- λ home
- 1.22
- λ away
- 1.20
- Σλ total
- 2.42
- P(over 2.5)
- 47%
- P(BTTS)
- 58%
- Modal score
- 1–1 13.0%
Vigor Lamezia vs Gela prediction & xG model: Both teams to score
In-play probabilities
The pre-match expected goals, scaled to the minutes left and added to the current score. Updates every 30 seconds.
Pre-match: Vigor Lamezia 37% · draw 27% · Gela 36%. The live model cannot see red cards or substitutions – read it as a guide.
Vigor Lamezia v Gela: what are you seeing?
- 45′
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How the numbers for Vigor Lamezia v Gela are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to league results (20 and 21 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vigor Lamezia (home) | 1.65 | 0.83 | 0.81 | 1.12 |
| Gela (away) | 1.04 | 0.89 | 1.19 | 1.10 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.65 × 0.83 × 0.81 ≈ 1.12
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 2.21 | 45% |
| Statistical xG feed | 2.45 | 25% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 2.70 | 30% |
| Blended total λ | 2.42 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.22, λaway = 1.20
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 36.6%
- Σ draw cells
- 27.5%
- Σ away-win cells
- 35.8%
- Most probable score
- 1–1 · 13.0%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Vigor Lamezia | 35.3% | 35.0% | 39.2% | 36.9% |
| X Draw | 30.6% | 18.0% | 28.2% | 26.7% |
| 2 Gela | 34.2% | 47.0% | 32.6% | 36.5% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.108 → 10.8% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Vigor Lamezia | 36.9% | 2.71 | 2.30 | 43.5% | -15.2% | |
| X · Draw | 26.7% | 3.75 | 3.20 | 31.3% | -14.7% | |
| 2 · Gela | 36.5% | 2.74 | 2.77 | 36.1% | +1.0% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 63.5% | 1.57 | 1.36 | 73.5% | -13.6% | |
| X2 | 63.1% | 1.58 | 1.50 | 66.7% | -5.3% | |
| 12 | 73.3% | 1.36 | 1.29 | 77.5% | -5.4% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Vigor Lamezia | 50.3% | 1.99 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Gela | 49.7% | 2.01 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 69.6% | 1.44 | – | – | – | |
| Under 1.5 | 30.4% | 3.28 | – | – | – | |
| Over 2.5 | 47.1% | 2.12 | 1.80 | 55.6% | -15.2% | |
| Under 2.5 | 52.9% | 1.89 | 1.85 | 54.1% | -2.1% | |
| Over 3.5 | 22.5% | 4.44 | – | – | – | |
| Under 3.5 | 77.5% | 1.29 | – | – | – | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes pick | 58.2% | 1.72 | 1.64 | 61.0% | -4.5% | |
| BTTS no | 41.8% | 2.39 | 2.04 | 49.0% | -14.8% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 27.7% | 3.60 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 45.0% | 2.22 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 27.3% | 3.67 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.582 × 1.64 − 1 = -0.045 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.000 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.0% of bankroll (no stake – the price has no edge)
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Vigor Lamezia | Gela |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | LLLWLD | WWWDDD |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 1-1-4 | 3-3-0 |
| Points per match | 0.67 | 2.00 |
| Goals for / match | 1.00 | 1.50 |
| Goals against / match | 1.67 | 0.50 |
| Over 2.5 | 67% | 33% |
| BTTS | 33% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 17% | 50% |
| Failed to score | 50% | 17% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Probabilities are almost level: 37 / 27 / 36% for home, draw, away. Standings: Vigor Lamezia 16th on 8, Gela 8th on 15.
Form
Sequence for Vigor Lamezia: L L L W L D, so one victory in six. Latest: 1–3 away at Milazzo. Per match: 1.0 scored, 1.7 conceded.
Gela have three wins from their last six (W W W D D D). Latest: 2–1 at home to Calcio Avola. Per match: 1.5 scored, 0.5 conceded. 3 shut-outs in that run.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Vigor Lamezia 1.22 · Gela 1.20 · total 2.42. Balanced goal lines: over 2.5 47%, BTTS 58%.
Model selection
Selection: Both teams to score, probability 58%, odds 1.64 v fair 1.72. Most probable score: Vigor Lamezia 2–1 Gela. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →No previous meeting in our data.
Serie D Girone I table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Reggina | 11 | +21 | 26 |
| 2 |  Sambiase | 11 | +11 | 26 |
| 3 |  Vibonese | 11 | +14 | 24 |
| 4 |  Calcio Avola | 11 | +1 | 19 |
| 5 |  Milazzo | 11 | +1 | 19 |
| 6 |  Digiesse PraiaTortora | 11 | +6 | 18 |
| 7 |  Igea Virtus | 11 | +3 | 18 |
| 8 |  Gela | 11 | +4 | 15 |
| 9 |  Siracusa | 11 | +8 | 14 |
| 10 |  AC Palermo | 11 | -1 | 14 |
| 11 |  Licata | 11 | -11 | 14 |
| 12 |  Modica | 11 | +1 | 13 |
| 13 |  Nissa | 11 | +1 | 12 |
| 14 |  Trapani 1905 | 11 | -5 | 9 |
| 15 |  CastrumFavara | 11 | -7 | 8 |
| 16 |  Vigor Lamezia | 11 | -10 | 8 |
| 17 |  Ragusa | 11 | -14 | 3 |
| 18 |  Enna | 11 | -23 | 3 |
More Serie D Girone I predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Vigor Lamezia vs Gela?
The Model pick is Both teams to score with a model probability of 58, priced around 1.64 by the bookmakers.
What are the Vigor Lamezia v Gela probabilities?
Vigor Lamezia win 37%, draw 27%, Gela win 36%.
What is the most probable score for Vigor Lamezia vs Gela?
Vigor Lamezia 2–1 Gela is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Vigor Lamezia vs Gela?
Vigor Lamezia 1.22, Gela 1.20 – over 2.5 at 47%, BTTS at 58%.
What time is Vigor Lamezia vs Gela?
Sunday 15 November 2026, 14:30 WAT – Serie D Girone I.