- λ home
- 1.58
- λ away
- 0.77
- Σλ total
- 2.35
- P(over 2.5)
- 45%
- P(BTTS)
- 53%
- Modal score
- 1–0 15.1%
Al Najoom vs Jubbah prediction & xG model: Al Najoom to win
Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick missed ✗
Al Najoom v Jubbah: how the Arena called it
- Full time
- 1–2
- Votes
- 0
- Takes
- 0
- Back / fade
- 0 / 0
- Arena tipAl Najoom to win✗
- VotersNobody called this one–
Your call Voting closed at kick-off
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How the numbers for Al Najoom v Jubbah are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to league results (10 and 12 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Al Najoom (home) | 1.47 | 0.71 | 1.14 | 1.19 |
| Jubbah (away) | 1.33 | 0.79 | 0.92 | 0.98 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.47 × 0.71 × 1.14 ≈ 1.19
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 2.17 | 45% |
| Statistical xG feed | 2.09 | 25% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 2.57 | 30% |
| Blended total λ | 2.35 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.58, λaway = 0.77
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 56.7%
- Σ draw cells
- 25.2%
- Σ away-win cells
- 18.1%
- Most probable score
- 1–0 · 15.1%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Al Najoom | 39.8% | 67.0% | 48.5% | 59.2% |
| X Draw | 30.7% | 15.0% | 27.2% | 20.1% |
| 2 Jubbah | 29.4% | 18.0% | 24.3% | 20.6% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.114 → 11.4% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Al Najoom pick | 59.2% | 1.69 | 1.85 | 54.1% | +9.6% | |
| X · Draw | 20.1% | 4.97 | 3.30 | 30.3% | -33.6% | |
| 2 · Jubbah | 20.6% | 4.85 | 3.70 | 27.0% | -23.7% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 79.4% | 1.26 | 1.22 | 82.0% | -3.2% | |
| X2 | 40.8% | 2.45 | 1.80 | 55.6% | -26.6% | |
| 12 | 79.9% | 1.25 | 1.25 | 80.0% | -0.2% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Al Najoom | 74.2% | 1.35 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Jubbah | 25.8% | 3.87 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 68.1% | 1.47 | – | – | – | |
| Under 1.5 | 31.9% | 3.13 | – | – | – | |
| Over 2.5 | 44.6% | 2.24 | 2.00 | 50.0% | -10.9% | |
| Under 2.5 | 55.4% | 1.80 | 1.80 | 55.6% | -0.2% | |
| Over 3.5 | 21.1% | 4.74 | – | – | – | |
| Under 3.5 | 78.9% | 1.27 | – | – | – | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes | 53.4% | 1.87 | 1.80 | 55.6% | -3.9% | |
| BTTS no | 46.6% | 2.15 | 1.84 | 54.3% | -14.2% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 39.6% | 2.52 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 44.4% | 2.25 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 16.0% | 6.26 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.592 × 1.85 − 1 = +0.096 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.113 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 2.0% of bankroll
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Al Najoom | Jubbah |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | WDLWLL | LDLDDL |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 2-1-3 | 0-3-3 |
| Points per match | 1.17 | 0.50 |
| Goals for / match | 0.67 | 0.67 |
| Goals against / match | 1.00 | 1.67 |
| Over 2.5 | 33% | 33% |
| BTTS | 33% | 67% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 17% |
| Failed to score | 33% | 33% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Al Najoom ahead at 59%, against 21% for Jubbah and 20% for the draw. Standings: Al Najoom 20th on 7, Jubbah 25th on 6.
Form
Al Najoom, last six: W D L W L L – two wins in total. Latest: 1–0 away at Najran. The scoring rate has dropped to 0.7 per match. 3 shut-outs in that run.
Jubbah, last six: L D L D D L – zero wins in total. Latest: 1–3 at home to Al-Kawkab. Only 0.7 goals a match in that spell.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Al Najoom 1.58 · Jubbah 0.77 · total 2.35. Balanced goal lines: over 2.5 45%, BTTS 53%.
Model selection (graded)
Pre-match selection: Al Najoom to win, probability 59%, odds 1.85 v fair 1.69. Most probable score: Al Najoom 1–0 Jubbah. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →No previous meeting in our data.
Division 2 table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Al Sharq | 7 | +13 | 17 |
| 2 |  Al Sahel | 7 | +4 | 13 |
| 3 |  Al-Wajj | 7 | +3 | 12 |
| 4 |  Al Qalah | 5 | +7 | 11 |
| 5 |  Al Entesar | 7 | +2 | 11 |
| 6 |  Al Arabi SC | 7 | +1 | 11 |
| 7 |  Al-Ain | 5 | +6 | 10 |
| 8 |  Al-Kawkab | 5 | +2 | 10 |
| 9 |  Al Shoalah | 6 | +2 | 10 |
| 10 |  Baish | 5 | +2 | 10 |
| 11 |  Al Loa | 6 | -2 | 10 |
| 12 |  Al Safa | 6 | -2 | 10 |
| 13 |  Al Hada | 6 | +3 | 9 |
| 14 |  Al Taraji | 7 | -3 | 9 |
| 15 |  Al Qwarah | 7 | +2 | 8 |
| 16 |  Arar | 6 | -1 | 8 |
| 17 |  Al Nairyah | 5 | +1 | 7 |
| 18 |  Al Rawdhah | 6 | -1 | 7 |
| 19 |  Al-Washm | 6 | -3 | 7 |
| 20 |  Al Najoom | 7 | -3 | 7 |
| 21 |  Jerash | 4 | +2 | 6 |
| 22 |  Al Gottah | 6 | -1 | 6 |
| 23 |  Al Rayan | 6 | -1 | 6 |
| 24 |  Al Jubail | 7 | -1 | 6 |
| 25 |  Jubbah | 7 | -5 | 6 |
| 26 |  Qilwah | 6 | -2 | 5 |
| 27 |  Afif | 7 | -5 | 5 |
| 28 |  Al Qous | 7 | -6 | 5 |
| 29 |  Najran | 4 | -2 | 4 |
| 30 |  Al Baten | 5 | -5 | 3 |
| 31 |  Mudhar Club | 4 | -3 | 2 |
| 32 |  Hetten FC | 2 | -4 | 0 |
More Division 2 predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Al Najoom vs Jubbah?
The Model pick is Al Najoom to win with a model probability of 59, priced around 1.85 by the bookmakers.
What are the Al Najoom v Jubbah probabilities?
Al Najoom win 59%, draw 20%, Jubbah win 21%.
What is the most probable score for Al Najoom vs Jubbah?
Al Najoom 1–0 Jubbah is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Al Najoom vs Jubbah?
Al Najoom 1.58, Jubbah 0.77 – over 2.5 at 45%, BTTS at 53%.
What time is Al Najoom vs Jubbah?
Saturday 14 November 2026, 12:55 WAT – Division 2.