- λ home
- 0.54
- λ away
- 1.61
- Σλ total
- 2.16
- P(over 2.5)
- 39%
- P(BTTS)
- 43%
- Modal score
- 0–1 18.6%
Apollon Pontou vs Kallithea prediction & xG model: Over 1.5 goals
In-play probabilities
The pre-match expected goals, scaled to the minutes left and added to the current score. Updates every 30 seconds.
Pre-match: Apollon Pontou 16% · draw 17% · Kallithea 67%. The live model cannot see red cards or substitutions – read it as a guide.
Apollon Pontou v Kallithea: who are you backing?
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How the numbers for Apollon Pontou v Kallithea are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Not enough history for team ratings – the goal estimate uses the statistical feed and the market line only.
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Statistical xG feed | 1.90 | 45% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 2.37 | 55% |
| Blended total λ | 2.16 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 0.54, λaway = 1.61
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 12.2%
- Σ draw cells
- 24.2%
- Σ away-win cells
- 63.6%
- Most probable score
- 0–1 · 18.6%
Blending with the market
With no ratings for these teams, the statistical feed is blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Apollon Pontou | – | 22.0% | 7.1% | 15.8% |
| X Draw | – | 17.0% | 17.3% | 17.1% |
| 2 Kallithea | – | 61.0% | 75.6% | 67.1% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.122 → 12.2% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Apollon Pontou | 15.8% | 6.35 | 12.50 | 8.0% | +96.9% | |
| X · Draw | 17.1% | 5.84 | 5.15 | 19.4% | -11.8% | |
| 2 · Kallithea | 67.1% | 1.49 | 1.18 | 84.7% | -20.8% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 32.9% | 3.04 | 3.65 | 27.4% | +20.0% | |
| X2 | 84.2% | 1.19 | – | – | – | |
| 12 | 82.9% | 1.21 | 1.08 | 92.6% | -10.5% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Apollon Pontou | 19.0% | 5.26 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Kallithea | 81.0% | 1.23 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 pick | 66.3% | 1.51 | 1.31 | 76.3% | -13.2% | |
| Under 1.5 | 33.7% | 2.96 | 2.92 | 34.2% | -1.5% | |
| Over 2.5 | 39.4% | 2.54 | 2.17 | 46.1% | -14.4% | |
| Under 2.5 | 60.6% | 1.65 | 1.59 | 62.9% | -3.7% | |
| Over 3.5 | 19.6% | 5.09 | 4.10 | 24.4% | -19.5% | |
| Under 3.5 | 80.4% | 1.24 | 1.16 | 86.2% | -6.8% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes | 43.2% | 2.32 | 3.04 | 32.9% | +31.3% | |
| BTTS no | 56.8% | 1.76 | 1.30 | 76.9% | -26.2% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 11.4% | 8.80 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 45.6% | 2.19 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 43.1% | 2.32 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.663 × 1.31 − 1 = -0.132 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.000 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.0% of bankroll (no stake – the price has no edge)
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Apollon Pontou | Kallithea |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | WLLLWD | WLDDWW |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 2-1-3 | 3-2-1 |
| Points per match | 1.17 | 1.83 |
| Goals for / match | 0.83 | 0.83 |
| Goals against / match | 1.33 | 0.33 |
| Over 2.5 | 33% | 0% |
| BTTS | 50% | 17% |
| Clean sheets | 17% | 67% |
| Failed to score | 33% | 33% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Kallithea favoured on the road at 67% – the ratings gap outweighs home advantage. Standings: Apollon Pontou 14th on 8, Kallithea 2nd on 20.
Form
Apollon Pontou, last six: W L L L W D – two wins in total. Latest: 2–1 at home to Panserraikos. The scoring rate has dropped to 0.8 per match.
Kallithea, last six: W L D D W W – three wins in total. Latest: 2–0 at home to Panionios. The scoring rate has dropped to 0.8 per match. 4 shut-outs in that run.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Apollon Pontou 0.54 · Kallithea 1.61 · total 2.16. Low total: under 2.5 61%.
Model selection
Model selection: Over 1.5 goals, probability 66%, odds 1.31 v fair 1.51. Most probable score: Apollon Pontou 0–2 Kallithea. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →No previous meeting in our data.
Super League 2 table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Marko | 10 | +13 | 26 |
| 2 |  Kallithea | 10 | +6 | 20 |
| 3 |  Larisa | 10 | +9 | 19 |
| 4 |  Niki Volos | 10 | +5 | 17 |
| 5 |  Panionios | 10 | +4 | 17 |
| 6 |  Panserraikos | 10 | 0 | 17 |
| 7 |  Ellas Syros | 10 | +7 | 16 |
| 8 |  Panthrakikos | 10 | 0 | 13 |
| 9 |  Asteras Tripolis II | 10 | -1 | 13 |
| 10 |  Anagennisi Karditsas | 10 | -2 | 12 |
| 11 |  PAOK II | 10 | -3 | 12 |
| 12 |  Pyrgos 1968 | 10 | -6 | 9 |
| 13 |  Nestos Chrisoupolis | 10 | -6 | 8 |
| 14 |  Apollon Pontou | 10 | -6 | 8 |
| 15 |  Olympiakos Piraeus II | 10 | -9 | 6 |
| 16 |  Zakynthos | 10 | -11 | 4 |
Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Apollon Pontou vs Kallithea?
The Model pick is Over 1.5 goals with a model probability of 66, priced around 1.31 by the bookmakers.
What are the Apollon Pontou v Kallithea probabilities?
Apollon Pontou win 16%, draw 17%, Kallithea win 67%.
What is the most probable score for Apollon Pontou vs Kallithea?
Apollon Pontou 0–2 Kallithea is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Apollon Pontou vs Kallithea?
Apollon Pontou 0.54, Kallithea 1.61 – over 2.5 at 39%, BTTS at 43%.
What time is Apollon Pontou vs Kallithea?
Sunday 15 November 2026, 11:30 WAT – Super League 2.