- λ home
- 2.04
- λ away
- 0.81
- Σλ total
- 2.85
- P(over 2.5)
- 51%
- P(BTTS)
- 49%
- Modal score
- 2–0 12.0%
Cjarlins Muzane vs Triestina prediction & xG model: Over 1.5 goals
Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick landed ✓
Cjarlins Muzane v Triestina: how the Arena called it
- Full time
- 3–0
- Votes
- 0
- Takes
- 0
- Back / fade
- 0 / 0
- Arena tipOver 1.5 goals✓
- VotersNobody called this one–
Your call Voting closed at kick-off
This debate is closed. The takes below stay up as a record of what the Arena said.
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How the numbers for Cjarlins Muzane v Triestina are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Not enough history for team ratings – the goal estimate uses the statistical feed and the market line only.
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Statistical xG feed | 3.13 | 45% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 2.62 | 55% |
| Blended total λ | 2.85 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 2.04, λaway = 0.81
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 66.0%
- Σ draw cells
- 20.1%
- Σ away-win cells
- 13.9%
- Most probable score
- 2–0 · 12.0%
Blending with the market
With no ratings for these teams, the statistical feed is blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Cjarlins Muzane | – | 70.0% | 54.3% | 63.4% |
| X Draw | – | 25.0% | 25.5% | 25.2% |
| 2 Triestina | – | 5.0% | 20.2% | 11.4% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.090 → 9.0% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Cjarlins Muzane | 63.4% | 1.58 | 1.69 | 59.2% | +7.2% | |
| X · Draw | 25.2% | 3.97 | 3.60 | 27.8% | -9.3% | |
| 2 · Triestina | 11.4% | 8.78 | 4.54 | 22.0% | -48.3% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 88.6% | 1.13 | – | – | – | |
| X2 | 36.6% | 2.73 | – | – | – | |
| 12 | 74.8% | 1.34 | – | – | – | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Cjarlins Muzane | 84.8% | 1.18 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Triestina | 15.2% | 6.57 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 pick | 74.8% | 1.34 | 1.28 | 78.1% | -4.3% | |
| Under 1.5 | 25.2% | 3.96 | 3.25 | 30.8% | -17.9% | |
| Over 2.5 | 51.5% | 1.94 | 1.90 | 52.6% | -2.2% | |
| Under 2.5 | 48.5% | 2.06 | 1.80 | 55.6% | -12.6% | |
| Over 3.5 | 30.5% | 3.28 | 3.15 | 31.7% | -3.9% | |
| Under 3.5 | 69.5% | 1.44 | 1.29 | 77.5% | -10.4% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes | 49.0% | 2.04 | 1.96 | 51.0% | -4.0% | |
| BTTS no | 51.0% | 1.96 | 1.85 | 54.1% | -5.6% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 47.4% | 2.11 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 38.4% | 2.60 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 14.2% | 7.05 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.748 × 1.28 − 1 = -0.043 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.000 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.0% of bankroll (no stake – the price has no edge)
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Cjarlins Muzane | Triestina |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | WLWWLW | DLDLLD |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 4-0-2 | 0-3-3 |
| Points per match | 2.00 | 0.50 |
| Goals for / match | 2.67 | 0.67 |
| Goals against / match | 1.83 | 1.50 |
| Over 2.5 | 83% | 33% |
| BTTS | 83% | 67% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 0% |
| Failed to score | 17% | 33% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Strong home favourites – Cjarlins Muzane 63% to win. Standings: Cjarlins Muzane 1st on 25, Triestina 12th on 13.
Form
Cjarlins Muzane, last six: W L W W L W – four wins in total. Latest: 2–1 away at Este. Scoring rate: 2.7 per match – well above average. No shut-outs in that run.
Triestina, last six: D L D L L D – zero wins in total. Latest: 1–1 at home to Bassano Virtus. Only 0.7 goals a match in that spell. No shut-outs in that run.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Cjarlins Muzane 2.04 · Triestina 0.81 · total 2.85. Balanced goal lines: over 2.5 51%, BTTS 49%.
Model selection (graded)
Pre-match selection: Over 1.5 goals, probability 75%, odds 1.28 v fair 1.34. Most probable score: Cjarlins Muzane 2–0 Triestina. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →No previous meeting in our data.
Serie D Girone C table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Cjarlins Muzane | 11 | +12 | 25 |
| 2 |  Luparense | 11 | +12 | 21 |
| 3 |  Sandona | 11 | +5 | 19 |
| 4 |  Clodiense | 11 | +3 | 19 |
| 5 |  Campodarsego | 11 | +3 | 18 |
| 6 |  Mestre | 11 | +4 | 17 |
| 7 |  Legnago Salus | 11 | +3 | 16 |
| 8 |  Este | 11 | +1 | 16 |
| 9 |  Conegliano | 11 | -3 | 15 |
| 10 |  Bassano Virtus | 11 | 0 | 14 |
| 11 |  FC Obermais | 11 | -2 | 13 |
| 12 |  Triestina | 11 | -3 | 13 |
| 13 |  LME | 11 | -4 | 13 |
| 14 |  Altavilla | 11 | +5 | 11 |
| 15 |  Virtus Bolzano | 11 | -16 | 11 |
| 16 |  Calvi Noale | 11 | -4 | 10 |
| 17 |  Schio | 11 | -5 | 8 |
| 18 |  Brian Lignano | 11 | -11 | 5 |
More Serie D Girone C predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Cjarlins Muzane vs Triestina?
The Model pick is Over 1.5 goals with a model probability of 75, priced around 1.28 by the bookmakers.
What are the Cjarlins Muzane v Triestina probabilities?
Cjarlins Muzane win 63%, draw 25%, Triestina win 11%.
What is the most probable score for Cjarlins Muzane vs Triestina?
Cjarlins Muzane 2–0 Triestina is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Cjarlins Muzane vs Triestina?
Cjarlins Muzane 2.04, Triestina 0.81 – over 2.5 at 51%, BTTS at 49%.
What time is Cjarlins Muzane vs Triestina?
Sunday 27 September 2026, 14:00 WAT – Serie D Girone C.