- λ home
- 1.52
- λ away
- 1.49
- Σλ total
- 3.01
- P(over 2.5)
- 56%
- P(BTTS)
- 54%
- Modal score
- 1–1 11.2%
Lobos ULMX vs Deportiva Venados prediction & xG model: Over 2.5 goals
In-play probabilities
The pre-match expected goals, scaled to the minutes left and added to the current score. Updates every 30 seconds.
Pre-match: Lobos ULMX 42% · draw 18% · Deportiva Venados 41%. The live model cannot see red cards or substitutions – read it as a guide.
Lobos ULMX v Deportiva Venados: who are you backing?
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How the numbers for Lobos ULMX v Deportiva Venados are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Not enough history for team ratings – the goal estimate uses the statistical feed and the market line only.
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Statistical xG feed | 3.20 | 45% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 2.85 | 55% |
| Blended total λ | 3.01 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.52, λaway = 1.49
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 38.6%
- Σ draw cells
- 24.3%
- Σ away-win cells
- 37.1%
- Most probable score
- 1–1 · 11.2%
Blending with the market
With no ratings for these teams, the statistical feed is blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Lobos ULMX | – | 49.0% | 32.2% | 42.0% |
| X Draw | – | 11.0% | 26.5% | 17.5% |
| 2 Deportiva Venados | – | 40.0% | 41.2% | 40.5% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.108 → 10.8% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Lobos ULMX | 42.0% | 2.38 | 2.80 | 35.7% | +17.5% | |
| X · Draw | 17.5% | 5.70 | 3.40 | 29.4% | -40.4% | |
| 2 · Deportiva Venados | 40.5% | 2.47 | 2.19 | 45.7% | -11.3% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 59.5% | 1.68 | 1.52 | 65.8% | -9.6% | |
| X2 | 58.0% | 1.72 | 1.33 | 75.2% | -22.8% | |
| 12 | 82.5% | 1.21 | 1.21 | 82.6% | -0.2% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Lobos ULMX | 50.9% | 1.97 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Deportiva Venados | 49.1% | 2.04 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 78.6% | 1.27 | 1.18 | 84.7% | -7.3% | |
| Under 1.5 | 21.4% | 4.66 | 3.92 | 25.5% | -15.9% | |
| Over 2.5 pick | 56.1% | 1.78 | 1.69 | 59.2% | -5.1% | |
| Under 2.5 | 43.9% | 2.28 | 2.01 | 49.8% | -11.8% | |
| Over 3.5 | 34.5% | 2.90 | 2.70 | 37.0% | -6.8% | |
| Under 3.5 | 65.5% | 1.53 | 1.36 | 73.5% | -10.9% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes | 53.8% | 1.86 | 1.56 | 64.1% | -16.1% | |
| BTTS no | 46.2% | 2.16 | 2.22 | 45.0% | +2.7% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 30.6% | 3.26 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 39.6% | 2.53 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 29.8% | 3.36 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.561 × 1.69 − 1 = -0.051 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.000 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.0% of bankroll (no stake – the price has no edge)
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Lobos ULMX | Deportiva Venados |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | WDWWLW | DLWWLL |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 4-1-1 | 2-1-3 |
| Points per match | 2.17 | 1.17 |
| Goals for / match | 1.67 | 1.83 |
| Goals against / match | 0.83 | 2.00 |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 83% |
| BTTS | 50% | 100% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 0% |
| Failed to score | 17% | 0% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
No clear favourite in the grid – Lobos ULMX 42%, draw 18%, Deportiva Venados 41%.
Form
Lobos ULMX have four wins from their last six (W D W W L W). Latest: 2–1 away at Inter Playa del Carmen. Per match: 1.7 scored, 0.8 conceded.
Deportiva Venados, last six: D L W W L L – two wins in total. Latest: 1–1 at home to Tritons Vallarta. Per match: 1.8 scored, 2.0 conceded. No shut-outs in that run.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Lobos ULMX 1.52 · Deportiva Venados 1.49 · total 3.01. Goals expected – 56% for over 2.5 and 54% for both teams to score.
Model selection
Selection: Over 2.5 goals, probability 56%, odds 1.69 v fair 1.78. Most probable score: Lobos ULMX 2–1 Deportiva Venados. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →No previous meeting in our data.
More predictions
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Cordobés
Pioneros de CancúnFrequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Lobos ULMX vs Deportiva Venados?
The Model pick is Over 2.5 goals with a model probability of 56, priced around 1.69 by the bookmakers.
What are the Lobos ULMX v Deportiva Venados probabilities?
Lobos ULMX win 42%, draw 18%, Deportiva Venados win 41%.
What is the most probable score for Lobos ULMX vs Deportiva Venados?
Lobos ULMX 2–1 Deportiva Venados is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Lobos ULMX vs Deportiva Venados?
Lobos ULMX 1.52, Deportiva Venados 1.49 – over 2.5 at 56%, BTTS at 54%.
What time is Lobos ULMX vs Deportiva Venados?
Sunday 15 November 2026, 02:00 WAT – .