- λ home
- 2.29
- λ away
- 1.32
- Σλ total
- 3.61
- P(over 2.5)
- 67%
- P(BTTS)
- 65%
- Modal score
- 2–1 9.4%
Warriors vs Wofoo Tai Po prediction & xG model: Warriors to win
In-play probabilities
The pre-match expected goals, scaled to the minutes left and added to the current score. Updates every 30 seconds.
Pre-match: Warriors 63% · draw 13% · Wofoo Tai Po 25%. The live model cannot see red cards or substitutions – read it as a guide.
Warriors v Wofoo Tai Po: who are you backing?
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How the numbers for Warriors v Wofoo Tai Po are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Not enough history for team ratings – the goal estimate uses the statistical feed and the market line only.
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Statistical xG feed | 4.00 | 45% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 3.28 | 55% |
| Blended total λ | 3.61 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 2.29, λaway = 1.32
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 59.3%
- Σ draw cells
- 19.6%
- Σ away-win cells
- 21.1%
- Most probable score
- 2–1 · 9.4%
Blending with the market
With no ratings for these teams, the statistical feed is blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Warriors | – | 71.0% | 51.2% | 62.7% |
| X Draw | – | 5.0% | 23.5% | 12.8% |
| 2 Wofoo Tai Po | – | 24.0% | 25.3% | 24.6% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.122 → 12.2% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Warriors pick | 62.7% | 1.60 | 1.74 | 57.5% | +9.1% | |
| X · Draw | 12.8% | 7.84 | 3.80 | 26.3% | -51.5% | |
| 2 · Wofoo Tai Po | 24.6% | 4.07 | 3.52 | 28.4% | -13.6% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 75.4% | 1.33 | 1.20 | 83.3% | -9.5% | |
| X2 | 37.3% | 2.68 | 1.83 | 54.6% | -31.7% | |
| 12 | 87.2% | 1.15 | 1.16 | 86.2% | +1.2% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Warriors | 71.9% | 1.39 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Wofoo Tai Po | 28.1% | 3.55 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 87.5% | 1.14 | – | – | – | |
| Under 1.5 | 12.5% | 8.01 | – | – | – | |
| Over 2.5 | 66.8% | 1.50 | 1.42 | 70.4% | -5.2% | |
| Under 2.5 | 33.2% | 3.01 | 2.49 | 40.2% | -17.3% | |
| Over 3.5 | 46.2% | 2.17 | 2.10 | 47.6% | -3.0% | |
| Under 3.5 | 53.8% | 1.86 | 1.63 | 61.3% | -12.3% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes | 65.5% | 1.53 | 1.43 | 69.9% | -6.4% | |
| BTTS no | 34.5% | 2.90 | 2.50 | 40.0% | -13.7% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 45.0% | 2.22 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 34.3% | 2.92 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 20.7% | 4.83 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.627 × 1.74 − 1 = +0.091 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.123 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 2.0% of bankroll
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Warriors | Wofoo Tai Po |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | WWLWWW | WLLWWL |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 5-0-1 | 3-0-3 |
| Points per match | 2.50 | 1.50 |
| Goals for / match | 1.83 | 2.00 |
| Goals against / match | 1.33 | 2.17 |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 83% |
| BTTS | 50% | 67% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 0% |
| Failed to score | 0% | 33% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Strong home favourites – Warriors 63% to win.
Form
Sequence for Warriors: W W L W W W, so five victories in six. Latest: 1–0 at home to Southern District. Per match: 1.8 scored, 1.3 conceded. 3 shut-outs in that run.
Wofoo Tai Po, last six: W L L W W L – three wins in total. Latest: 3–1 away at Eastern District. 2.0 goals a match in that spell. No shut-outs in that run.
Head to head
Previous 2: Warriors 1, Wofoo Tai Po 1, drawn 0, 3.0 goals per meeting. Last meeting (May 2026): Warriors 2–3 Wofoo Tai Po. Old results carry little weight next to current ratings.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Warriors 2.29 · Wofoo Tai Po 1.32 · total 3.61. Goals expected – 67% for over 2.5 and 65% for both teams to score.
Model selection
Highest-rated market: Warriors to win, probability 63%, odds 1.74 v fair 1.60. Most probable score: Warriors 2–1 Wofoo Tai Po. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →- 17 May 2026Warriors2–3Wofoo Tai Po
- 11 Mar 2026Warriors1–0Wofoo Tai Po
More League Cup predictions
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Eastern District
EasternFrequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Warriors vs Wofoo Tai Po?
The Model pick is Warriors to win with a model probability of 63, priced around 1.74 by the bookmakers.
What are the Warriors v Wofoo Tai Po probabilities?
Warriors win 63%, draw 13%, Wofoo Tai Po win 25%.
What is the most probable score for Warriors vs Wofoo Tai Po?
Warriors 2–1 Wofoo Tai Po is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Warriors vs Wofoo Tai Po?
Warriors 2.29, Wofoo Tai Po 1.32 – over 2.5 at 67%, BTTS at 65%.
What time is Warriors vs Wofoo Tai Po?
Sunday 15 November 2026, 11:00 WAT – League Cup.