- λ home
- 0.83
- λ away
- 1.99
- Σλ total
- 2.82
- P(over 2.5)
- 51%
- P(BTTS)
- 54%
- Modal score
- 0–1 11.9%
Rovato Vertovese vs Piacenza prediction & xG model: Over 1.5 goals
In-play probabilities
The pre-match expected goals, scaled to the minutes left and added to the current score. Updates every 30 seconds.
Pre-match: Rovato Vertovese 15% · draw 20% · Piacenza 65%. The live model cannot see red cards or substitutions – read it as a guide.
Rovato Vertovese v Piacenza: who are you backing?
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How the numbers for Rovato Vertovese v Piacenza are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Not enough history for team ratings – the goal estimate uses the statistical feed and the market line only.
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Statistical xG feed | 3.05 | 45% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 2.62 | 55% |
| Blended total λ | 2.82 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 0.83, λaway = 1.99
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 14.9%
- Σ draw cells
- 20.7%
- Σ away-win cells
- 64.4%
- Most probable score
- 0–1 · 11.9%
Blending with the market
With no ratings for these teams, the statistical feed is blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Rovato Vertovese | – | 10.0% | 22.3% | 15.2% |
| X Draw | – | 16.0% | 25.9% | 20.2% |
| 2 Piacenza | – | 74.0% | 51.8% | 64.7% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.122 → 12.2% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Rovato Vertovese | 15.2% | 6.60 | 4.00 | 25.0% | -39.4% | |
| X · Draw | 20.2% | 4.96 | 3.44 | 29.1% | -30.6% | |
| 2 · Piacenza | 64.7% | 1.55 | 1.72 | 58.1% | +11.3% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 35.3% | 2.83 | 1.86 | 53.8% | -34.3% | |
| X2 | 84.8% | 1.18 | 1.15 | 87.0% | -2.4% | |
| 12 | 79.8% | 1.25 | 1.21 | 82.6% | -3.4% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Rovato Vertovese | 19.0% | 5.27 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Piacenza | 81.0% | 1.23 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 pick | 74.5% | 1.34 | 1.26 | 79.4% | -6.2% | |
| Under 1.5 | 25.5% | 3.92 | 3.20 | 31.3% | -18.3% | |
| Over 2.5 | 51.1% | 1.96 | 1.88 | 53.2% | -3.9% | |
| Under 2.5 | 48.9% | 2.05 | 1.79 | 55.9% | -12.5% | |
| Over 3.5 | 30.0% | 3.33 | 3.14 | 31.8% | -5.8% | |
| Under 3.5 | 70.0% | 1.43 | 1.27 | 78.7% | -11.1% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes | 53.5% | 1.87 | 1.79 | 55.9% | -4.2% | |
| BTTS no | 46.5% | 2.15 | 1.85 | 54.1% | -14.0% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 14.8% | 6.75 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 39.0% | 2.57 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 46.2% | 2.16 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.745 × 1.26 − 1 = -0.062 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.000 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.0% of bankroll (no stake – the price has no edge)
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Rovato Vertovese | Piacenza |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | LWLDWL | WLWWDW |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 2-1-3 | 4-1-1 |
| Points per match | 1.17 | 2.17 |
| Goals for / match | 1.50 | 2.00 |
| Goals against / match | 1.50 | 1.00 |
| Over 2.5 | 67% | 50% |
| BTTS | 83% | 67% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 33% |
| Failed to score | 17% | 0% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Away favourites: Piacenza 65%, Rovato Vertovese 15%. Standings: Rovato Vertovese 14th on 10, Piacenza 4th on 21.
Form
Rovato Vertovese have two wins from their last six (L W L D W L). Latest: 2–3 away at Pro Palazzolo. Per match: 1.5 scored, 1.5 conceded. No shut-outs in that run.
Piacenza, last six: W L W W D W – four wins in total. Latest: 2–0 away at Brusaporto. Scoring rate: 2.0 per match – well above average.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Rovato Vertovese 0.83 · Piacenza 1.99 · total 2.82. Balanced goal lines: over 2.5 51%, BTTS 54%.
Model selection
Model selection: Over 1.5 goals, probability 74%, odds 1.26 v fair 1.34. Most probable score: Rovato Vertovese 0–2 Piacenza. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →No previous meeting in our data.
Serie D Girone B table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Chievo | 11 | +16 | 25 |
| 2 |  Nibbiano & Valtidone | 11 | +9 | 25 |
| 3 |  Milan II | 11 | +6 | 23 |
| 4 |  Piacenza | 11 | +10 | 21 |
| 5 |  Leon | 11 | +6 | 21 |
| 6 |  Caldiero Terme | 11 | +3 | 18 |
| 7 |  Villa Valle | 11 | +5 | 17 |
| 8 |  Pavonese | 11 | -1 | 16 |
| 9 |  Scanzorosciate | 11 | 0 | 14 |
| 10 |  Pro Palazzolo | 11 | -5 | 14 |
| 11 |  Real Calepina | 11 | -4 | 13 |
| 12 |  Virtus Verona | 11 | -5 | 12 |
| 13 |  Club Milano | 11 | -4 | 11 |
| 14 |  Rovato Vertovese | 11 | -3 | 10 |
| 15 |  Virtus Ciserano Bergamo | 11 | -5 | 10 |
| 16 |  Brusaporto | 11 | -10 | 9 |
| 17 |  Fiorenzuola | 11 | -8 | 6 |
| 18 |  Tritium | 11 | -10 | 6 |
More Serie D Girone B predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Rovato Vertovese vs Piacenza?
The Model pick is Over 1.5 goals with a model probability of 74, priced around 1.26 by the bookmakers.
What are the Rovato Vertovese v Piacenza probabilities?
Rovato Vertovese win 15%, draw 20%, Piacenza win 65%.
What is the most probable score for Rovato Vertovese vs Piacenza?
Rovato Vertovese 0–2 Piacenza is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Rovato Vertovese vs Piacenza?
Rovato Vertovese 0.83, Piacenza 1.99 – over 2.5 at 51%, BTTS at 54%.
What time is Rovato Vertovese vs Piacenza?
Sunday 15 November 2026, 14:30 WAT – Serie D Girone B.