- λ home
- 1.07
- λ away
- 1.35
- Σλ total
- 2.42
- P(over 2.5)
- 44%
- P(BTTS)
- 48%
- Modal score
- 1–1 12.8%
Virtus Ciserano Bergamo vs Scanzorosciate prediction & xG model: Not both teams to score
In-play probabilities
The pre-match expected goals, scaled to the minutes left and added to the current score. Updates every 30 seconds.
Pre-match: Virtus Ciserano Bergamo 34% · draw 19% · Scanzorosciate 47%. The live model cannot see red cards or substitutions – read it as a guide.
Virtus Ciserano Bergamo v Scanzorosciate: who are you backing?
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How the numbers for Virtus Ciserano Bergamo v Scanzorosciate are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Not enough history for team ratings – the goal estimate uses the statistical feed and the market line only.
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Statistical xG feed | 2.41 | 45% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 2.43 | 55% |
| Blended total λ | 2.42 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.07, λaway = 1.35
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 29.6%
- Σ draw cells
- 27.2%
- Σ away-win cells
- 43.2%
- Most probable score
- 1–1 · 12.8%
Blending with the market
With no ratings for these teams, the statistical feed is blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Virtus Ciserano Bergamo | – | 33.0% | 34.6% | 33.7% |
| X Draw | – | 11.0% | 30.0% | 19.0% |
| 2 Scanzorosciate | – | 56.0% | 35.3% | 47.3% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.110 → 11.0% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Virtus Ciserano Bergamo | 33.7% | 2.97 | 2.60 | 38.5% | -12.4% | |
| X · Draw | 19.0% | 5.27 | 3.00 | 33.3% | -43.0% | |
| 2 · Scanzorosciate | 47.3% | 2.11 | 2.55 | 39.2% | +20.7% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 52.7% | 1.90 | 1.42 | 70.4% | -25.2% | |
| X2 | 66.3% | 1.51 | 1.40 | 71.4% | -7.2% | |
| 12 | 81.0% | 1.23 | 1.32 | 75.8% | +6.9% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Virtus Ciserano Bergamo | 41.6% | 2.40 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Scanzorosciate | 58.4% | 1.71 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 69.6% | 1.44 | – | – | – | |
| Under 1.5 | 30.4% | 3.29 | – | – | – | |
| Over 2.5 | 43.8% | 2.29 | 2.07 | 48.3% | -9.4% | |
| Under 2.5 | 56.2% | 1.78 | 1.62 | 61.7% | -8.9% | |
| Over 3.5 | 22.6% | 4.42 | – | – | – | |
| Under 3.5 | 77.4% | 1.29 | – | – | – | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes | 47.6% | 2.10 | 1.86 | 53.8% | -11.5% | |
| BTTS no pick | 52.4% | 1.91 | 1.94 | 51.5% | +1.7% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 23.5% | 4.26 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 44.8% | 2.23 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 31.7% | 3.15 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.524 × 1.94 − 1 = +0.017 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.018 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.4% of bankroll
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Virtus Ciserano Bergamo | Scanzorosciate |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | LDLLLW | DWDDWL |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 1-1-4 | 2-3-1 |
| Points per match | 0.67 | 1.50 |
| Goals for / match | 1.00 | 1.33 |
| Goals against / match | 2.00 | 1.50 |
| Over 2.5 | 67% | 50% |
| BTTS | 50% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 17% | 33% |
| Failed to score | 33% | 33% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Marginal away preference, 47% against 34%. Standings: Virtus Ciserano Bergamo 15th on 10, Scanzorosciate 9th on 14.
Form
Virtus Ciserano Bergamo have one win from their last six (L D L L L W). Latest: 0–3 away at Milan II. Per match: 1.0 scored, 2.0 conceded.
Scanzorosciate, last six: D W D D W L – two wins in total. Latest: 3–3 at home to Pavonese. Per match: 1.3 scored, 1.5 conceded.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Virtus Ciserano Bergamo 1.07 · Scanzorosciate 1.35 · total 2.42. Balanced goal lines: over 2.5 44%, BTTS 48%.
Model selection
Highest-rated market: Not both teams to score, probability 52%, odds 1.94 v fair 1.91. Most probable score: Virtus Ciserano Bergamo 0–1 Scanzorosciate. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →No previous meeting in our data.
Serie D Girone B table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Chievo | 11 | +16 | 25 |
| 2 |  Nibbiano & Valtidone | 11 | +9 | 25 |
| 3 |  Milan II | 11 | +6 | 23 |
| 4 |  Piacenza | 11 | +10 | 21 |
| 5 |  Leon | 11 | +6 | 21 |
| 6 |  Caldiero Terme | 11 | +3 | 18 |
| 7 |  Villa Valle | 11 | +5 | 17 |
| 8 |  Pavonese | 11 | -1 | 16 |
| 9 |  Scanzorosciate | 11 | 0 | 14 |
| 10 |  Pro Palazzolo | 11 | -5 | 14 |
| 11 |  Real Calepina | 11 | -4 | 13 |
| 12 |  Virtus Verona | 11 | -5 | 12 |
| 13 |  Club Milano | 11 | -4 | 11 |
| 14 |  Rovato Vertovese | 11 | -3 | 10 |
| 15 |  Virtus Ciserano Bergamo | 11 | -5 | 10 |
| 16 |  Brusaporto | 11 | -10 | 9 |
| 17 |  Fiorenzuola | 11 | -8 | 6 |
| 18 |  Tritium | 11 | -10 | 6 |
More Serie D Girone B predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Virtus Ciserano Bergamo vs Scanzorosciate?
The Model pick is Not both teams to score with a model probability of 52, priced around 1.94 by the bookmakers.
What are the Virtus Ciserano Bergamo v Scanzorosciate probabilities?
Virtus Ciserano Bergamo win 34%, draw 19%, Scanzorosciate win 47%.
What is the most probable score for Virtus Ciserano Bergamo vs Scanzorosciate?
Virtus Ciserano Bergamo 0–1 Scanzorosciate is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Virtus Ciserano Bergamo vs Scanzorosciate?
Virtus Ciserano Bergamo 1.07, Scanzorosciate 1.35 – over 2.5 at 44%, BTTS at 48%.
What time is Virtus Ciserano Bergamo vs Scanzorosciate?
Sunday 15 November 2026, 14:30 WAT – Serie D Girone B.