- λ home
- 1.89
- λ away
- 0.91
- Σλ total
- 2.80
- P(over 2.5)
- 51%
- P(BTTS)
- 57%
- Modal score
- 1–0 11.5%
Colombe vs Dynamo de Douala prediction & xG model: Both teams to score
In-play probabilities
The pre-match expected goals, scaled to the minutes left and added to the current score. Updates every 30 seconds.
Pre-match: Colombe 59% · draw 24% · Dynamo de Douala 18%. The live model cannot see red cards or substitutions – read it as a guide.
Colombe v Dynamo de Douala: who are you backing?
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How the numbers for Colombe v Dynamo de Douala are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to league results (23 and 20 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colombe (home) | 1.67 | 1.33 | 0.86 | 1.91 |
| Dynamo de Douala (away) | 1.10 | 1.40 | 0.58 | 0.89 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.67 × 1.33 × 0.86 ≈ 1.91
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 2.80 | 45% |
| Statistical xG feed | 3.00 | 25% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 2.62 | 30% |
| Blended total λ | 2.80 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.89, λaway = 0.91
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 60.3%
- Σ draw cells
- 22.0%
- Σ away-win cells
- 17.7%
- Most probable score
- 1–0 · 11.5%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Colombe | 60.3% | 68.0% | 52.2% | 58.7% |
| X Draw | 22.9% | 19.0% | 26.9% | 23.7% |
| 2 Dynamo de Douala | 16.8% | 13.0% | 21.0% | 17.7% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.121 → 12.1% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Colombe | 58.7% | 1.70 | 1.71 | 58.5% | +0.3% | |
| X · Draw | 23.7% | 4.23 | 3.32 | 30.1% | -21.5% | |
| 2 · Dynamo de Douala | 17.7% | 5.66 | 4.25 | 23.5% | -24.9% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 82.3% | 1.21 | 1.13 | 88.5% | -7.0% | |
| X2 | 41.3% | 2.42 | 1.87 | 53.5% | -22.7% | |
| 12 | 76.3% | 1.31 | 1.22 | 82.0% | -6.9% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Colombe | 76.9% | 1.30 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Dynamo de Douala | 23.1% | 4.32 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 74.6% | 1.34 | 1.25 | 80.0% | -6.7% | |
| Under 1.5 | 25.4% | 3.94 | 3.28 | 30.5% | -16.8% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50.9% | 1.96 | 1.88 | 53.2% | -4.3% | |
| Under 2.5 | 49.1% | 2.04 | 1.79 | 55.9% | -12.1% | |
| Over 3.5 | 29.8% | 3.36 | 3.14 | 31.8% | -6.4% | |
| Under 3.5 | 70.2% | 1.42 | 1.27 | 78.7% | -10.8% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes pick | 57.3% | 1.75 | 1.78 | 56.2% | +2.0% | |
| BTTS no | 42.7% | 2.34 | 1.86 | 53.8% | -20.6% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 43.5% | 2.30 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 39.8% | 2.52 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 16.8% | 5.96 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.573 × 1.78 − 1 = +0.020 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.025 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.6% of bankroll
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Colombe | Dynamo de Douala |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | WDWWWD | WLDWWW |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 4-2-0 | 4-1-1 |
| Points per match | 2.33 | 2.17 |
| Goals for / match | 1.33 | 2.67 |
| Goals against / match | 0.33 | 1.17 |
| Over 2.5 | 17% | 67% |
| BTTS | 33% | 67% |
| Clean sheets | 67% | 33% |
| Failed to score | 17% | 0% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Colombe ahead at 59%, against 18% for Dynamo de Douala and 24% for the draw. Standings: Colombe 1st on 55, Dynamo de Douala 2nd on 55.
Form
Colombe, last six: W D W W W D – four wins in total. Latest: 2–1 at home to Victoria United. Per match: 1.3 scored, 0.3 conceded. 4 shut-outs in that run.
Dynamo de Douala, last six: W L D W W W – four wins in total. Latest: 3–1 at home to Gazelle. Scoring rate: 2.7 per match – well above average.
Head to head
Last meeting (Apr 2026): Dynamo de Douala 1–1 Colombe. Old results carry little weight next to current ratings.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Colombe 1.89 · Dynamo de Douala 0.91 · total 2.80. Balanced goal lines: over 2.5 51%, BTTS 57%.
Model selection
Highest-rated market: Both teams to score, probability 57%, odds 1.78 v fair 1.75. Most probable score: Colombe 2–1 Dynamo de Douala. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →- 29 Apr 2026Dynamo de Douala1–1Colombe
Elite One table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Colombe | 26 | +34 | 55 |
| 2 |  Dynamo de Douala | 26 | +29 | 55 |
| 3 |  Unisport Bafang | 26 | +7 | 49 |
| 4 |  Cotonsport | 26 | +14 | 44 |
| 5 |  Canon | 26 | +11 | 39 |
| 6 |  Panthère | 26 | +6 | 35 |
| 7 |  PWD Bamenda | 26 | -1 | 34 |
| 8 |  Gazelle | 26 | -5 | 33 |
| 9 |  Victoria United | 26 | -9 | 33 |
| 10 |  Stade Renard | 26 | -2 | 31 |
| 11 |  Aigle Royal de Moungo | 26 | -13 | 30 |
| 12 |  Aigle Royal | 26 | -3 | 29 |
| 13 |  Fortuna Mfou | 26 | -28 | 21 |
| 14 |  Jeunes Fauves | 26 | -40 | 17 |
More Elite One predictions
League page →
Gazelle
Union Abong-Mbang
APEJES AcademyFrequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Colombe vs Dynamo de Douala?
The Model pick is Both teams to score with a model probability of 57, priced around 1.78 by the bookmakers.
What are the Colombe v Dynamo de Douala probabilities?
Colombe win 59%, draw 24%, Dynamo de Douala win 18%.
What is the most probable score for Colombe vs Dynamo de Douala?
Colombe 2–1 Dynamo de Douala is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Colombe vs Dynamo de Douala?
Colombe 1.89, Dynamo de Douala 0.91 – over 2.5 at 51%, BTTS at 57%.
What time is Colombe vs Dynamo de Douala?
Sunday 15 November 2026, 16:00 WAT – Elite One.