- λ home
- 1.33
- λ away
- 0.86
- Σλ total
- 2.18
- P(over 2.5)
- 40%
- P(BTTS)
- 46%
- Modal score
- 1–0 14.9%
Villa Valle vs Brusaporto prediction & xG model: Villa Valle to win
Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick landed ✓
Villa Valle v Brusaporto: how the Arena called it
- Full time
- 5–2
- Votes
- 0
- Takes
- 0
- Back / fade
- 0 / 0
- Arena tipVilla Valle to win✓
- VotersNobody called this one–
Your call Voting closed at kick-off
This debate is closed. The takes below stay up as a record of what the Arena said.
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How the numbers for Villa Valle v Brusaporto are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to league results (20 and 21 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Villa Valle (home) | 1.51 | 0.96 | 1.12 | 1.62 |
| Brusaporto (away) | 1.16 | 0.79 | 0.83 | 0.76 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.51 × 0.96 × 1.12 ≈ 1.62
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 2.38 | 45% |
| Statistical xG feed | 1.94 | 25% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 2.39 | 30% |
| Blended total λ | 2.18 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.33, λaway = 0.86
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 47.6%
- Σ draw cells
- 28.2%
- Σ away-win cells
- 24.2%
- Most probable score
- 1–0 · 14.9%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Villa Valle | 57.0% | 57.0% | 39.6% | 49.7% |
| X Draw | 26.0% | 19.0% | 31.0% | 24.0% |
| 2 Brusaporto | 17.0% | 24.0% | 29.5% | 26.3% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.094 → 9.4% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Villa Valle pick | 49.7% | 2.01 | 2.31 | 43.3% | +14.7% | |
| X · Draw | 24.0% | 4.16 | 2.95 | 33.9% | -29.1% | |
| 2 · Brusaporto | 26.3% | 3.80 | 3.10 | 32.3% | -18.5% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 73.7% | 1.36 | – | – | – | |
| X2 | 50.3% | 1.99 | – | – | – | |
| 12 | 76.0% | 1.32 | – | – | – | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Villa Valle | 65.4% | 1.53 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Brusaporto | 34.6% | 2.89 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 65.5% | 1.53 | 1.36 | 73.5% | -10.9% | |
| Under 1.5 | 34.5% | 2.90 | 2.74 | 36.5% | -5.4% | |
| Over 2.5 | 40.0% | 2.50 | 2.15 | 46.5% | -14.1% | |
| Under 2.5 | 60.0% | 1.67 | 1.60 | 62.5% | -4.0% | |
| Over 3.5 | 21.3% | 4.70 | 3.70 | 27.0% | -21.3% | |
| Under 3.5 | 78.7% | 1.27 | 1.22 | 82.0% | -3.9% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes | 46.4% | 2.16 | 1.99 | 50.3% | -7.8% | |
| BTTS no | 53.6% | 1.86 | 1.82 | 54.9% | -2.4% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 33.4% | 2.99 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 47.2% | 2.12 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 19.4% | 5.15 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.497 × 2.31 − 1 = +0.147 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.113 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 2.0% of bankroll
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Villa Valle | Brusaporto |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | WDWWDD | LLLLWL |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 3-3-0 | 1-0-5 |
| Points per match | 2.00 | 0.50 |
| Goals for / match | 1.00 | 0.33 |
| Goals against / match | 0.17 | 1.17 |
| Over 2.5 | 17% | 17% |
| BTTS | 17% | 17% |
| Clean sheets | 83% | 0% |
| Failed to score | 33% | 83% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Villa Valle ahead at 50%, against 26% for Brusaporto and 24% for the draw. Standings: Villa Valle 7th on 17, Brusaporto 16th on 9.
Form
Villa Valle, last six: W D W W D D – three wins in total. Latest: 1–0 at home to Brusaporto. Per match: 1.0 scored, 0.2 conceded. 5 shut-outs in that run.
Brusaporto, last six: L L L L W L – one win in total. Latest: 0–1 away at Villa Valle. Only 0.3 goals a match in that spell. No shut-outs in that run.
Head to head
Last meeting (Oct 2026): Villa Valle 1–0 Brusaporto. Old results carry little weight next to current ratings.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Villa Valle 1.33 · Brusaporto 0.86 · total 2.18. A quiet game expected, with under 2.5 at 60%.
Model selection (graded)
Pre-match selection: Villa Valle to win, probability 50%, odds 2.31 v fair 2.01. Most probable score: Villa Valle 1–0 Brusaporto. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →- 28 Oct 2026Villa Valle1–0Brusaporto
Serie D Girone B table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Chievo | 11 | +16 | 25 |
| 2 |  Nibbiano & Valtidone | 11 | +9 | 25 |
| 3 |  Milan II | 11 | +6 | 23 |
| 4 |  Piacenza | 11 | +10 | 21 |
| 5 |  Leon | 11 | +6 | 21 |
| 6 |  Caldiero Terme | 11 | +3 | 18 |
| 7 |  Villa Valle | 11 | +5 | 17 |
| 8 |  Pavonese | 11 | -1 | 16 |
| 9 |  Scanzorosciate | 11 | 0 | 14 |
| 10 |  Pro Palazzolo | 11 | -5 | 14 |
| 11 |  Real Calepina | 11 | -4 | 13 |
| 12 |  Virtus Verona | 11 | -5 | 12 |
| 13 |  Club Milano | 11 | -4 | 11 |
| 14 |  Rovato Vertovese | 11 | -3 | 10 |
| 15 |  Virtus Ciserano Bergamo | 11 | -5 | 10 |
| 16 |  Brusaporto | 11 | -10 | 9 |
| 17 |  Fiorenzuola | 11 | -8 | 6 |
| 18 |  Tritium | 11 | -10 | 6 |
More Serie D Girone B predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Villa Valle vs Brusaporto?
The Model pick is Villa Valle to win with a model probability of 50, priced around 2.31 by the bookmakers.
What are the Villa Valle v Brusaporto probabilities?
Villa Valle win 50%, draw 24%, Brusaporto win 26%.
What is the most probable score for Villa Valle vs Brusaporto?
Villa Valle 1–0 Brusaporto is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Villa Valle vs Brusaporto?
Villa Valle 1.33, Brusaporto 0.86 – over 2.5 at 40%, BTTS at 46%.
What time is Villa Valle vs Brusaporto?
Sunday 1 November 2026, 14:30 WAT – Serie D Girone B.