- λ home
- 1.35
- λ away
- 1.34
- Σλ total
- 2.69
- P(over 2.5)
- 53%
- P(BTTS)
- 52%
- Modal score
- 1–1 12.3%
Los Cabos United vs Chapulineros prediction & xG model: Under 3.5 goals
Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick landed ✓
Los Cabos United v Chapulineros: how the Arena called it
- Full time
- 2–0
- Votes
- 0
- Takes
- 0
- Back / fade
- 0 / 0
- Arena tipUnder 3.5 goals✓
- VotersNobody called this one–
Your call Voting closed at kick-off
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How the numbers for Los Cabos United v Chapulineros are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to league results (8 and 10 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Los Cabos United (home) | 1.46 | 0.84 | 1.10 | 1.36 |
| Chapulineros (away) | 1.34 | 0.91 | 1.01 | 1.24 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.46 × 0.84 × 1.10 ≈ 1.36
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 2.59 | 45% |
| Statistical xG feed | 2.63 | 25% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 2.88 | 30% |
| Blended total λ | 2.69 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.35, λaway = 1.34
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 37.3%
- Σ draw cells
- 25.9%
- Σ away-win cells
- 36.9%
- Most probable score
- 1–1 · 12.3%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Los Cabos United | 38.9% | 25.0% | 39.5% | 35.9% |
| X Draw | 27.7% | 11.0% | 26.4% | 23.3% |
| 2 Chapulineros | 33.4% | 64.0% | 34.2% | 40.8% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.121 → 12.1% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Los Cabos United | 35.9% | 2.78 | 2.26 | 44.2% | -18.8% | |
| X · Draw | 23.3% | 4.30 | 3.38 | 29.6% | -21.4% | |
| 2 · Chapulineros | 40.8% | 2.45 | 2.61 | 38.3% | +6.6% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 59.2% | 1.69 | 1.36 | 73.5% | -19.5% | |
| X2 | 64.1% | 1.56 | 1.48 | 67.6% | -5.1% | |
| 12 | 76.7% | 1.30 | 1.22 | 82.0% | -6.4% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Los Cabos United | 46.8% | 2.14 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Chapulineros | 53.2% | 1.88 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 75.9% | 1.32 | 1.18 | 84.7% | -10.4% | |
| Under 1.5 | 24.1% | 4.15 | 3.92 | 25.5% | -5.5% | |
| Over 2.5 | 52.7% | 1.90 | 1.67 | 59.9% | -12.0% | |
| Under 2.5 | 47.3% | 2.11 | 2.04 | 49.0% | -3.5% | |
| Over 3.5 | 31.2% | 3.21 | 2.66 | 37.6% | -17.1% | |
| Under 3.5 pick | 68.8% | 1.45 | 1.37 | 73.0% | -5.7% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes | 51.8% | 1.93 | 1.55 | 64.5% | -19.7% | |
| BTTS no | 48.2% | 2.07 | 2.20 | 45.5% | +6.1% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 29.0% | 3.45 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 42.3% | 2.36 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 28.7% | 3.48 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.688 × 1.37 − 1 = -0.057 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.000 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.0% of bankroll (no stake – the price has no edge)
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Los Cabos United | Chapulineros |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | LLDLWW | DDWWWL |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 2-1-3 | 3-2-1 |
| Points per match | 1.17 | 1.83 |
| Goals for / match | 0.83 | 1.67 |
| Goals against / match | 1.33 | 1.50 |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 67% |
| BTTS | 50% | 100% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 0% |
| Failed to score | 17% | 0% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Probabilities are almost level: 36 / 23 / 41% for home, draw, away.
Form
Sequence for Los Cabos United: L L D L W W, so two victories in six. Latest: 1–2 away at Montañeses. The scoring rate has dropped to 0.8 per match. 3 shut-outs in that run.
Chapulineros, last six: D D W W W L – three wins in total. Latest: 1–1 at home to Cordobés. Per match: 1.7 scored, 1.5 conceded. No shut-outs in that run.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Los Cabos United 1.35 · Chapulineros 1.34 · total 2.69. Balanced goal lines: over 2.5 53%, BTTS 52%.
Model selection (graded)
Pre-match selection: Under 3.5 goals, probability 69%, odds 1.37 v fair 1.45. Most probable score: Los Cabos United 0–1 Chapulineros. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →No previous meeting in our data.
More predictions
League page →
Cordobés1
Pioneros de Cancún0
Lobos ULMX1
Deportiva Venados3
H2O Purepechas
Inter Playa del CarmenFrequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Los Cabos United vs Chapulineros?
The Model pick is Under 3.5 goals with a model probability of 69, priced around 1.37 by the bookmakers.
What are the Los Cabos United v Chapulineros probabilities?
Los Cabos United win 36%, draw 23%, Chapulineros win 41%.
What is the most probable score for Los Cabos United vs Chapulineros?
Los Cabos United 0–1 Chapulineros is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Los Cabos United vs Chapulineros?
Los Cabos United 1.35, Chapulineros 1.34 – over 2.5 at 53%, BTTS at 52%.
What time is Los Cabos United vs Chapulineros?
Sunday 15 November 2026, 03:00 WAT – .