UEFA Europa Cup Women Wed 11 Nov 2026 · Hammarby IP Full time

Hammarby W

LWWWW

4–0

Half-time 0–0

Spartak Myjava W

WWWLW

77%P(1)14%P(X)9%P(2)

λ home: 2.79
λ away: 0.86
Σλ total: 3.64
P(over 2.5): 73%
P(BTTS): 53%
Modal score: 2–0 10.2%

Hammarby W vs Spartak Myjava W prediction & xG model: Both teams to score

Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick missed ✗

The Arena debate · settled

Hammarby W v Spartak Myjava W: how the Arena called it

Full time: 4–0
Votes: 0
Takes: 0
Back / fade: 0 / 0

Full time

Arena tipBoth teams to score✗
VotersNobody called this one–

Your call Voting closed at kick-off

This debate is closed. The takes below stay up as a record of what the Arena said.

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Model sheet

How the numbers for Hammarby W v Spartak Myjava W are calculated

Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.

Expected goals (λ)

Ratings fitted to all competitions results (37 and 25 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.

	League avg goals	Attack	Opp. defence	λ (ratings)
Hammarby W (home)	1.66	1.85	0.68	2.10
Spartak Myjava W (away)	1.38	2.50	0.37	1.28

λ_home = μ_home × Att_home × Def_away = 1.66 × 1.85 × 0.68 ≈ 2.10

Total-goals source	Estimate	Weight
Team ratings	3.38	45%
Statistical xG feed	3.33	25%
Over/under 2.5 price	3.90	30%
Blended total λ	3.64	100%

Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λ_home = 2.79, λ_away = 0.86

Poisson goal distributions

P(k goals) = e^−λ · λ^k ÷ k!

Hammarby W λ = 2.79

06.2%

117.2%

223.9%

322.2%

415.5%

5+15.0%

Spartak Myjava W λ = 0.86

042.4%

136.4%

215.6%

34.5%

41.0%

5+0.2%

Score grid

Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.

Ham \ Spa012345+

02.62.21.0···

17.36.32.70.8··

2108.73.71.1··

39.48.13.51.0··

46.65.62.40.7··

5+6.45.52.30.7··

Σ home-win cells: 77.4%
Σ draw cells: 13.8%
Σ away-win cells: 8.8%
Most probable score: 2–0 · 10.2%

Blending with the market

Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.

Outcome	Ratings	Feed	Market*	Final
1 Hammarby W	55.5%	69.0%	88.5%	77.2%
X Draw	21.8%	19.0%	7.6%	14.2%
2 Spartak Myjava W	22.7%	12.0%	3.9%	8.6%

Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.119 → 11.9% removed before blending (*market column).

Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV

Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied

Selection	p	Fair	Best odds	Implied	EV
1X2
1 · Hammarby W	77.2%	1.30	1.01	99.0%	-22.0%
X · Draw	14.2%	7.03	11.75	8.5%	+67.0%
2 · Spartak Myjava W	8.6%	11.64	23.00	4.3%	+97.6%
Double chance
1X	91.4%	1.09	–	–	–
X2	22.8%	4.38	7.90	12.7%	+80.2%
12	85.8%	1.17	1.01	99.0%	-13.4%
Draw no bet
DNB Hammarby W	90.0%	1.11	–	–	–
DNB Spartak Myjava W	10.0%	9.98	–	–	–
Goal lines
Over 1.5	87.8%	1.14	–	–	–
Under 1.5	12.2%	8.23	–	–	–
Over 2.5	72.6%	1.38	1.21	82.6%	-12.1%
Under 2.5	27.4%	3.65	3.58	27.9%	-1.9%
Over 3.5	54.2%	1.84	1.53	65.4%	-17.0%
Under 3.5	45.8%	2.19	2.21	45.2%	+1.1%
Both teams to score
BTTS yes pick	52.9%	1.89	2.29	43.7%	+21.2%
BTTS no	47.1%	2.12	1.51	66.2%	-28.9%
Half-time
HT 1	58.0%	1.72	–	–	–
HT X	30.6%	3.27	–	–	–
HT 2	11.4%	8.77	–	–	–

The selection

Model pickBoth teams to score

Probability52.9%

Fair odds1.89

Best odds2.29

EV per unit+21.2%

EV = 0.529 × 2.29 − 1 = +0.212 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.164 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 2.0% of bankroll

A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.

Recent form, in numbers

last 6 matches · 90-minute scores

Metric	Hammarby W	Spartak Myjava W
Sequence	WWWWLW	WLWWWW
Matches	6	6
W-D-L	5-0-1	5-0-1
Points per match	2.50	2.50
Goals for / match	2.83	3.83
Goals against / match	0.67	0.67
Over 2.5	67%	100%
BTTS	17%	33%
Clean sheets	67%	67%
Failed to score	17%	0%

What the numbers say

by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst

1X2 probabilities

Strong home favourites – Hammarby W 77% to win.

Form

Hammarby W, last six: W W W W L W – five wins in total. Latest: 2–0 away at Rosengård W. 2.8 goals a match in that spell. 4 shut-outs in that run.

Spartak Myjava W, last six: W L W W W W – five wins in total. Latest: 3–0 at home to Tatran Prešov W. Scoring rate: 3.8 per match – well above average. 4 shut-outs in that run.

Head to head

Last meeting (Oct 2026): Spartak Myjava W 1–3 Hammarby W. Old results carry little weight next to current ratings.

Expected goals (xG)

xG Hammarby W 2.79 · Spartak Myjava W 0.86 · total 3.64. Goals expected – 73% for over 2.5 and 53% for both teams to score.

Model selection (graded)

Pre-match selection: Both teams to score, probability 53%, odds 2.29 v fair 1.89. Most probable score: Hammarby W 2–1 Spartak Myjava W. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.