UEFA Europa Cup Women Wed 11 Nov 2026 · Estadio Manuel Marques Full time

Torreense W

WLWDL

3–0

Half-time 1–0

Sparta Praha W

WWDWL

64%P(1)20%P(X)16%P(2)

λ home: 2.40
λ away: 1.18
Σλ total: 3.58
P(over 2.5): 61%
P(BTTS): 59%
Modal score: 2–1 9.5%

Torreense W vs Sparta Praha W prediction & xG model: Over 2.5 goals

Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick landed ✓

The Arena debate · settled

Torreense W v Sparta Praha W: how the Arena called it

Full time: 3–0
Votes: 0
Takes: 0
Back / fade: 0 / 0

Full time

Arena tipOver 2.5 goals✓
VotersNobody called this one–

Your call Voting closed at kick-off

This debate is closed. The takes below stay up as a record of what the Arena said.

Takes

No takes yet. Say what you think – the first take sits at the top.

Takes are opinions from Winning Arena visitors, not our tips. Be respectful: no insults, links, phone numbers or tip-selling. Report anything that breaks the rules and it is hidden for review.

Model sheet

How the numbers for Torreense W v Sparta Praha W are calculated

Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.

Expected goals (λ)

Ratings fitted to all competitions results (19 and 24 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.

	League avg goals	Attack	Opp. defence	λ (ratings)
Torreense W (home)	1.66	1.78	0.67	1.99
Sparta Praha W (away)	1.38	1.74	0.65	1.56

λ_home = μ_home × Att_home × Def_away = 1.66 × 1.78 × 0.67 ≈ 1.99

Total-goals source	Estimate	Weight
Team ratings	3.55	45%
Statistical xG feed	4.50	25%
Over/under 2.5 price	2.81	30%
Blended total λ	3.58	100%

Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λ_home = 2.40, λ_away = 1.18

Poisson goal distributions

P(k goals) = e^−λ · λ^k ÷ k!

Torreense W λ = 2.40

09.1%

121.8%

226.1%

320.9%

412.6%

5+9.6%

Sparta Praha W λ = 1.18

030.9%

136.3%

221.3%

38.4%

42.5%

5+0.7%

Score grid

Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.

Tor \ Spa012345+

02.83.31.90.8··

16.77.94.61.80.5·

28.19.55.62.20.6·

36.57.64.51.70.5·

43.94.62.71.0··

5+3.03.52.00.8··

Σ home-win cells: 64.4%
Σ draw cells: 18.4%
Σ away-win cells: 17.2%
Most probable score: 2–1 · 9.5%

Blending with the market

Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.

Outcome	Ratings	Feed	Market*	Final
1 Torreense W	47.5%	69.0%	56.4%	63.7%
X Draw	22.4%	17.0%	23.8%	19.9%
2 Sparta Praha W	30.0%	14.0%	19.8%	16.4%

Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.123 → 12.3% removed before blending (*market column).

Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV

Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied

Selection	p	Fair	Best odds	Implied	EV
1X2
1 · Torreense W	63.7%	1.57	1.58	63.3%	+0.6%
X · Draw	19.9%	5.03	3.74	26.7%	-25.7%
2 · Sparta Praha W	16.4%	6.08	4.50	22.2%	-26.0%
Double chance
1X	83.6%	1.20	1.11	90.1%	-7.2%
X2	36.3%	2.75	2.05	48.8%	-25.6%
12	80.1%	1.25	1.17	85.5%	-6.2%
Draw no bet
DNB Torreense W	79.5%	1.26	–	–	–
DNB Sparta Praha W	20.5%	4.88	–	–	–
Goal lines
Over 1.5	81.5%	1.23	1.19	84.0%	-3.0%
Under 1.5	18.5%	5.42	3.74	26.7%	-30.9%
Over 2.5 pick	61.3%	1.63	1.72	58.1%	+5.4%
Under 2.5	38.7%	2.58	1.96	51.0%	-24.1%
Over 3.5	40.3%	2.48	2.78	36.0%	+11.9%
Under 3.5	59.7%	1.67	1.34	74.6%	-20.0%
Both teams to score
BTTS yes	59.1%	1.69	1.71	58.5%	+1.0%
BTTS no	40.9%	2.44	1.95	51.3%	-20.2%
Half-time
HT 1	48.4%	2.07	–	–	–
HT X	33.7%	2.97	–	–	–
HT 2	17.9%	5.59	–	–	–

The selection

Model pickOver 2.5 goals

Probability61.3%

Fair odds1.63

Best odds1.72

EV per unit+5.4%

EV = 0.613 × 1.72 − 1 = +0.054 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.075 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 1.9% of bankroll

A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.

Recent form, in numbers

last 6 matches · 90-minute scores

Metric	Torreense W	Sparta Praha W
Sequence	LDWLWW	LWDWWW
Matches	6	6
W-D-L	3-1-2	4-1-1
Points per match	1.67	2.17
Goals for / match	3.17	3.17
Goals against / match	1.17	1.00
Over 2.5	83%	67%
BTTS	50%	50%
Clean sheets	33%	33%
Failed to score	17%	17%

What the numbers say

by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst

1X2 probabilities

Strong home favourites – Torreense W 64% to win.

Form

Sequence for Torreense W: L D W L W W, so three victories in six. Latest: 0–1 at home to SL Benfica W. 3.2 goals a match in that spell.

Sparta Praha W, last six: L W D W W W – four wins in total. Latest: 0–2 away at Slavia Praha W. Scoring rate: 3.2 per match – well above average.

Head to head

Last meeting (Oct 2026): Sparta Praha W 2–2 Torreense W. Old results carry little weight next to current ratings.

Expected goals (xG)

xG Torreense W 2.40 · Sparta Praha W 1.18 · total 3.58. Goals expected – 61% for over 2.5 and 59% for both teams to score.

Model selection (graded)

Pre-match selection: Over 2.5 goals, probability 61%, odds 1.72 v fair 1.63. Most probable score: Torreense W 2–1 Sparta Praha W. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.