United-Arab-Emirates League Cup Sun 15 Nov 2026 · Al Nahyan Stadium Upcoming

Al Wahda FC

WWWLD

13:50

Sunday · WAT

Khorfakkan

LLLWW

63%P(1)20%P(X)17%P(2)

λ home: 1.94
λ away: 0.94
Σλ total: 2.88
P(over 2.5): 59%
P(BTTS): 57%
Modal score: 1–0 10.9%

Al Wahda FC vs Khorfakkan prediction & xG model: Under 3.5 goals

The Arena debate

Al Wahda FC v Khorfakkan: who are you backing?

Votes: 0
Takes: 0
Back / fade: 0 / 0

Your call Counts on the weekly table · change it until kick-off

Arena tipUnder 3.5 goals62% chance · @1.60

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Model sheet

How the numbers for Al Wahda FC v Khorfakkan are calculated

Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.

Expected goals (λ)

Ratings fitted to all competitions results (26 and 19 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.

	League avg goals	Attack	Opp. defence	λ (ratings)
Al Wahda FC (home)	1.66	1.01	1.12	1.88
Khorfakkan (away)	1.38	1.01	0.69	0.96

λ_home = μ_home × Att_home × Def_away = 1.66 × 1.01 × 1.12 ≈ 1.88

Total-goals source	Estimate	Weight
Team ratings	2.83	45%
Statistical xG feed	2.50	25%
Over/under 2.5 price	3.26	30%
Blended total λ	2.88	100%

Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λ_home = 1.94, λ_away = 0.94

Poisson goal distributions

P(k goals) = e^−λ · λ^k ÷ k!

Al Wahda FC λ = 1.94

014.4%

127.9%

227.0%

317.5%

48.5%

5+4.7%

Khorfakkan λ = 0.94

039.0%

136.7%

217.3%

35.4%

41.3%

5+0.3%

Score grid

Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.

Al \ Kho012345+

05.65.32.50.8··

111104.81.5··

2119.94.71.5··

36.86.43.00.9··

43.33.11.5···

5+1.81.70.8···

Σ home-win cells: 60.7%
Σ draw cells: 21.6%
Σ away-win cells: 17.7%
Most probable score: 1–0 · 10.9%

Blending with the market

Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.

Outcome	Ratings	Feed	Market*	Final
1 Al Wahda FC	58.0%	64.0%	65.5%	62.5%
X Draw	23.4%	17.0%	19.8%	20.4%
2 Khorfakkan	18.6%	19.0%	14.7%	17.1%

Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.123 → 12.3% removed before blending (*market column).

Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV

Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied

Selection	p	Fair	Best odds	Implied	EV
1X2
1 · Al Wahda FC	62.5%	1.60	1.36	73.5%	-14.9%
X · Draw	20.4%	4.90	4.50	22.2%	-8.2%
2 · Khorfakkan	17.1%	5.86	6.05	16.5%	+3.2%
Double chance
1X	82.9%	1.21	1.05	95.2%	-12.9%
X2	37.5%	2.67	2.59	38.6%	-3.0%
12	79.6%	1.26	1.11	90.1%	-11.6%
Draw no bet
DNB Al Wahda FC	78.6%	1.27	–	–	–
DNB Khorfakkan	21.4%	4.67	–	–	–
Goal lines
Over 1.5	79.5%	1.26	1.12	89.3%	-11.0%
Under 1.5	20.5%	4.87	4.70	21.3%	-3.5%
Over 2.5	59.1%	1.69	1.43	69.9%	-15.5%
Under 2.5	40.9%	2.44	2.46	40.7%	+0.7%
Over 3.5	37.6%	2.66	2.15	46.5%	-19.1%
Under 3.5 pick	62.4%	1.60	1.60	62.5%	-0.2%
Both teams to score
BTTS yes	56.7%	1.76	1.60	62.5%	-9.3%
BTTS no	43.3%	2.31	2.11	47.4%	-8.6%
Half-time
HT 1	44.0%	2.27	–	–	–
HT X	39.1%	2.56	–	–	–
HT 2	17.0%	5.89	–	–	–

The selection

Model pickUnder 3.5 goals

Probability62.4%

Fair odds1.60

Best odds1.60

EV per unit-0.2%

EV = 0.624 × 1.60 − 1 = -0.002 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.000 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.0% of bankroll (no stake – the price has no edge)

A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.

Recent form, in numbers

last 6 matches · 90-minute scores

Metric	Al Wahda FC	Khorfakkan
Sequence	DLWWWW	WWLLLL
Matches	6	6
W-D-L	4-1-1	2-0-4
Points per match	2.17	1.00
Goals for / match	1.50	1.50
Goals against / match	1.00	2.00
Over 2.5	67%	83%
BTTS	67%	83%
Clean sheets	33%	0%
Failed to score	17%	17%

What the numbers say

by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst

1X2 probabilities

Al Wahda FC at 63%: ratings and home advantage combine into a clear edge.

Form

Al Wahda FC, last six: D L W W W W – four wins in total. Latest: 0–0 at home to Al Ain. Per match: 1.5 scored, 1.0 conceded.

Khorfakkan, last six: W W L L L L – two wins in total. Latest: 2–1 away at Hatta SC. Per match: 1.5 scored, 2.0 conceded. No shut-outs in that run.

Head to head

Previous 2: Al Wahda FC 1, Khorfakkan 0, drawn 1, 3.5 goals per meeting. Last meeting (Oct 2026): Khorfakkan 2–3 Al Wahda FC. Old results carry little weight next to current ratings.

Expected goals (xG)

xG Al Wahda FC 1.94 · Khorfakkan 0.94 · total 2.88. Balanced goal lines: over 2.5 59%, BTTS 57%.

Model selection

Model selection: Under 3.5 goals, probability 62%, odds 1.60 v fair 1.60. Most probable score: Al Wahda FC 1–0 Khorfakkan. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.