- λ home
- 1.82
- λ away
- 1.64
- Σλ total
- 3.46
- P(over 2.5)
- 67%
- P(BTTS)
- 69%
- Modal score
- 1–1 9.4%
Eastern District vs Eastern prediction & xG model: Both teams to score
In-play probabilities
The pre-match expected goals, scaled to the minutes left and added to the current score. Updates every 30 seconds.
Pre-match: Eastern District 44% · draw 19% · Eastern 37%. The live model cannot see red cards or substitutions – read it as a guide.
Eastern District v Eastern: who are you backing?
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How the numbers for Eastern District v Eastern are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Not enough history for team ratings – the goal estimate uses the statistical feed and the market line only.
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Statistical xG feed | 3.50 | 45% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 3.42 | 55% |
| Blended total λ | 3.46 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.82, λaway = 1.64
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 42.5%
- Σ draw cells
- 22.4%
- Σ away-win cells
- 35.2%
- Most probable score
- 1–1 · 9.4%
Blending with the market
With no ratings for these teams, the statistical feed is blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Eastern District | – | 45.0% | 42.7% | 44.0% |
| X Draw | – | 16.0% | 23.8% | 19.3% |
| 2 Eastern | – | 39.0% | 33.5% | 36.7% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.122 → 12.2% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Eastern District | 44.0% | 2.27 | 2.09 | 47.8% | -8.0% | |
| X · Draw | 19.3% | 5.18 | 3.74 | 26.7% | -27.9% | |
| 2 · Eastern | 36.7% | 2.73 | 2.66 | 37.6% | -2.4% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 63.3% | 1.58 | 1.35 | 74.1% | -14.5% | |
| X2 | 56.0% | 1.79 | 1.56 | 64.1% | -12.7% | |
| 12 | 80.7% | 1.24 | 1.17 | 85.5% | -5.6% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Eastern District | 54.5% | 1.83 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Eastern | 45.5% | 2.20 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 86.0% | 1.16 | – | – | – | |
| Under 1.5 | 14.0% | 7.13 | – | – | – | |
| Over 2.5 | 66.8% | 1.50 | 1.36 | 73.5% | -9.1% | |
| Under 2.5 | 33.2% | 3.01 | 2.70 | 37.0% | -10.4% | |
| Over 3.5 | 45.6% | 2.19 | 2.01 | 49.8% | -8.4% | |
| Under 3.5 | 54.4% | 1.84 | 1.69 | 59.2% | -8.0% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes pick | 69.3% | 1.44 | 1.35 | 74.1% | -6.4% | |
| BTTS no | 30.7% | 3.26 | 2.79 | 35.8% | -14.4% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 34.1% | 2.93 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 36.4% | 2.75 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 29.5% | 3.39 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.693 × 1.35 − 1 = -0.064 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.000 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.0% of bankroll (no stake – the price has no edge)
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Eastern District | Eastern |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | LWDLWL | LWDLWL |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 2-1-3 | 2-1-3 |
| Points per match | 1.17 | 1.17 |
| Goals for / match | 1.33 | 2.00 |
| Goals against / match | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| Over 2.5 | 100% | 83% |
| BTTS | 83% | 83% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 0% |
| Failed to score | 17% | 17% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Slight home preference: Eastern District 44%, draw 19%, Eastern 37%.
Form
Sequence for Eastern District: L W D L W L, so two victories in six. Latest: 1–3 at home to Wofoo Tai Po. Per match: 1.3 scored, 2.0 conceded. No shut-outs in that run.
Eastern have two wins from their last six (L W D L W L). Latest: 1–2 away at Hong Kong FC. 2.0 goals a match in that spell. No shut-outs in that run.
Head to head
Last meeting (Oct 2026): Eastern District 2–2 Eastern. Old results carry little weight next to current ratings.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Eastern District 1.82 · Eastern 1.64 · total 3.46. High total: over 2.5 67%, BTTS 69%.
Model selection
Highest-rated market: Both teams to score, probability 69%, odds 1.35 v fair 1.44. Most probable score: Eastern District 2–1 Eastern. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →- 17 Oct 2026Eastern District2–2Eastern
More League Cup predictions
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Wofoo Tai PoFrequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Eastern District vs Eastern?
The Model pick is Both teams to score with a model probability of 69, priced around 1.35 by the bookmakers.
What are the Eastern District v Eastern probabilities?
Eastern District win 44%, draw 19%, Eastern win 37%.
What is the most probable score for Eastern District vs Eastern?
Eastern District 2–1 Eastern is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Eastern District vs Eastern?
Eastern District 1.82, Eastern 1.64 – over 2.5 at 67%, BTTS at 69%.
What time is Eastern District vs Eastern?
Sunday 15 November 2026, 08:00 WAT – League Cup.