 24% · draw 21% · Sharjah FC 56%. The live model cannot see red cards or substitutions – read it as a guide.
Dubai United v Sharjah FC: who are you backing?
- Votes
- 0
- Takes
- 0
- Back / fade
- 0 / 0
Your call Counts on the weekly table · change it until kick-off
Takes
- No takes yet. Say what you think – the first take sits at the top.
Takes are opinions from Winning Arena visitors, not our tips. Be respectful: no insults, links, phone numbers or tip-selling. Report anything that breaks the rules and it is hidden for review.
How the numbers for Dubai United v Sharjah FC are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to all competitions results (20 and 21 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dubai United (home) | 1.66 | 1.10 | 0.80 | 1.47 |
| Sharjah FC (away) | 1.38 | 1.22 | 1.28 | 2.15 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.66 × 1.10 × 0.80 ≈ 1.47
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 3.63 | 45% |
| Statistical xG feed | 3.33 | 25% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 3.18 | 30% |
| Blended total λ | 3.42 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.35, λaway = 2.07
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 24.9%
- Σ draw cells
- 21.2%
- Σ away-win cells
- 53.9%
- Most probable score
- 1–2 · 9.5%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Dubai United | 25.9% | 18.0% | 24.9% | 23.7% |
| X Draw | 21.5% | 13.0% | 24.5% | 20.8% |
| 2 Sharjah FC | 52.6% | 69.0% | 50.6% | 55.6% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.122 → 12.2% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Dubai United | 23.7% | 4.23 | 3.58 | 27.9% | -15.3% | |
| X · Draw | 20.8% | 4.81 | 3.64 | 27.5% | -24.4% | |
| 2 · Sharjah FC | 55.6% | 1.80 | 1.76 | 56.8% | -2.2% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 44.4% | 2.25 | 1.81 | 55.2% | -19.6% | |
| X2 | 76.3% | 1.31 | 1.19 | 84.0% | -9.1% | |
| 12 | 79.2% | 1.26 | 1.18 | 84.7% | -6.5% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Dubai United | 29.9% | 3.35 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Sharjah FC | 70.1% | 1.43 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 85.5% | 1.17 | – | – | – | |
| Under 1.5 | 14.5% | 6.90 | – | – | – | |
| Over 2.5 pick | 63.9% | 1.56 | 1.47 | 68.0% | -6.0% | |
| Under 2.5 | 36.1% | 2.77 | 2.35 | 42.6% | -15.3% | |
| Over 3.5 | 42.7% | 2.34 | 2.24 | 44.6% | -4.3% | |
| Under 3.5 | 57.3% | 1.75 | 1.55 | 64.5% | -11.2% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes | 63.7% | 1.57 | 1.46 | 68.5% | -7.0% | |
| BTTS no | 36.3% | 2.75 | 2.41 | 41.5% | -12.4% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 22.9% | 4.37 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 36.0% | 2.78 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 41.1% | 2.43 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.639 × 1.47 − 1 = -0.060 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.000 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.0% of bankroll (no stake – the price has no edge)
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Dubai United | Sharjah FC |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | LLLLWL | WWWDWL |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 1-0-5 | 4-1-1 |
| Points per match | 0.50 | 2.17 |
| Goals for / match | 1.17 | 1.67 |
| Goals against / match | 2.83 | 0.83 |
| Over 2.5 | 83% | 50% |
| BTTS | 83% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 50% |
| Failed to score | 17% | 17% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Sharjah FC narrowly ahead at 56%; Dubai United 24%.
Form
Sequence for Dubai United: L L L L W L, so one victory in six. Latest: 1–4 away at Al Nasr. Per match: 1.2 scored, 2.8 conceded. No shut-outs in that run.
Sharjah FC, last six: W W W D W L – four wins in total. Latest: 2–0 at home to Shabab Al Ahli Dubai. Per match: 1.7 scored, 0.8 conceded. 3 shut-outs in that run.
Head to head
Last meeting (Sep 2026): Sharjah FC 4–3 Dubai United. Old results carry little weight next to current ratings.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Dubai United 1.35 · Sharjah FC 2.07 · total 3.42. Goals expected – 64% for over 2.5 and 64% for both teams to score.
Model selection
Selection: Over 2.5 goals, probability 64%, odds 1.47 v fair 1.56. Most probable score: Dubai United 1–2 Sharjah FC. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →- 5 Sep 2026Sharjah FC4–3Dubai United
More League Cup predictions
League page →
Al Wahda FC
Khorfakkan
Al-Ittihad Kalba
Shabab Al Ahli DubaiFrequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Dubai United vs Sharjah FC?
The Model pick is Over 2.5 goals with a model probability of 64, priced around 1.47 by the bookmakers.
What are the Dubai United v Sharjah FC probabilities?
Dubai United win 24%, draw 21%, Sharjah FC win 56%.
What is the most probable score for Dubai United vs Sharjah FC?
Dubai United 1–2 Sharjah FC is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Dubai United vs Sharjah FC?
Dubai United 1.35, Sharjah FC 2.07 – over 2.5 at 64%, BTTS at 64%.
What time is Dubai United vs Sharjah FC?
Sunday 15 November 2026, 13:50 WAT, at Al Maktoum Stadium – League Cup.