- λ home
- 1.31
- λ away
- 1.30
- Σλ total
- 2.61
- P(over 2.5)
- 50%
- P(BTTS)
- 61%
- Modal score
- 1–1 12.5%
Virtus Verona vs Milan II prediction & xG model: Both teams to score
Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick landed ✓
Virtus Verona v Milan II: how the Arena called it
- Full time
- 2–3
- Votes
- 0
- Takes
- 0
- Back / fade
- 0 / 0
- Arena tipBoth teams to score✓
- VotersNobody called this one–
Your call Voting closed at kick-off
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How the numbers for Virtus Verona v Milan II are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to league results (11 and 20 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Virtus Verona (home) | 1.51 | 0.84 | 0.94 | 1.19 |
| Milan II (away) | 1.16 | 1.36 | 1.05 | 1.66 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.51 × 0.84 × 0.94 ≈ 1.19
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 2.85 | 45% |
| Statistical xG feed | 2.47 | 25% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 2.73 | 30% |
| Blended total λ | 2.61 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.31, λaway = 1.30
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 36.9%
- Σ draw cells
- 26.3%
- Σ away-win cells
- 36.7%
- Most probable score
- 1–1 · 12.5%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Virtus Verona | 27.1% | 38.0% | 40.0% | 38.8% |
| X Draw | 25.4% | 18.0% | 28.7% | 22.5% |
| 2 Milan II | 47.5% | 44.0% | 31.3% | 38.7% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.087 → 8.7% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Virtus Verona | 38.8% | 2.58 | 2.30 | 43.5% | -10.7% | |
| X · Draw | 22.5% | 4.44 | 3.20 | 31.3% | -28.0% | |
| 2 · Milan II | 38.7% | 2.59 | 2.94 | 34.0% | +13.7% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 61.3% | 1.63 | – | – | – | |
| X2 | 61.2% | 1.63 | – | – | – | |
| 12 | 77.5% | 1.29 | – | – | – | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Virtus Verona | 50.1% | 2.00 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Milan II | 49.9% | 2.00 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 73.7% | 1.36 | 1.24 | 80.6% | -8.7% | |
| Under 1.5 | 26.3% | 3.80 | 3.50 | 28.6% | -7.8% | |
| Over 2.5 | 49.9% | 2.00 | 1.80 | 55.6% | -10.2% | |
| Under 2.5 | 50.1% | 2.00 | 1.90 | 52.6% | -4.8% | |
| Over 3.5 | 29.4% | 3.40 | 2.82 | 35.5% | -17.0% | |
| Under 3.5 | 70.6% | 1.42 | 1.34 | 74.6% | -5.4% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes pick | 61.0% | 1.64 | 1.70 | 58.8% | +3.6% | |
| BTTS no | 39.0% | 2.56 | 2.14 | 46.7% | -16.5% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 28.5% | 3.51 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 43.1% | 2.32 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 28.4% | 3.52 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.610 × 1.70 − 1 = +0.036 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.052 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 1.3% of bankroll
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Virtus Verona | Milan II |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | LWDLLW | DDWLWW |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 2-1-3 | 3-2-1 |
| Points per match | 1.17 | 1.83 |
| Goals for / match | 0.67 | 1.50 |
| Goals against / match | 1.00 | 1.17 |
| Over 2.5 | 17% | 67% |
| BTTS | 17% | 100% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 0% |
| Failed to score | 50% | 0% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Probabilities are almost level: 39 / 23 / 39% for home, draw, away. Standings: Virtus Verona 12th on 12, Milan II 3rd on 23.
Form
Virtus Verona have two wins from their last six (L W D L L W). Latest: 0–1 away at Nibbiano & Valtidone. Only 0.7 goals a match in that spell.
Milan II, last six: D D W L W W – three wins in total. Latest: 1–1 away at Pavonese. Per match: 1.5 scored, 1.2 conceded. No shut-outs in that run.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Virtus Verona 1.31 · Milan II 1.30 · total 2.61. Balanced goal lines: over 2.5 50%, BTTS 61%.
Model selection (graded)
Pre-match selection: Both teams to score, probability 61%, odds 1.70 v fair 1.64. Most probable score: Virtus Verona 2–1 Milan II. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →No previous meeting in our data.
Serie D Girone B table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Chievo | 11 | +16 | 25 |
| 2 |  Nibbiano & Valtidone | 11 | +9 | 25 |
| 3 |  Milan II | 11 | +6 | 23 |
| 4 |  Piacenza | 11 | +10 | 21 |
| 5 |  Leon | 11 | +6 | 21 |
| 6 |  Caldiero Terme | 11 | +3 | 18 |
| 7 |  Villa Valle | 11 | +5 | 17 |
| 8 |  Pavonese | 11 | -1 | 16 |
| 9 |  Scanzorosciate | 11 | 0 | 14 |
| 10 |  Pro Palazzolo | 11 | -5 | 14 |
| 11 |  Real Calepina | 11 | -4 | 13 |
| 12 |  Virtus Verona | 11 | -5 | 12 |
| 13 |  Club Milano | 11 | -4 | 11 |
| 14 |  Rovato Vertovese | 11 | -3 | 10 |
| 15 |  Virtus Ciserano Bergamo | 11 | -5 | 10 |
| 16 |  Brusaporto | 11 | -10 | 9 |
| 17 |  Fiorenzuola | 11 | -8 | 6 |
| 18 |  Tritium | 11 | -10 | 6 |
More Serie D Girone B predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Virtus Verona vs Milan II?
The Model pick is Both teams to score with a model probability of 61, priced around 1.70 by the bookmakers.
What are the Virtus Verona v Milan II probabilities?
Virtus Verona win 39%, draw 23%, Milan II win 39%.
What is the most probable score for Virtus Verona vs Milan II?
Virtus Verona 2–1 Milan II is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Virtus Verona vs Milan II?
Virtus Verona 1.31, Milan II 1.30 – over 2.5 at 50%, BTTS at 61%.
What time is Virtus Verona vs Milan II?
Sunday 1 November 2026, 14:30 WAT, at Mario Gavagnin-Sinibaldo Nocini – Serie D Girone B.