- λ home
- 1.86
- λ away
- 0.96
- Σλ total
- 2.82
- P(over 2.5)
- 52%
- P(BTTS)
- 51%
- Modal score
- 1–0 11.1%
Cotonsport vs Aigle Royal de Moungo prediction & xG model: Over 1.5 goals
In-play probabilities
The pre-match expected goals, scaled to the minutes left and added to the current score. Updates every 30 seconds.
Pre-match: Cotonsport 60% · draw 20% · Aigle Royal de Moungo 20%. The live model cannot see red cards or substitutions – read it as a guide.
Cotonsport v Aigle Royal de Moungo: who are you backing?
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How the numbers for Cotonsport v Aigle Royal de Moungo are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Not enough history for team ratings – the goal estimate uses the statistical feed and the market line only.
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Statistical xG feed | 3.00 | 45% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 2.67 | 55% |
| Blended total λ | 2.82 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.86, λaway = 0.96
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 58.5%
- Σ draw cells
- 22.4%
- Σ away-win cells
- 19.1%
- Most probable score
- 1–0 · 11.1%
Blending with the market
With no ratings for these teams, the statistical feed is blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Cotonsport | – | 62.0% | 56.1% | 59.5% |
| X Draw | – | 17.0% | 24.9% | 20.3% |
| 2 Aigle Royal de Moungo | – | 21.0% | 19.0% | 20.2% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.121 → 12.1% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Cotonsport | 59.5% | 1.68 | 1.59 | 62.9% | -5.4% | |
| X · Draw | 20.3% | 4.92 | 3.58 | 27.9% | -27.2% | |
| 2 · Aigle Royal de Moungo | 20.2% | 4.96 | 4.70 | 21.3% | -5.3% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 79.8% | 1.25 | 1.10 | 90.9% | -12.2% | |
| X2 | 40.5% | 2.47 | 2.04 | 49.0% | -17.4% | |
| 12 | 79.7% | 1.26 | 1.19 | 84.0% | -5.2% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Cotonsport | 74.7% | 1.34 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Aigle Royal de Moungo | 25.3% | 3.95 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 pick | 74.8% | 1.34 | 1.25 | 80.0% | -6.5% | |
| Under 1.5 | 25.2% | 3.97 | 3.28 | 30.5% | -17.5% | |
| Over 2.5 | 51.8% | 1.93 | 1.83 | 54.6% | -5.2% | |
| Under 2.5 | 48.2% | 2.07 | 1.83 | 54.6% | -11.8% | |
| Over 3.5 | 30.5% | 3.27 | 3.04 | 32.9% | -7.1% | |
| Under 3.5 | 69.5% | 1.44 | 1.29 | 77.5% | -10.4% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes | 51.4% | 1.95 | 1.82 | 54.9% | -6.5% | |
| BTTS no | 48.6% | 2.06 | 1.82 | 54.9% | -11.5% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 42.4% | 2.36 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 39.8% | 2.51 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 17.8% | 5.62 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.748 × 1.25 − 1 = -0.065 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.000 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.0% of bankroll (no stake – the price has no edge)
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Cotonsport | Aigle Royal de Moungo |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | WWDWDD | DLWLWL |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 3-3-0 | 2-1-3 |
| Points per match | 2.00 | 1.17 |
| Goals for / match | 1.67 | 1.17 |
| Goals against / match | 0.50 | 2.00 |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 83% |
| BTTS | 33% | 83% |
| Clean sheets | 67% | 0% |
| Failed to score | 33% | 17% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Slight home preference: Cotonsport 60%, draw 20%, Aigle Royal de Moungo 20%. Standings: Cotonsport 4th on 44, Aigle Royal de Moungo 11th on 30.
Form
Cotonsport, last six: W W D W D D – three wins in total. Latest: 2–0 away at Victoria United. Per match: 1.7 scored, 0.5 conceded. 4 shut-outs in that run.
Aigle Royal de Moungo have two wins from their last six (D L W L W L). Latest: 1–1 at home to Union Abong-Mbang. Per match: 1.2 scored, 2.0 conceded. No shut-outs in that run.
Head to head
Last meeting (Apr 2026): Aigle Royal de Moungo 2–0 Cotonsport. Old results carry little weight next to current ratings.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Cotonsport 1.86 · Aigle Royal de Moungo 0.96 · total 2.82. Balanced goal lines: over 2.5 52%, BTTS 51%.
Model selection
Selection: Over 1.5 goals, probability 75%, odds 1.25 v fair 1.34. Most probable score: Cotonsport 2–0 Aigle Royal de Moungo. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →- 22 Apr 2026Aigle Royal de Moungo2–0Cotonsport
Elite One table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Colombe | 26 | +34 | 55 |
| 2 |  Dynamo de Douala | 26 | +29 | 55 |
| 3 |  Unisport Bafang | 26 | +7 | 49 |
| 4 |  Cotonsport | 26 | +14 | 44 |
| 5 |  Canon | 26 | +11 | 39 |
| 6 |  Panthère | 26 | +6 | 35 |
| 7 |  PWD Bamenda | 26 | -1 | 34 |
| 8 |  Gazelle | 26 | -5 | 33 |
| 9 |  Victoria United | 26 | -9 | 33 |
| 10 |  Stade Renard | 26 | -2 | 31 |
| 11 |  Aigle Royal de Moungo | 26 | -13 | 30 |
| 12 |  Aigle Royal | 26 | -3 | 29 |
| 13 |  Fortuna Mfou | 26 | -28 | 21 |
| 14 |  Jeunes Fauves | 26 | -40 | 17 |
More Elite One predictions
League page →
Gazelle
Union Abong-Mbang
APEJES AcademyFrequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Cotonsport vs Aigle Royal de Moungo?
The Model pick is Over 1.5 goals with a model probability of 75, priced around 1.25 by the bookmakers.
What are the Cotonsport v Aigle Royal de Moungo probabilities?
Cotonsport win 60%, draw 20%, Aigle Royal de Moungo win 20%.
What is the most probable score for Cotonsport vs Aigle Royal de Moungo?
Cotonsport 2–0 Aigle Royal de Moungo is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Cotonsport vs Aigle Royal de Moungo?
Cotonsport 1.86, Aigle Royal de Moungo 0.96 – over 2.5 at 52%, BTTS at 51%.
What time is Cotonsport vs Aigle Royal de Moungo?
Sunday 15 November 2026, 16:00 WAT, at Stade Roumde Adjia – Elite One.