- λ home
- 2.66
- λ away
- 0.67
- Σλ total
- 3.33
- P(over 2.5)
- 66%
- P(BTTS)
- 47%
- Modal score
- 2–0 12.6%
Nissa vs Enna prediction & xG model: Over 2.5 goals
Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick landed ✓
Nissa v Enna: how the Arena called it
- Full time
- 3–0
- Votes
- 0
- Takes
- 0
- Back / fade
- 0 / 0
- Arena tipOver 2.5 goals✓
- VotersNobody called this one–
Your call Voting closed at kick-off
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- No takes yet. Say what you think – the first take sits at the top.
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How the numbers for Nissa v Enna are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to league results (22 and 20 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nissa (home) | 1.65 | 1.19 | 1.51 | 2.98 |
| Enna (away) | 1.04 | 0.63 | 0.85 | 0.56 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.65 × 1.19 × 1.51 ≈ 2.98
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 3.54 | 45% |
| Statistical xG feed | 2.82 | 25% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 3.45 | 30% |
| Blended total λ | 3.33 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 2.66, λaway = 0.67
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 79.6%
- Σ draw cells
- 13.4%
- Σ away-win cells
- 7.0%
- Most probable score
- 2–0 · 12.6%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Nissa | 85.0% | 60.0% | 77.1% | 75.9% |
| X Draw | 10.7% | 11.0% | 14.8% | 12.5% |
| 2 Enna | 4.2% | 29.0% | 8.1% | 11.6% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.118 → 11.8% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Nissa | 75.9% | 1.32 | 1.16 | 86.2% | -12.0% | |
| X · Draw | 12.5% | 8.00 | 6.05 | 16.5% | -24.4% | |
| 2 · Enna | 11.6% | 8.61 | 11.00 | 9.1% | +27.8% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 88.4% | 1.13 | – | – | – | |
| X2 | 24.1% | 4.15 | 3.90 | 25.6% | -5.9% | |
| 12 | 87.5% | 1.14 | 1.05 | 95.2% | -8.1% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Nissa | 86.7% | 1.15 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Enna | 13.3% | 7.53 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 84.5% | 1.18 | – | – | – | |
| Under 1.5 | 15.5% | 6.47 | – | – | – | |
| Over 2.5 pick | 65.9% | 1.52 | 1.35 | 74.1% | -11.1% | |
| Under 2.5 | 34.1% | 2.93 | 2.74 | 36.5% | -6.4% | |
| Over 3.5 | 45.3% | 2.21 | 1.92 | 52.1% | -13.1% | |
| Under 3.5 | 54.7% | 1.83 | 1.76 | 56.8% | -3.7% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes | 47.5% | 2.11 | 1.82 | 54.9% | -13.6% | |
| BTTS no | 52.5% | 1.90 | 1.82 | 54.9% | -4.4% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 58.9% | 1.70 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 31.8% | 3.14 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 9.3% | 10.74 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.659 × 1.35 − 1 = -0.111 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.000 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.0% of bankroll (no stake – the price has no edge)
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Nissa | Enna |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | LWLLDD | LDDLLL |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 1-2-3 | 0-2-4 |
| Points per match | 0.83 | 0.33 |
| Goals for / match | 1.33 | 0.67 |
| Goals against / match | 1.17 | 2.50 |
| Over 2.5 | 33% | 83% |
| BTTS | 67% | 33% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 0% |
| Failed to score | 33% | 67% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Nissa at 76%: ratings and home advantage combine into a clear edge. Standings: Nissa 13th on 12, Enna 18th on 3.
Form
Nissa, last six: L W L L D D – one win in total. Latest: 0–1 away at Siracusa. Per match: 1.3 scored, 1.2 conceded. No shut-outs in that run.
Sequence for Enna: L D D L L L, so zero victories in six. Latest: 0–3 at home to Reggina. The scoring rate has dropped to 0.7 per match. No shut-outs in that run.
Head to head
Last meeting (Apr 2026): Nissa 3–0 Enna. Old results carry little weight next to current ratings.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Nissa 2.66 · Enna 0.67 · total 3.33. High total: over 2.5 66%, BTTS 47%.
Model selection (graded)
Pre-match selection: Over 2.5 goals, probability 66%, odds 1.35 v fair 1.52. Most probable score: Nissa 3–0 Enna. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →- 19 Apr 2026Nissa3–0Enna
Serie D Girone I table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Reggina | 11 | +21 | 26 |
| 2 |  Sambiase | 11 | +11 | 26 |
| 3 |  Vibonese | 11 | +14 | 24 |
| 4 |  Calcio Avola | 11 | +1 | 19 |
| 5 |  Milazzo | 11 | +1 | 19 |
| 6 |  Digiesse PraiaTortora | 11 | +6 | 18 |
| 7 |  Igea Virtus | 11 | +3 | 18 |
| 8 |  Gela | 11 | +4 | 15 |
| 9 |  Siracusa | 11 | +8 | 14 |
| 10 |  AC Palermo | 11 | -1 | 14 |
| 11 |  Licata | 11 | -11 | 14 |
| 12 |  Modica | 11 | +1 | 13 |
| 13 |  Nissa | 11 | +1 | 12 |
| 14 |  Trapani 1905 | 11 | -5 | 9 |
| 15 |  CastrumFavara | 11 | -7 | 8 |
| 16 |  Vigor Lamezia | 11 | -10 | 8 |
| 17 |  Ragusa | 11 | -14 | 3 |
| 18 |  Enna | 11 | -23 | 3 |
More Serie D Girone I predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Nissa vs Enna?
The Model pick is Over 2.5 goals with a model probability of 66, priced around 1.35 by the bookmakers.
What are the Nissa v Enna probabilities?
Nissa win 76%, draw 13%, Enna win 12%.
What is the most probable score for Nissa vs Enna?
Nissa 3–0 Enna is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Nissa vs Enna?
Nissa 2.66, Enna 0.67 – over 2.5 at 66%, BTTS at 47%.
What time is Nissa vs Enna?
Sunday 15 November 2026, 14:30 WAT – Serie D Girone I.