- λ home
- 1.20
- λ away
- 0.30
- Σλ total
- 1.50
- P(over 2.5)
- 19%
- P(BTTS)
- 48%
- Modal score
- 1–0 26.8%
Aarhus vs Egnatia Rrogozhinë prediction & xG model: Aarhus to win
Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick missed ✗
Aarhus v Egnatia Rrogozhinë: how the Arena called it
- Full time
- 1–1
- Votes
- 0
- Takes
- 0
- Back / fade
- 0 / 0
- Arena tipAarhus to win✗
- VotersNobody called this one–
Your call Voting closed at kick-off
This debate is closed. The takes below stay up as a record of what the Arena said.
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How the numbers for Aarhus v Egnatia Rrogozhinë are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to all competitions results (40 and 33 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aarhus (home) | 1.66 | 1.33 | 0.67 | 1.48 |
| Egnatia Rrogozhinë (away) | 1.38 | 1.49 | 0.68 | 1.39 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.66 × 1.33 × 0.67 ≈ 1.48
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 2.87 | 64% |
| Statistical xG feed | 1.50 | 36% |
| Blended total λ | 1.50 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.20, λaway = 0.30
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 59.7%
- Σ draw cells
- 31.1%
- Σ away-win cells
- 9.2%
- Most probable score
- 1–0 · 26.8%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Aarhus | 39.0% | 65.0% | 60.4% | 63.1% |
| X Draw | 26.1% | 25.0% | 23.4% | 24.3% |
| 2 Egnatia Rrogozhinë | 35.0% | 10.0% | 16.2% | 12.6% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.068 → 6.8% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Aarhus pick | 63.1% | 1.59 | 1.55 | 64.5% | -2.2% | |
| X · Draw | 24.3% | 4.11 | 4.00 | 25.0% | -2.7% | |
| 2 · Egnatia Rrogozhinë | 12.6% | 7.95 | 5.80 | 17.2% | -27.0% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 87.4% | 1.14 | 1.14 | 87.7% | -0.3% | |
| X2 | 36.9% | 2.71 | 2.38 | 42.0% | -12.1% | |
| 12 | 75.7% | 1.32 | 1.22 | 82.0% | -7.7% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Aarhus | 83.4% | 1.20 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Egnatia Rrogozhinë | 16.6% | 6.01 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 44.2% | 2.26 | – | – | – | |
| Under 1.5 | 55.8% | 1.79 | – | – | – | |
| Over 2.5 | 19.1% | 5.23 | – | – | – | |
| Under 2.5 | 80.9% | 1.24 | – | – | – | |
| Over 3.5 | 6.6% | 15.23 | – | – | – | |
| Under 3.5 | 93.4% | 1.07 | – | – | – | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes | 48.5% | 2.06 | 1.75 | 57.1% | -15.2% | |
| BTTS no | 51.5% | 1.94 | 2.00 | 50.0% | +3.0% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 37.1% | 2.69 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 55.3% | 1.81 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 7.5% | 13.27 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.631 × 1.55 − 1 = -0.022 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.000 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.0% of bankroll (no stake – the price has no edge)
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Aarhus | Egnatia Rrogozhinë |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | DLWWDW | WDWWLW |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 3-2-1 | 4-1-1 |
| Points per match | 1.83 | 2.17 |
| Goals for / match | 2.33 | 1.83 |
| Goals against / match | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Over 2.5 | 67% | 67% |
| BTTS | 67% | 83% |
| Clean sheets | 17% | 17% |
| Failed to score | 17% | 0% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Strong home favourites – Aarhus 63% to win. Standings: Aarhus 24th on 2, Egnatia Rrogozhinë 26th on 2.
Form
Sequence for Aarhus: D L W W D W, so three victories in six. Latest: 1–1 away at FC Copenhagen. 2.3 goals a match in that spell.
Sequence for Egnatia Rrogozhinë: W D W W L W, so four victories in six. Latest: 3–1 at home to Vllaznia Shkodër. Per match: 1.8 scored, 1.0 conceded.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Aarhus 1.20 · Egnatia Rrogozhinë 0.30 · total 1.50. A quiet game expected, with under 2.5 at 81%.
Model selection (graded)
Pre-match selection: Aarhus to win, probability 63%, odds 1.55 v fair 1.59. Most probable score: Aarhus 1–0 Egnatia Rrogozhinë. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →No previous meeting in our data.
UEFA Europa Conference League table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  FC Lugano | 3 | +7 | 9 |
| 2 |  Panathinaikos | 3 | +6 | 9 |
| 3 |  Twente | 3 | +6 | 9 |
| 4 |  Monaco | 3 | +6 | 9 |
| 5 |  Brighton | 3 | +5 | 7 |
| 6 |  Brann | 3 | +4 | 7 |
| 7 |  FC Copenhagen | 3 | +4 | 7 |
| 8 |  Universitatea Craiova | 3 | +4 | 7 |
| 9 |  Mjallby AIF | 3 | +4 | 7 |
| 10 |  St. Truiden | 3 | +3 | 7 |
| 11 |  Ajax | 3 | +6 | 6 |
| 12 |  Trabzonspor | 3 | +3 | 6 |
| 13 |  HNK Hajduk Split | 3 | +1 | 6 |
| 14 |  SC Freiburg | 3 | -1 | 6 |
| 15 |  FK Crvena Zvezda | 3 | 0 | 4 |
| 16 |  Atalanta | 3 | 0 | 4 |
| 17 |  SC Braga | 3 | -1 | 4 |
| 18 |  Gent | 3 | -1 | 4 |
| 19 |  Riga | 3 | 0 | 3 |
| 20 |  FC Thun | 3 | 0 | 3 |
| 21 |  Borac Banja Luka | 3 | -1 | 3 |
| 22 |  Lincoln Red Imps FC | 3 | -3 | 3 |
| 23 |  FK Jablonec | 3 | -1 | 2 |
| 24 |  Aarhus | 3 | -1 | 2 |
| 25 |  FC Nordsjaelland | 3 | -2 | 2 |
| 26 |  Egnatia Rrogozhinë | 3 | -2 | 2 |
| 27 |  Kairat Almaty | 3 | -4 | 2 |
| 28 |  CSKA Sofia | 3 | -2 | 1 |
| 29 |  FC Iberia 1999 | 3 | -3 | 1 |
| 30 |  Pafos | 3 | -4 | 1 |
| 31 |  Getafe | 3 | -4 | 1 |
| 32 |  Heart Of Midlothian | 3 | -4 | 1 |
| 33 |  KuPS | 3 | -4 | 1 |
| 34 |  FC Midtjylland | 3 | -6 | 1 |
| 35 |  Inter Club d'Escaldes | 3 | -5 | 0 |
| 36 |  Kauno Žalgiris | 3 | -10 | 0 |
More UEFA Europa Conference League predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Aarhus vs Egnatia Rrogozhinë?
The Model pick is Aarhus to win with a model probability of 63, priced around 1.55 by the bookmakers.
What are the Aarhus v Egnatia Rrogozhinë probabilities?
Aarhus win 63%, draw 24%, Egnatia Rrogozhinë win 13%.
What is the most probable score for Aarhus vs Egnatia Rrogozhinë?
Aarhus 1–0 Egnatia Rrogozhinë is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Aarhus vs Egnatia Rrogozhinë?
Aarhus 1.20, Egnatia Rrogozhinë 0.30 – over 2.5 at 19%, BTTS at 48%.
What time is Aarhus vs Egnatia Rrogozhinë?
Thursday 22 October 2026, 20:00 WAT, at Vejlby Stadion – UEFA Europa Conference League.