- λ home
- 1.10
- λ away
- 1.12
- Σλ total
- 2.21
- P(over 2.5)
- 41%
- P(BTTS)
- 48%
- Modal score
- 1–1 13.4%
Este vs Mestre prediction & xG model: Under 2.5 goals
In-play probabilities
The pre-match expected goals, scaled to the minutes left and added to the current score. Updates every 30 seconds.
Pre-match: Este 38% · draw 23% · Mestre 39%. The live model cannot see red cards or substitutions – read it as a guide.
Este v Mestre: who are you backing?
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How the numbers for Este v Mestre are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Not enough history for team ratings – the goal estimate uses the statistical feed and the market line only.
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Statistical xG feed | 1.95 | 45% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 2.43 | 55% |
| Blended total λ | 2.21 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.10, λaway = 1.12
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 35.0%
- Σ draw cells
- 29.0%
- Σ away-win cells
- 36.0%
- Most probable score
- 1–1 · 13.4%
Blending with the market
With no ratings for these teams, the statistical feed is blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Este | – | 39.0% | 36.5% | 38.0% |
| X Draw | – | 18.0% | 30.1% | 23.1% |
| 2 Mestre | – | 43.0% | 33.4% | 39.0% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.109 → 10.9% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Este | 38.0% | 2.63 | 2.47 | 40.5% | -6.2% | |
| X · Draw | 23.1% | 4.33 | 3.00 | 33.3% | -30.8% | |
| 2 · Mestre | 39.0% | 2.57 | 2.70 | 37.0% | +5.2% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 61.0% | 1.64 | 1.38 | 72.5% | -15.8% | |
| X2 | 62.0% | 1.61 | 1.44 | 69.4% | -10.7% | |
| 12 | 76.9% | 1.30 | 1.32 | 75.8% | +1.5% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Este | 49.3% | 2.03 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Mestre | 50.7% | 1.97 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 64.9% | 1.54 | – | – | – | |
| Under 1.5 | 35.1% | 2.85 | – | – | – | |
| Over 2.5 | 41.0% | 2.44 | 2.07 | 48.3% | -15.1% | |
| Under 2.5 pick | 59.0% | 1.69 | 1.62 | 61.7% | -4.4% | |
| Over 3.5 | 18.3% | 5.45 | – | – | – | |
| Under 3.5 | 81.7% | 1.22 | – | – | – | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes | 48.2% | 2.07 | 1.87 | 53.5% | -9.9% | |
| BTTS no | 51.8% | 1.93 | 1.93 | 51.8% | 0.0% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 26.1% | 3.84 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 47.3% | 2.12 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 26.7% | 3.75 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.590 × 1.62 − 1 = -0.044 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.000 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.0% of bankroll (no stake – the price has no edge)
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Este | Mestre |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | WLWWLL | DWWLLL |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 3-0-3 | 2-1-3 |
| Points per match | 1.50 | 1.17 |
| Goals for / match | 0.67 | 1.00 |
| Goals against / match | 0.83 | 1.17 |
| Over 2.5 | 17% | 17% |
| BTTS | 17% | 33% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 33% |
| Failed to score | 50% | 33% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Probabilities are almost level: 38 / 23 / 39% for home, draw, away. Standings: Este 8th on 16, Mestre 6th on 17.
Form
Sequence for Este: W L W W L L, so three victories in six. Latest: 2–1 away at Altavilla. The scoring rate has dropped to 0.7 per match.
Sequence for Mestre: D W W L L L, so two victories in six. Latest: 1–1 at home to Legnago Salus. Per match: 1.0 scored, 1.2 conceded.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Este 1.10 · Mestre 1.12 · total 2.21. Balanced goal lines: over 2.5 41%, BTTS 48%.
Model selection
Selection: Under 2.5 goals, probability 59%, odds 1.62 v fair 1.69. Most probable score: Este 0–1 Mestre. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →No previous meeting in our data.
Serie D Girone C table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Cjarlins Muzane | 11 | +12 | 25 |
| 2 |  Luparense | 11 | +12 | 21 |
| 3 |  Sandona | 11 | +5 | 19 |
| 4 |  Clodiense | 11 | +3 | 19 |
| 5 |  Campodarsego | 11 | +3 | 18 |
| 6 |  Mestre | 11 | +4 | 17 |
| 7 |  Legnago Salus | 11 | +3 | 16 |
| 8 |  Este | 11 | +1 | 16 |
| 9 |  Conegliano | 11 | -3 | 15 |
| 10 |  Bassano Virtus | 11 | 0 | 14 |
| 11 |  FC Obermais | 11 | -2 | 13 |
| 12 |  Triestina | 11 | -3 | 13 |
| 13 |  LME | 11 | -4 | 13 |
| 14 |  Altavilla | 11 | +5 | 11 |
| 15 |  Virtus Bolzano | 11 | -16 | 11 |
| 16 |  Calvi Noale | 11 | -4 | 10 |
| 17 |  Schio | 11 | -5 | 8 |
| 18 |  Brian Lignano | 11 | -11 | 5 |
More Serie D Girone C predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Este vs Mestre?
The Model pick is Under 2.5 goals with a model probability of 59, priced around 1.62 by the bookmakers.
What are the Este v Mestre probabilities?
Este win 38%, draw 23%, Mestre win 39%.
What is the most probable score for Este vs Mestre?
Este 0–1 Mestre is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Este vs Mestre?
Este 1.10, Mestre 1.12 – over 2.5 at 41%, BTTS at 48%.
What time is Este vs Mestre?
Sunday 15 November 2026, 14:30 WAT – Serie D Girone C.