- λ home
- 1.06
- λ away
- 1.09
- Σλ total
- 2.15
- P(over 2.5)
- 36%
- P(BTTS)
- 51%
- Modal score
- 1–1 13.5%
Riadi Salmi vs Olympique Khouribga prediction & xG model: Both teams to score
In-play probabilities
The pre-match expected goals, scaled to the minutes left and added to the current score. Updates every 30 seconds.
Pre-match: Riadi Salmi 33% · draw 28% · Olympique Khouribga 38%. The live model cannot see red cards or substitutions – read it as a guide.
Riadi Salmi v Olympique Khouribga: what are you seeing?
- 31′
- 0–1
- Votes
- 0
- Takes
- 0
- Back / fade
- 0 / 0
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How the numbers for Riadi Salmi v Olympique Khouribga are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to league results (16 and 7 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Riadi Salmi (home) | 1.36 | 0.98 | 0.82 | 1.09 |
| Olympique Khouribga (away) | 0.78 | 1.17 | 1.16 | 1.06 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.36 × 0.98 × 0.82 ≈ 1.09
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 2.15 | 45% |
| Statistical xG feed | 2.14 | 25% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 2.15 | 30% |
| Blended total λ | 2.15 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.06, λaway = 1.09
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 34.5%
- Σ draw cells
- 29.5%
- Σ away-win cells
- 36.0%
- Most probable score
- 1–1 · 13.5%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Riadi Salmi | 35.3% | 33.0% | 32.0% | 33.4% |
| X Draw | 31.1% | 19.0% | 31.6% | 28.5% |
| 2 Olympique Khouribga | 33.6% | 48.0% | 36.4% | 38.1% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.122 → 12.2% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Riadi Salmi | 33.4% | 2.99 | 2.78 | 36.0% | -7.2% | |
| X · Draw | 28.5% | 3.51 | 2.82 | 35.5% | -19.7% | |
| 2 · Olympique Khouribga | 38.1% | 2.62 | 2.45 | 40.8% | -6.6% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 61.9% | 1.62 | 1.41 | 70.9% | -12.7% | |
| X2 | 66.6% | 1.50 | 1.32 | 75.8% | -12.1% | |
| 12 | 71.5% | 1.40 | 1.31 | 76.3% | -6.3% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Riadi Salmi | 46.7% | 2.14 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Olympique Khouribga | 53.3% | 1.88 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 62.9% | 1.59 | 1.45 | 69.0% | -8.8% | |
| Under 1.5 | 37.1% | 2.69 | 2.41 | 41.5% | -10.5% | |
| Over 2.5 | 36.4% | 2.75 | 2.51 | 39.8% | -8.6% | |
| Under 2.5 | 63.6% | 1.57 | 1.44 | 69.4% | -8.4% | |
| Over 3.5 | 17.7% | 5.65 | 4.95 | 20.2% | -12.4% | |
| Under 3.5 | 82.3% | 1.22 | 1.11 | 90.1% | -8.6% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes pick | 51.0% | 1.96 | 2.04 | 49.0% | +4.0% | |
| BTTS no | 49.0% | 2.04 | 1.64 | 61.0% | -19.6% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 25.5% | 3.92 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 48.0% | 2.08 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 26.4% | 3.78 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.510 × 2.04 − 1 = +0.040 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.038 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 1.0% of bankroll
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Riadi Salmi | Olympique Khouribga |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | WDLLLD | WDDDLW |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 1-2-3 | 2-3-1 |
| Points per match | 0.83 | 1.50 |
| Goals for / match | 0.67 | 1.67 |
| Goals against / match | 1.33 | 0.83 |
| Over 2.5 | 33% | 33% |
| BTTS | 50% | 67% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 33% |
| Failed to score | 33% | 0% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Probabilities are almost level: 33 / 28 / 38% for home, draw, away. Standings: Riadi Salmi 14th on 5, Olympique Khouribga 9th on 9.
Form
Sequence for Riadi Salmi: W D L L L D, so one victory in six. Latest: 1–0 away at Chabab Atl. Khenifra. The scoring rate has dropped to 0.7 per match.
Olympique Khouribga, last six: W D D D L W – two wins in total. Latest: 2–0 at home to Mouloudia Oujda. Per match: 1.7 scored, 0.8 conceded.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Riadi Salmi 1.06 · Olympique Khouribga 1.09 · total 2.15. Low total: under 2.5 64%.
Model selection
Selection: Both teams to score, probability 51%, odds 2.04 v fair 1.96. Most probable score: Riadi Salmi 1–2 Olympique Khouribga. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →No previous meeting in our data.
Botola 2 table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Olympique Dcheïra | 8 | +9 | 19 |
| 2 |  Ittihad Khemisset | 8 | +7 | 17 |
| 3 |  Wydad Fès | 7 | +8 | 16 |
| 4 |  Yacoub El Mansour | 7 | +4 | 14 |
| 5 |  Stade Marocain | 8 | -1 | 13 |
| 6 |  USM Oujda | 7 | 0 | 12 |
| 7 |  Mouloudia Oujda | 8 | +1 | 11 |
| 8 |  KAC Kenitra | 8 | 0 | 10 |
| 9 |  Olympique Khouribga | 7 | +4 | 9 |
| 10 |  Olympique Safi | 7 | -1 | 9 |
| 11 |  El Massira | 8 | -3 | 8 |
| 12 |  Chabab Ben Guerir | 8 | -2 | 7 |
| 13 |  Union Sportive Boujaad | 8 | -4 | 7 |
| 14 |  Riadi Salmi | 7 | -6 | 5 |
| 15 |  Chabab Atl. Khenifra | 7 | -6 | 4 |
| 16 |  Chabab Mohammédia | 7 | -10 | 2 |
More Botola 2 predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Riadi Salmi vs Olympique Khouribga?
The Model pick is Both teams to score with a model probability of 51, priced around 2.04 by the bookmakers.
What are the Riadi Salmi v Olympique Khouribga probabilities?
Riadi Salmi win 33%, draw 28%, Olympique Khouribga win 38%.
What is the most probable score for Riadi Salmi vs Olympique Khouribga?
Riadi Salmi 1–2 Olympique Khouribga is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Riadi Salmi vs Olympique Khouribga?
Riadi Salmi 1.06, Olympique Khouribga 1.09 – over 2.5 at 36%, BTTS at 51%.
What time is Riadi Salmi vs Olympique Khouribga?
Sunday 15 November 2026, 16:00 WAT, at Stade municipal de Berrechid – Botola 2.