- λ home
- 1.11
- λ away
- 2.24
- Σλ total
- 3.35
- P(over 2.5)
- 64%
- P(BTTS)
- 65%
- Modal score
- 1–2 9.8%
Paris Saint Germain W vs Bayern Munich W prediction & xG model: Bayern Munich W to win
Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick landed ✓
Paris Saint Germain W v Bayern Munich W: how the Arena called it
- Full time
- 1–2
- Votes
- 0
- Takes
- 0
- Back / fade
- 0 / 0
- Arena tipBayern Munich W to win✓
- VotersNobody called this one–
Your call Voting closed at kick-off
This debate is closed. The takes below stay up as a record of what the Arena said.
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How the numbers for Paris Saint Germain W v Bayern Munich W are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to all competitions results (19 and 30 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paris Saint Germain W (home) | 1.66 | 1.30 | 0.45 | 0.96 |
| Bayern Munich W (away) | 1.38 | 2.22 | 0.49 | 1.51 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.66 × 1.30 × 0.45 ≈ 0.96
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 2.47 | 45% |
| Statistical xG feed | 3.50 | 25% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 3.22 | 30% |
| Blended total λ | 3.35 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.11, λaway = 2.24
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 17.8%
- Σ draw cells
- 19.5%
- Σ away-win cells
- 62.7%
- Most probable score
- 1–2 · 9.8%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Paris Saint Germain W | 23.7% | 18.0% | 22.7% | 20.0% |
| X Draw | 27.3% | 11.0% | 20.7% | 15.1% |
| 2 Bayern Munich W | 48.9% | 71.0% | 56.5% | 64.9% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.072 → 7.2% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Paris Saint Germain W | 20.0% | 5.00 | 4.10 | 24.4% | -18.0% | |
| X · Draw | 15.1% | 6.63 | 4.50 | 22.2% | -32.1% | |
| 2 · Bayern Munich W pick | 64.9% | 1.54 | 1.65 | 60.6% | +7.1% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 35.1% | 2.85 | 2.00 | 50.0% | -29.8% | |
| X2 | 80.0% | 1.25 | 1.25 | 80.0% | +0.0% | |
| 12 | 84.9% | 1.18 | 1.22 | 82.0% | +3.6% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Paris Saint Germain W | 23.5% | 4.25 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Bayern Munich W | 76.5% | 1.31 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 83.1% | 1.20 | 1.14 | 87.7% | -5.3% | |
| Under 1.5 | 16.9% | 5.91 | 5.00 | 20.0% | -15.4% | |
| Over 2.5 | 63.8% | 1.57 | 1.50 | 66.7% | -4.3% | |
| Under 2.5 | 36.2% | 2.76 | 2.50 | 40.0% | -9.4% | |
| Over 3.5 | 42.7% | 2.34 | 2.20 | 45.5% | -6.0% | |
| Under 3.5 | 57.3% | 1.75 | 1.62 | 61.7% | -7.2% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes | 64.9% | 1.54 | 1.53 | 65.4% | -0.6% | |
| BTTS no | 35.1% | 2.85 | 2.38 | 42.0% | -16.6% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 17.9% | 5.57 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 35.4% | 2.83 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 46.7% | 2.14 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.649 × 1.65 − 1 = +0.071 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.110 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 2.0% of bankroll
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Paris Saint Germain W | Bayern Munich W |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | WDDWLW | WWDWWW |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 3-2-1 | 5-1-0 |
| Points per match | 1.83 | 2.67 |
| Goals for / match | 1.67 | 2.83 |
| Goals against / match | 1.17 | 0.67 |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 67% |
| BTTS | 50% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 50% |
| Failed to score | 17% | 0% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Away favourites: Bayern Munich W 65%, Paris Saint Germain W 20%. Standings: Paris Saint Germain W 10th on 5, Bayern Munich W 3rd on 8.
Form
Sequence for Paris Saint Germain W: W D D W L W, so three victories in six. Latest: 4–0 at home to Le Havre W. Per match: 1.7 scored, 1.2 conceded.
Sequence for Bayern Munich W: W W D W W W, so five victories in six. Latest: 3–1 at home to Werder Bremen W. 2.8 goals a match in that spell. 3 shut-outs in that run.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Paris Saint Germain W 1.11 · Bayern Munich W 2.24 · total 3.35. Goals expected – 64% for over 2.5 and 65% for both teams to score.
Model selection (graded)
Pre-match selection: Bayern Munich W to win, probability 65%, odds 1.65 v fair 1.54. Most probable score: Paris Saint Germain W 1–2 Bayern Munich W. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →No previous meeting in our data.
UEFA Champions League Women table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Lyon W | 4 | +20 | 10 |
| 2 |  Barcelona W | 4 | +17 | 10 |
| 3 |  Bayern Munich W | 4 | +4 | 8 |
| 4 |  Arsenal W | 4 | +4 | 8 |
| 5 |  Chelsea W | 4 | +3 | 8 |
| 6 |  Manchester City W | 4 | +3 | 6 |
| 7 |  Real Madrid W | 4 | +3 | 6 |
| 8 |  Juventus W | 4 | -1 | 6 |
| 9 |  SL Benfica W | 4 | -3 | 6 |
| 10 |  Paris Saint Germain W | 4 | +4 | 5 |
| 11 |  Køge W | 4 | -5 | 4 |
| 12 |  Roma W | 4 | -7 | 4 |
| 13 |  Inter Milano W | 4 | -8 | 4 |
| 14 |  Servette Chênois W | 4 | -9 | 3 |
| 15 |  Häcken W | 4 | -4 | 2 |
| 16 |  Paris FC W | 4 | -6 | 2 |
| 17 |  OH Leuven W | 4 | -9 | 2 |
| 18 |  Austria Wien W | 4 | -6 | 1 |
More UEFA Champions League Women predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Paris Saint Germain W vs Bayern Munich W?
The Model pick is Bayern Munich W to win with a model probability of 65, priced around 1.65 by the bookmakers.
What are the Paris Saint Germain W v Bayern Munich W probabilities?
Paris Saint Germain W win 20%, draw 15%, Bayern Munich W win 65%.
What is the most probable score for Paris Saint Germain W vs Bayern Munich W?
Paris Saint Germain W 1–2 Bayern Munich W is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Paris Saint Germain W vs Bayern Munich W?
Paris Saint Germain W 1.11, Bayern Munich W 2.24 – over 2.5 at 64%, BTTS at 65%.
What time is Paris Saint Germain W vs Bayern Munich W?
Tuesday 10 November 2026, 21:00 WAT, at Stade Georges Lefevre – UEFA Champions League Women.