- λ home
- 1.32
- λ away
- 0.89
- Σλ total
- 2.21
- P(over 2.5)
- 42%
- P(BTTS)
- 45%
- Modal score
- 1–0 14.4%
Luparense vs Bassano Virtus prediction & xG model: Under 2.5 goals
In-play probabilities
The pre-match expected goals, scaled to the minutes left and added to the current score. Updates every 30 seconds.
Pre-match: Luparense 52% · draw 17% · Bassano Virtus 31%. The live model cannot see red cards or substitutions – read it as a guide.
Luparense v Bassano Virtus: who are you backing?
- Votes
- 0
- Takes
- 0
- Back / fade
- 0 / 0
Your call Counts on the weekly table · change it until kick-off
Takes
- No takes yet. Say what you think – the first take sits at the top.
Takes are opinions from Winning Arena visitors, not our tips. Be respectful: no insults, links, phone numbers or tip-selling. Report anything that breaks the rules and it is hidden for review.
How the numbers for Luparense v Bassano Virtus are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Not enough history for team ratings – the goal estimate uses the statistical feed and the market line only.
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Statistical xG feed | 1.82 | 45% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 2.54 | 55% |
| Blended total λ | 2.21 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.32, λaway = 0.89
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 46.4%
- Σ draw cells
- 28.2%
- Σ away-win cells
- 25.4%
- Most probable score
- 1–0 · 14.4%
Blending with the market
With no ratings for these teams, the statistical feed is blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Luparense | – | 49.0% | 55.8% | 51.8% |
| X Draw | – | 11.0% | 26.2% | 17.4% |
| 2 Bassano Virtus | – | 40.0% | 18.1% | 30.8% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.107 → 10.7% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Luparense | 51.8% | 1.93 | 1.62 | 61.7% | -16.0% | |
| X · Draw | 17.4% | 5.76 | 3.45 | 29.0% | -40.1% | |
| 2 · Bassano Virtus | 30.8% | 3.25 | 5.00 | 20.0% | +53.9% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 69.2% | 1.44 | 1.15 | 87.0% | -20.4% | |
| X2 | 48.2% | 2.08 | 2.05 | 48.8% | -1.3% | |
| 12 | 82.6% | 1.21 | 1.25 | 80.0% | +3.3% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Luparense | 62.7% | 1.59 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Bassano Virtus | 37.3% | 2.68 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 64.8% | 1.54 | – | – | – | |
| Under 1.5 | 35.2% | 2.84 | – | – | – | |
| Over 2.5 | 42.3% | 2.36 | 1.95 | 51.3% | -17.5% | |
| Under 2.5 pick | 57.7% | 1.73 | 1.70 | 58.8% | -1.9% | |
| Over 3.5 | 18.3% | 5.47 | – | – | – | |
| Under 3.5 | 81.7% | 1.22 | – | – | – | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes | 44.6% | 2.24 | 2.09 | 47.8% | -6.9% | |
| BTTS no | 55.4% | 1.80 | 1.74 | 57.5% | -3.5% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 32.8% | 3.05 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 46.9% | 2.13 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 20.2% | 4.94 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.577 × 1.70 − 1 = -0.019 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.000 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.0% of bankroll (no stake – the price has no edge)
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Luparense | Bassano Virtus |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | DDDDWW | DDLLWW |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 2-4-0 | 2-2-2 |
| Points per match | 1.67 | 1.33 |
| Goals for / match | 1.00 | 0.83 |
| Goals against / match | 0.50 | 1.00 |
| Over 2.5 | 33% | 33% |
| BTTS | 33% | 33% |
| Clean sheets | 67% | 50% |
| Failed to score | 50% | 33% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Luparense ahead at 52%, against 31% for Bassano Virtus and 17% for the draw. Standings: Luparense 2nd on 21, Bassano Virtus 10th on 14.
Form
Luparense, last six: D D D D W W – two wins in total. Latest: 0–0 away at Campodarsego. Per match: 1.0 scored, 0.5 conceded. 4 shut-outs in that run.
Sequence for Bassano Virtus: D D L L W W, so two victories in six. Latest: 1–1 at home to Calvi Noale. The scoring rate has dropped to 0.8 per match. 3 shut-outs in that run.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Luparense 1.32 · Bassano Virtus 0.89 · total 2.21. Balanced goal lines: over 2.5 42%, BTTS 45%.
Model selection
Model selection: Under 2.5 goals, probability 58%, odds 1.70 v fair 1.73. Most probable score: Luparense 1–0 Bassano Virtus. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →No previous meeting in our data.
Serie D Girone C table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Cjarlins Muzane | 11 | +12 | 25 |
| 2 |  Luparense | 11 | +12 | 21 |
| 3 |  Sandona | 11 | +5 | 19 |
| 4 |  Clodiense | 11 | +3 | 19 |
| 5 |  Campodarsego | 11 | +3 | 18 |
| 6 |  Mestre | 11 | +4 | 17 |
| 7 |  Legnago Salus | 11 | +3 | 16 |
| 8 |  Este | 11 | +1 | 16 |
| 9 |  Conegliano | 11 | -3 | 15 |
| 10 |  Bassano Virtus | 11 | 0 | 14 |
| 11 |  FC Obermais | 11 | -2 | 13 |
| 12 |  Triestina | 11 | -3 | 13 |
| 13 |  LME | 11 | -4 | 13 |
| 14 |  Altavilla | 11 | +5 | 11 |
| 15 |  Virtus Bolzano | 11 | -16 | 11 |
| 16 |  Calvi Noale | 11 | -4 | 10 |
| 17 |  Schio | 11 | -5 | 8 |
| 18 |  Brian Lignano | 11 | -11 | 5 |
More Serie D Girone C predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Luparense vs Bassano Virtus?
The Model pick is Under 2.5 goals with a model probability of 58, priced around 1.70 by the bookmakers.
What are the Luparense v Bassano Virtus probabilities?
Luparense win 52%, draw 17%, Bassano Virtus win 31%.
What is the most probable score for Luparense vs Bassano Virtus?
Luparense 1–0 Bassano Virtus is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Luparense vs Bassano Virtus?
Luparense 1.32, Bassano Virtus 0.89 – over 2.5 at 42%, BTTS at 45%.
What time is Luparense vs Bassano Virtus?
Sunday 15 November 2026, 14:30 WAT – Serie D Girone C.