- λ home
- 1.48
- λ away
- 1.46
- Σλ total
- 2.93
- P(over 2.5)
- 54%
- P(BTTS)
- 54%
- Modal score
- 1–1 11.4%
Rapid vs Genoa prediction & xG model: Over 2.5 goals
Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick missed ✗
Rapid v Genoa: how the Arena called it
- Full time
- 2–0
- Votes
- 0
- Takes
- 0
- Back / fade
- 0 / 0
- Arena tipOver 2.5 goals✗
- VotersNobody called this one–
Your call Voting closed at kick-off
This debate is closed. The takes below stay up as a record of what the Arena said.
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How the numbers for Rapid v Genoa are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to league results (5 and 6 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rapid (home) | 1.73 | 0.94 | 1.22 | 1.99 |
| Genoa (away) | 1.62 | 0.85 | 0.75 | 1.02 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.73 × 0.94 × 1.22 ≈ 1.99
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 3.02 | 45% |
| Statistical xG feed | 3.18 | 25% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 2.73 | 30% |
| Blended total λ | 2.93 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.48, λaway = 1.46
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 38.2%
- Σ draw cells
- 24.6%
- Σ away-win cells
- 37.2%
- Most probable score
- 1–1 · 11.4%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Rapid | 59.1% | 47.0% | 30.0% | 39.8% |
| X Draw | 22.3% | 17.0% | 27.2% | 21.3% |
| 2 Genoa | 18.6% | 36.0% | 42.8% | 38.9% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.113 → 11.3% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Rapid | 39.8% | 2.51 | 3.00 | 33.3% | +19.5% | |
| X · Draw | 21.3% | 4.69 | 3.30 | 30.3% | -29.7% | |
| 2 · Genoa | 38.9% | 2.57 | 2.10 | 47.6% | -18.4% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 61.1% | 1.64 | 1.60 | 62.5% | -2.2% | |
| X2 | 60.2% | 1.66 | 1.30 | 76.9% | -21.8% | |
| 12 | 78.7% | 1.27 | 1.25 | 80.0% | -1.6% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Rapid | 50.6% | 1.98 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Genoa | 49.4% | 2.03 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 79.1% | 1.26 | – | – | – | |
| Under 1.5 | 20.9% | 4.78 | – | – | – | |
| Over 2.5 pick | 53.7% | 1.86 | 1.85 | 54.1% | -0.6% | |
| Under 2.5 | 46.3% | 2.16 | 1.95 | 51.3% | -9.8% | |
| Over 3.5 | 33.8% | 2.96 | – | – | – | |
| Under 3.5 | 66.2% | 1.51 | – | – | – | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes | 53.6% | 1.87 | – | – | – | |
| BTTS no | 46.4% | 2.15 | – | – | – | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 30.2% | 3.31 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 40.2% | 2.49 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 29.6% | 3.38 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.537 × 1.85 − 1 = -0.006 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.000 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.0% of bankroll (no stake – the price has no edge)
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Rapid | Genoa |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | WWWWDW | LWDLLL |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 5-1-0 | 1-1-4 |
| Points per match | 2.67 | 0.67 |
| Goals for / match | 1.83 | 0.67 |
| Goals against / match | 0.50 | 1.67 |
| Over 2.5 | 33% | 33% |
| BTTS | 50% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 17% |
| Failed to score | 0% | 33% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
No clear favourite in the grid – Rapid 40%, draw 21%, Genoa 39%.
Form
Rapid have five wins from their last six (W W W W D W). Latest: 3–1 at home to Arges Pitesti. Per match: 1.8 scored, 0.5 conceded. 3 shut-outs in that run.
Sequence for Genoa: L W D L L L, so one victory in six. Latest: 1–2 away at Parma. Only 0.7 goals a match in that spell.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Rapid 1.48 · Genoa 1.46 · total 2.93. Goals expected – 54% for over 2.5 and 54% for both teams to score.
Model selection (graded)
Pre-match selection: Over 2.5 goals, probability 54%, odds 1.85 v fair 1.86. Most probable score: Rapid 2–1 Genoa. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →No previous meeting in our data.
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FC Ingolstadt 041Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Rapid vs Genoa?
The Model pick is Over 2.5 goals with a model probability of 54, priced around 1.85 by the bookmakers.
What are the Rapid v Genoa probabilities?
Rapid win 40%, draw 21%, Genoa win 39%.
What is the most probable score for Rapid vs Genoa?
Rapid 2–1 Genoa is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Rapid vs Genoa?
Rapid 1.48, Genoa 1.46 – over 2.5 at 54%, BTTS at 54%.
What time is Rapid vs Genoa?
Friday 2 October 2026, 17:00 WAT – Friendlies Clubs.