- λ home
- 1.57
- λ away
- 2.77
- Σλ total
- 4.34
- P(over 2.5)
- 80%
- P(BTTS)
- 75%
- Modal score
- 1–2 7.8%
Colchester United U21 vs Charlton Athletic U21 prediction & xG model: Charlton Athletic U21 to win
Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick landed ✓
Colchester United U21 v Charlton Athletic U21: how the Arena called it
- Full time
- 0–4
- Votes
- 0
- Takes
- 0
- Back / fade
- 0 / 0
- Arena tipCharlton Athletic U21 to win✓
- VotersNobody called this one–
Your call Voting closed at kick-off
This debate is closed. The takes below stay up as a record of what the Arena said.
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How the numbers for Colchester United U21 v Charlton Athletic U21 are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to all competitions results (23 and 27 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colchester United U21 (home) | 1.66 | 1.03 | 1.05 | 1.80 |
| Charlton Athletic U21 (away) | 1.38 | 1.17 | 1.58 | 2.54 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.66 × 1.03 × 1.05 ≈ 1.80
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 4.33 | 45% |
| Statistical xG feed | 4.47 | 25% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 4.23 | 30% |
| Blended total λ | 4.34 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.57, λaway = 2.77
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 20.1%
- Σ draw cells
- 17.3%
- Σ away-win cells
- 62.6%
- Most probable score
- 1–2 · 7.8%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Colchester United U21 | 27.0% | 20.0% | 25.2% | 22.2% |
| X Draw | 19.3% | 9.0% | 18.8% | 13.1% |
| 2 Charlton Athletic U21 | 53.7% | 71.0% | 56.1% | 64.7% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.122 → 12.2% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Colchester United U21 | 22.2% | 4.51 | 3.54 | 28.2% | -21.5% | |
| X · Draw | 13.1% | 7.63 | 4.75 | 21.1% | -37.8% | |
| 2 · Charlton Athletic U21 pick | 64.7% | 1.55 | 1.59 | 62.9% | +2.9% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 35.3% | 2.83 | 2.04 | 49.0% | -28.0% | |
| X2 | 77.8% | 1.28 | 1.19 | 84.0% | -7.4% | |
| 12 | 86.9% | 1.15 | 1.10 | 90.9% | -4.4% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Colchester United U21 | 25.5% | 3.92 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Charlton Athletic U21 | 74.5% | 1.34 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 93.0% | 1.07 | – | – | – | |
| Under 1.5 | 7.0% | 14.38 | 9.10 | 11.0% | -36.7% | |
| Over 2.5 | 80.1% | 1.25 | 1.14 | 87.7% | -8.7% | |
| Under 2.5 | 19.9% | 5.03 | 4.40 | 22.7% | -12.4% | |
| Over 3.5 | 62.5% | 1.60 | 1.48 | 67.6% | -7.5% | |
| Under 3.5 | 37.5% | 2.67 | 2.41 | 41.5% | -9.6% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes | 74.6% | 1.34 | 1.22 | 82.0% | -9.0% | |
| BTTS no | 25.4% | 3.94 | 3.58 | 27.9% | -9.1% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 21.1% | 4.74 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 30.2% | 3.31 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 48.7% | 2.05 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.647 × 1.59 − 1 = +0.029 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.049 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 1.2% of bankroll
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Colchester United U21 | Charlton Athletic U21 |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | WLLWLL | WLLDLW |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 2-0-4 | 2-1-3 |
| Points per match | 1.00 | 1.17 |
| Goals for / match | 2.50 | 2.50 |
| Goals against / match | 2.50 | 2.50 |
| Over 2.5 | 83% | 83% |
| BTTS | 83% | 83% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 17% |
| Failed to score | 17% | 0% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Away favourites: Charlton Athletic U21 65%, Colchester United U21 22%. Standings: Colchester United U21 13th on 9, Charlton Athletic U21 9th on 12.
Form
Sequence for Colchester United U21: W L L W L L, so two victories in six. Latest: 5–1 at home to Queens Park Rangers U21. 2.5 goals a match in that spell. No shut-outs in that run.
Charlton Athletic U21 have two wins from their last six (W L L D L W). Latest: 6–2 at home to Stockport County U21. Scoring rate: 2.5 per match – well above average.
Head to head
Last meeting (Apr 2026): Charlton Athletic U21 2–2 Colchester United U21. Old results carry little weight next to current ratings.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Colchester United U21 1.57 · Charlton Athletic U21 2.77 · total 4.34. Goals expected – 80% for over 2.5 and 75% for both teams to score.
Model selection (graded)
Pre-match selection: Charlton Athletic U21 to win, probability 65%, odds 1.59 v fair 1.55. Most probable score: Colchester United U21 1–2 Charlton Athletic U21. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →- 17 Apr 2026Charlton Athletic U212–2Colchester United U21
Professional Development League table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Bolton Wanderers Res. | 9 | +12 | 21 |
| 2 |  Fleetwood Town U21 | 10 | -3 | 19 |
| 3 |  Swansea City U21 | 10 | +5 | 18 |
| 4 |  Coventry City U21 | 9 | +4 | 14 |
| 5 |  Cardiff City U21 | 9 | +6 | 13 |
| 6 |  Sheffield United U21 | 8 | +5 | 13 |
| 7 |  Huddersfield Town U21 | 6 | +8 | 12 |
| 8 |  Bristol City U21 | 9 | +1 | 12 |
| 9 |  Charlton Athletic U21 | 10 | +1 | 12 |
| 10 |  Peterborough United U21 | 8 | -5 | 11 |
| 11 |  Queens Park Rangers U21 | 11 | -9 | 11 |
| 12 |  Wigan Athletic U21 | 9 | -5 | 10 |
| 13 |  Colchester United U21 | 9 | -7 | 9 |
| 14 |  Hull City U21 | 7 | -1 | 8 |
| 15 |  Barnsley U21 | 8 | -7 | 8 |
| 16 |  Sheffield Wednesday U21 | 8 | -3 | 7 |
| 17 |  Millwall U21 | 6 | -2 | 6 |
More Professional Development League predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Colchester United U21 vs Charlton Athletic U21?
The Model pick is Charlton Athletic U21 to win with a model probability of 65, priced around 1.59 by the bookmakers.
What are the Colchester United U21 v Charlton Athletic U21 probabilities?
Colchester United U21 win 22%, draw 13%, Charlton Athletic U21 win 65%.
What is the most probable score for Colchester United U21 vs Charlton Athletic U21?
Colchester United U21 1–2 Charlton Athletic U21 is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Colchester United U21 vs Charlton Athletic U21?
Colchester United U21 1.57, Charlton Athletic U21 2.77 – over 2.5 at 80%, BTTS at 75%.
What time is Colchester United U21 vs Charlton Athletic U21?
Tuesday 10 November 2026, 15:00 WAT – Professional Development League.