- λ home
- 2.95
- λ away
- 1.05
- Σλ total
- 4.00
- P(over 2.5)
- 74%
- P(BTTS)
- 63%
- Modal score
- 2–1 8.4%
Roma W vs Servette Chênois W prediction & xG model: Both teams to score
Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick landed ✓
Roma W v Servette Chênois W: how the Arena called it
- Full time
- 2–1
- Votes
- 0
- Takes
- 0
- Back / fade
- 0 / 0
- Arena tipBoth teams to score✓
- VotersNobody called this one–
Your call Voting closed at kick-off
This debate is closed. The takes below stay up as a record of what the Arena said.
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How the numbers for Roma W v Servette Chênois W are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to all competitions results (24 and 26 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roma W (home) | 1.66 | 1.68 | 0.83 | 2.31 |
| Servette Chênois W (away) | 1.38 | 1.59 | 0.88 | 1.92 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.66 × 1.68 × 0.83 ≈ 2.31
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 4.24 | 45% |
| Statistical xG feed | 4.30 | 25% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 3.75 | 30% |
| Blended total λ | 4.00 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 2.95, λaway = 1.05
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 76.0%
- Σ draw cells
- 13.7%
- Σ away-win cells
- 10.3%
- Most probable score
- 2–1 · 8.4%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Roma W | 47.1% | 71.0% | 78.7% | 74.2% |
| X Draw | 20.3% | 20.0% | 13.5% | 17.3% |
| 2 Servette Chênois W | 32.6% | 9.0% | 7.9% | 8.5% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.060 → 6.0% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Roma W | 74.2% | 1.35 | 1.20 | 83.3% | -10.9% | |
| X · Draw | 17.3% | 5.79 | 7.00 | 14.3% | +20.8% | |
| 2 · Servette Chênois W | 8.5% | 11.73 | 12.00 | 8.3% | +2.3% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 91.5% | 1.09 | 1.02 | 98.0% | -6.7% | |
| X2 | 25.8% | 3.88 | 4.00 | 25.0% | +3.1% | |
| 12 | 82.7% | 1.21 | 1.11 | 90.1% | -8.2% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Roma W | 89.7% | 1.11 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Servette Chênois W | 10.3% | 9.71 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 88.7% | 1.13 | 1.08 | 92.6% | -4.2% | |
| Under 1.5 | 11.3% | 8.88 | 7.00 | 14.3% | -21.2% | |
| Over 2.5 | 74.3% | 1.35 | 1.30 | 76.9% | -3.4% | |
| Under 2.5 | 25.7% | 3.89 | 3.40 | 29.4% | -12.5% | |
| Over 3.5 | 55.2% | 1.81 | 1.73 | 57.8% | -4.6% | |
| Under 3.5 | 44.8% | 2.23 | 2.00 | 50.0% | -10.3% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes pick | 63.4% | 1.58 | 1.73 | 57.8% | +9.6% | |
| BTTS no | 36.6% | 2.73 | 2.00 | 50.0% | -26.8% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 57.7% | 1.73 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 29.2% | 3.42 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 13.1% | 7.61 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.634 × 1.73 − 1 = +0.096 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.132 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 2.0% of bankroll
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Roma W | Servette Chênois W |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | WWLWWW | WDWWWL |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 5-0-1 | 4-1-1 |
| Points per match | 2.50 | 2.17 |
| Goals for / match | 3.00 | 3.17 |
| Goals against / match | 1.33 | 1.83 |
| Over 2.5 | 83% | 100% |
| BTTS | 67% | 83% |
| Clean sheets | 17% | 17% |
| Failed to score | 17% | 0% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Strong home favourites – Roma W 74% to win. Standings: Roma W 12th on 4, Servette Chênois W 14th on 3.
Form
Roma W have five wins from their last six (W W L W W W). Latest: 4–0 away at Como 1907 W. 3.0 goals a match in that spell.
Sequence for Servette Chênois W: W D W W W L, so four victories in six. Latest: 3–1 away at Zürich W. Scoring rate: 3.2 per match – well above average.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Roma W 2.95 · Servette Chênois W 1.05 · total 4.00. Goals expected – 74% for over 2.5 and 63% for both teams to score.
Model selection (graded)
Pre-match selection: Both teams to score, probability 63%, odds 1.73 v fair 1.58. Most probable score: Roma W 2–1 Servette Chênois W. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →No previous meeting in our data.
UEFA Champions League Women table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Lyon W | 4 | +20 | 10 |
| 2 |  Barcelona W | 4 | +17 | 10 |
| 3 |  Bayern Munich W | 4 | +4 | 8 |
| 4 |  Arsenal W | 4 | +4 | 8 |
| 5 |  Chelsea W | 4 | +3 | 8 |
| 6 |  Manchester City W | 4 | +3 | 6 |
| 7 |  Real Madrid W | 4 | +3 | 6 |
| 8 |  Juventus W | 4 | -1 | 6 |
| 9 |  SL Benfica W | 4 | -3 | 6 |
| 10 |  Paris Saint Germain W | 4 | +4 | 5 |
| 11 |  Køge W | 4 | -5 | 4 |
| 12 |  Roma W | 4 | -7 | 4 |
| 13 |  Inter Milano W | 4 | -8 | 4 |
| 14 |  Servette Chênois W | 4 | -9 | 3 |
| 15 |  Häcken W | 4 | -4 | 2 |
| 16 |  Paris FC W | 4 | -6 | 2 |
| 17 |  OH Leuven W | 4 | -9 | 2 |
| 18 |  Austria Wien W | 4 | -6 | 1 |
More UEFA Champions League Women predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Roma W vs Servette Chênois W?
The Model pick is Both teams to score with a model probability of 63, priced around 1.73 by the bookmakers.
What are the Roma W v Servette Chênois W probabilities?
Roma W win 74%, draw 17%, Servette Chênois W win 9%.
What is the most probable score for Roma W vs Servette Chênois W?
Roma W 2–1 Servette Chênois W is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Roma W vs Servette Chênois W?
Roma W 2.95, Servette Chênois W 1.05 – over 2.5 at 74%, BTTS at 63%.
What time is Roma W vs Servette Chênois W?
Tuesday 10 November 2026, 21:00 WAT, at Stadio Tre Fontane – UEFA Champions League Women.