- λ home
- 1.31
- λ away
- 1.10
- Σλ total
- 2.41
- P(over 2.5)
- 44%
- P(BTTS)
- 51%
- Modal score
- 1–1 12.9%
Al Shoalah vs Qilwah prediction & xG model: Under 2.5 goals
In-play probabilities
The pre-match expected goals, scaled to the minutes left and added to the current score. Updates every 30 seconds.
Pre-match: Al Shoalah 43% · draw 24% · Qilwah 33%. The live model cannot see red cards or substitutions – read it as a guide.
Al Shoalah v Qilwah: who are you backing?
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How the numbers for Al Shoalah v Qilwah are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Not enough history for team ratings – the goal estimate uses the statistical feed and the market line only.
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Statistical xG feed | 2.40 | 45% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 2.43 | 55% |
| Blended total λ | 2.41 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.31, λaway = 1.10
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 41.4%
- Σ draw cells
- 27.4%
- Σ away-win cells
- 31.2%
- Most probable score
- 1–1 · 12.9%
Blending with the market
With no ratings for these teams, the statistical feed is blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Al Shoalah | – | 46.0% | 39.1% | 43.1% |
| X Draw | – | 19.0% | 31.0% | 24.0% |
| 2 Qilwah | – | 35.0% | 30.0% | 32.9% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.113 → 11.3% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Al Shoalah | 43.1% | 2.32 | 2.30 | 43.5% | -0.9% | |
| X · Draw | 24.0% | 4.16 | 2.90 | 34.5% | -30.3% | |
| 2 · Qilwah | 32.9% | 3.04 | 3.00 | 33.3% | -1.4% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 67.1% | 1.49 | 1.29 | 77.5% | -13.4% | |
| X2 | 56.9% | 1.76 | 1.47 | 68.0% | -16.3% | |
| 12 | 76.0% | 1.32 | 1.28 | 78.1% | -2.8% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Al Shoalah | 56.7% | 1.76 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Qilwah | 43.3% | 2.31 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 69.5% | 1.44 | – | – | – | |
| Under 1.5 | 30.5% | 3.28 | – | – | – | |
| Over 2.5 | 43.6% | 2.30 | 2.15 | 46.5% | -6.3% | |
| Under 2.5 pick | 56.4% | 1.77 | 1.67 | 59.9% | -5.7% | |
| Over 3.5 | 22.4% | 4.46 | – | – | – | |
| Under 3.5 | 77.6% | 1.29 | – | – | – | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes | 51.4% | 1.95 | 1.82 | 54.9% | -6.4% | |
| BTTS no | 48.6% | 2.06 | 1.85 | 54.1% | -10.1% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 30.6% | 3.27 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 44.9% | 2.23 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 24.5% | 4.09 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.564 × 1.67 − 1 = -0.057 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.000 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.0% of bankroll (no stake – the price has no edge)
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Al Shoalah | Qilwah |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | WDLLWW | DLWDL |
| Matches | 6 | 5 |
| W-D-L | 3-1-2 | 1-2-2 |
| Points per match | 1.67 | 1.00 |
| Goals for / match | 1.83 | 1.00 |
| Goals against / match | 1.33 | 1.00 |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 20% |
| BTTS | 50% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 20% |
| Failed to score | 33% | 20% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Al Shoalah ahead at 43%, against 33% for Qilwah and 24% for the draw. Standings: Al Shoalah 14th on 7, Qilwah 21st on 5.
Form
Al Shoalah have three wins from their last six (W D L L W W). Latest: 1–0 away at Al Rawdhah. Per match: 1.8 scored, 1.3 conceded.
Qilwah, last five: D L W D L – one win in total. Latest: 1–1 at home to Al Qous. Per match: 1.0 scored, 1.0 conceded.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Al Shoalah 1.31 · Qilwah 1.10 · total 2.41. Balanced goal lines: over 2.5 44%, BTTS 51%.
Model selection
Highest-rated market: Under 2.5 goals, probability 56%, odds 1.67 v fair 1.77. Most probable score: Al Shoalah 1–0 Qilwah. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →No previous meeting in our data.
Division 2 table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Al Sharq | 6 | +11 | 14 |
| 2 |  Al Sahel | 6 | +5 | 13 |
| 3 |  Al-Wajj | 6 | +3 | 11 |
| 4 |  Al Arabi SC | 6 | +3 | 11 |
| 5 |  Al Qalah | 4 | +7 | 10 |
| 6 |  Al-Kawkab | 5 | +2 | 10 |
| 7 |  Baish | 5 | +2 | 10 |
| 8 |  Al-Ain | 4 | +6 | 9 |
| 9 |  Al Safa | 5 | -2 | 9 |
| 10 |  Al Entesar | 6 | +1 | 8 |
| 11 |  Al Taraji | 6 | -3 | 8 |
| 12 |  Al Qwarah | 6 | +2 | 7 |
| 13 |  Al Rawdhah | 5 | +1 | 7 |
| 14 |  Al Shoalah | 5 | 0 | 7 |
| 15 |  Arar | 5 | -1 | 7 |
| 16 |  Al-Washm | 5 | -2 | 7 |
| 17 |  Al Najoom | 6 | -2 | 7 |
| 18 |  Al Loa | 5 | -4 | 7 |
| 19 |  Jerash | 3 | +4 | 6 |
| 20 |  Al Hada | 5 | +1 | 6 |
| 21 |  Qilwah | 5 | 0 | 5 |
| 22 |  Al Gottah | 5 | -1 | 5 |
| 23 |  Al Rayan | 5 | -1 | 5 |
| 24 |  Al Jubail | 6 | -1 | 5 |
| 25 |  Al Nairyah | 4 | 0 | 4 |
| 26 |  Najran | 4 | -2 | 4 |
| 27 |  Afif | 6 | -5 | 4 |
| 28 |  Al Qous | 6 | -6 | 4 |
| 29 |  Al Baten | 5 | -5 | 3 |
| 30 |  Jubbah | 6 | -6 | 3 |
| 31 |  Mudhar Club | 4 | -3 | 2 |
| 32 |  Hetten FC | 2 | -4 | 0 |
More Division 2 predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Al Shoalah vs Qilwah?
The Model pick is Under 2.5 goals with a model probability of 56, priced around 1.67 by the bookmakers.
What are the Al Shoalah v Qilwah probabilities?
Al Shoalah win 43%, draw 24%, Qilwah win 33%.
What is the most probable score for Al Shoalah vs Qilwah?
Al Shoalah 1–0 Qilwah is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Al Shoalah vs Qilwah?
Al Shoalah 1.31, Qilwah 1.10 – over 2.5 at 44%, BTTS at 51%.
What time is Al Shoalah vs Qilwah?
Saturday 14 November 2026, 13:05 WAT – Division 2.