- λ home
- 1.43
- λ away
- 1.09
- Σλ total
- 2.52
- P(over 2.5)
- 41%
- P(BTTS)
- 46%
- Modal score
- 1–1 12.6%
Wydad Fès vs Chabab Atl. Khenifra prediction & xG model: Wydad Fès to win
In-play probabilities
The pre-match expected goals, scaled to the minutes left and added to the current score. Updates every 30 seconds.
Pre-match: Wydad Fès 48% · draw 20% · Chabab Atl. Khenifra 32%. The live model cannot see red cards or substitutions – read it as a guide.
Wydad Fès v Chabab Atl. Khenifra: who are you backing?
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How the numbers for Wydad Fès v Chabab Atl. Khenifra are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Not enough history for team ratings – the goal estimate uses the statistical feed and the market line only.
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Statistical xG feed | 3.00 | 45% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 2.11 | 55% |
| Blended total λ | 2.52 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.43, λaway = 1.09
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 44.8%
- Σ draw cells
- 26.4%
- Σ away-win cells
- 28.8%
- Most probable score
- 1–1 · 12.6%
Blending with the market
With no ratings for these teams, the statistical feed is blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Wydad Fès | – | 60.0% | 31.7% | 48.1% |
| X Draw | – | 11.0% | 31.8% | 19.7% |
| 2 Chabab Atl. Khenifra | – | 29.0% | 36.5% | 32.1% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.123 → 12.3% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Wydad Fès pick | 48.1% | 2.08 | 2.81 | 35.6% | +35.2% | |
| X · Draw | 19.7% | 5.07 | 2.80 | 35.7% | -44.7% | |
| 2 · Chabab Atl. Khenifra | 32.1% | 3.11 | 2.44 | 41.0% | -21.6% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 67.9% | 1.47 | – | – | – | |
| X2 | 51.9% | 1.93 | – | – | – | |
| 12 | 80.3% | 1.25 | – | – | – | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Wydad Fès | 59.9% | 1.67 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Chabab Atl. Khenifra | 40.1% | 2.50 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 66.4% | 1.51 | 1.50 | 66.7% | -0.5% | |
| Under 1.5 | 33.6% | 2.97 | 2.36 | 42.4% | -20.6% | |
| Over 2.5 | 40.7% | 2.46 | 2.56 | 39.1% | +4.2% | |
| Under 2.5 | 59.3% | 1.69 | 1.40 | 71.4% | -17.0% | |
| Over 3.5 | 21.0% | 4.76 | 5.20 | 19.2% | +9.3% | |
| Under 3.5 | 79.0% | 1.27 | 1.10 | 90.9% | -13.1% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes | 46.0% | 2.18 | 2.09 | 47.8% | -3.9% | |
| BTTS no | 54.0% | 1.85 | 1.61 | 62.1% | -13.0% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 32.9% | 3.04 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 43.8% | 2.28 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 23.3% | 4.30 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.481 × 2.81 − 1 = +0.352 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.194 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 2.0% of bankroll
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Wydad Fès | Chabab Atl. Khenifra |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | WWDWLW | LLWLDL |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 4-1-1 | 1-1-4 |
| Points per match | 2.17 | 0.67 |
| Goals for / match | 2.17 | 1.00 |
| Goals against / match | 1.00 | 1.83 |
| Over 2.5 | 67% | 50% |
| BTTS | 50% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 0% |
| Failed to score | 17% | 50% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Slight home preference: Wydad Fès 48%, draw 20%, Chabab Atl. Khenifra 32%. Standings: Wydad Fès 1st on 16, Chabab Atl. Khenifra 15th on 4.
Form
Sequence for Wydad Fès: W W D W L W, so four victories in six. Latest: 1–0 away at El Massira. 2.2 goals a match in that spell.
Sequence for Chabab Atl. Khenifra: L L W L D L, so one victory in six. Latest: 0–1 at home to Riadi Salmi. Per match: 1.0 scored, 1.8 conceded. No shut-outs in that run.
Head to head
Last meeting (Feb 2026): Wydad Fès 1–0 Chabab Atl. Khenifra. Old results carry little weight next to current ratings.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Wydad Fès 1.43 · Chabab Atl. Khenifra 1.09 · total 2.52. Balanced goal lines: over 2.5 41%, BTTS 46%.
Model selection
Highest-rated market: Wydad Fès to win, probability 48%, odds 2.81 v fair 2.08. Most probable score: Wydad Fès 1–0 Chabab Atl. Khenifra. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →- 22 Feb 2026Wydad Fès1–0Chabab Atl. Khenifra
Botola 2 table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Wydad Fès | 7 | +8 | 16 |
| 2 |  Ittihad Khemisset | 7 | +7 | 16 |
| 3 |  Olympique Dcheïra | 7 | +7 | 16 |
| 4 |  Yacoub El Mansour | 7 | +4 | 14 |
| 5 |  Stade Marocain | 7 | +2 | 13 |
| 6 |  USM Oujda | 7 | 0 | 12 |
| 7 |  Olympique Khouribga | 7 | +4 | 9 |
| 8 |  KAC Kenitra | 7 | 0 | 9 |
| 9 |  Olympique Safi | 7 | -1 | 9 |
| 10 |  El Massira | 7 | -1 | 8 |
| 11 |  Mouloudia Oujda | 7 | -2 | 8 |
| 12 |  Chabab Ben Guerir | 7 | -1 | 7 |
| 13 |  Riadi Salmi | 7 | -6 | 5 |
| 14 |  Union Sportive Boujaad | 7 | -5 | 4 |
| 15 |  Chabab Atl. Khenifra | 7 | -6 | 4 |
| 16 |  Chabab Mohammédia | 7 | -10 | 2 |
More Botola 2 predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Wydad Fès vs Chabab Atl. Khenifra?
The Model pick is Wydad Fès to win with a model probability of 48, priced around 2.81 by the bookmakers.
What are the Wydad Fès v Chabab Atl. Khenifra probabilities?
Wydad Fès win 48%, draw 20%, Chabab Atl. Khenifra win 32%.
What is the most probable score for Wydad Fès vs Chabab Atl. Khenifra?
Wydad Fès 1–0 Chabab Atl. Khenifra is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Wydad Fès vs Chabab Atl. Khenifra?
Wydad Fès 1.43, Chabab Atl. Khenifra 1.09 – over 2.5 at 41%, BTTS at 46%.
What time is Wydad Fès vs Chabab Atl. Khenifra?
Sunday 15 November 2026, 16:00 WAT – Botola 2.