- λ home
- 2.52
- λ away
- 1.14
- Σλ total
- 3.66
- P(over 2.5)
- 74%
- P(BTTS)
- 65%
- Modal score
- 2–1 9.3%
Hull City U21 vs Fleetwood Town U21 prediction & xG model: Hull City U21 to win
Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick landed ✓
Hull City U21 v Fleetwood Town U21: how the Arena called it
- Full time
- 3–0
- Votes
- 0
- Takes
- 0
- Back / fade
- 0 / 0
- Arena tipHull City U21 to win✓
- VotersNobody called this one–
Your call Voting closed at kick-off
This debate is closed. The takes below stay up as a record of what the Arena said.
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How the numbers for Hull City U21 v Fleetwood Town U21 are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to all competitions results (22 and 25 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hull City U21 (home) | 1.66 | 0.87 | 1.17 | 1.69 |
| Fleetwood Town U21 (away) | 1.38 | 0.77 | 0.93 | 0.99 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.66 × 0.87 × 1.17 ≈ 1.69
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 2.68 | 45% |
| Statistical xG feed | 3.20 | 25% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 4.04 | 30% |
| Blended total λ | 3.66 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 2.52, λaway = 1.14
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 67.2%
- Σ draw cells
- 17.4%
- Σ away-win cells
- 15.4%
- Most probable score
- 2–1 · 9.3%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Hull City U21 | 53.1% | 68.0% | 65.5% | 67.0% |
| X Draw | 25.3% | 18.0% | 17.6% | 17.9% |
| 2 Fleetwood Town U21 | 21.6% | 14.0% | 16.8% | 15.2% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.122 → 12.2% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Hull City U21 pick | 67.0% | 1.49 | 1.36 | 73.5% | -8.9% | |
| X · Draw | 17.9% | 5.60 | 5.05 | 19.8% | -9.8% | |
| 2 · Fleetwood Town U21 | 15.2% | 6.59 | 5.30 | 18.9% | -19.5% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 84.8% | 1.18 | 1.07 | 93.5% | -9.2% | |
| X2 | 33.0% | 3.03 | 2.59 | 38.6% | -14.4% | |
| 12 | 82.1% | 1.22 | 1.08 | 92.6% | -11.3% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Hull City U21 | 81.5% | 1.23 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Fleetwood Town U21 | 18.5% | 5.41 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 88.2% | 1.13 | 1.02 | 98.0% | -10.0% | |
| Under 1.5 | 11.8% | 8.48 | 7.80 | 12.8% | -8.1% | |
| Over 2.5 | 73.8% | 1.36 | 1.18 | 84.7% | -13.0% | |
| Under 2.5 | 26.2% | 3.81 | 3.90 | 25.6% | +2.3% | |
| Over 3.5 | 54.2% | 1.84 | 1.54 | 64.9% | -16.5% | |
| Under 3.5 | 45.8% | 2.18 | 2.19 | 45.7% | +0.3% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes | 65.5% | 1.53 | 1.32 | 75.8% | -13.6% | |
| BTTS no | 34.5% | 2.90 | 2.92 | 34.2% | +0.8% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 50.5% | 1.98 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 32.8% | 3.05 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 16.7% | 5.98 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.670 × 1.36 − 1 = -0.089 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.000 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.0% of bankroll (no stake – the price has no edge)
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Hull City U21 | Fleetwood Town U21 |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | WDWDLL | LWDDWW |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 2-2-2 | 3-2-1 |
| Points per match | 1.33 | 1.83 |
| Goals for / match | 1.17 | 1.33 |
| Goals against / match | 1.33 | 0.83 |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 33% |
| BTTS | 50% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 33% |
| Failed to score | 17% | 17% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Strong home favourites – Hull City U21 67% to win. Standings: Hull City U21 14th on 8, Fleetwood Town U21 2nd on 19.
Form
Sequence for Hull City U21: W D W D L L, so two victories in six. Latest: 1–0 at home to Derby County U21. Per match: 1.2 scored, 1.3 conceded. 3 shut-outs in that run.
Fleetwood Town U21 have three wins from their last six (L W D D W W). Latest: 0–1 away at Preston North End U21. Per match: 1.3 scored, 0.8 conceded.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Hull City U21 2.52 · Fleetwood Town U21 1.14 · total 3.66. Goals expected – 74% for over 2.5 and 65% for both teams to score.
Model selection (graded)
Pre-match selection: Hull City U21 to win, probability 67%, odds 1.36 v fair 1.49. Most probable score: Hull City U21 2–1 Fleetwood Town U21. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →No previous meeting in our data.
Professional Development League table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Bolton Wanderers Res. | 9 | +12 | 21 |
| 2 |  Fleetwood Town U21 | 10 | -3 | 19 |
| 3 |  Swansea City U21 | 10 | +5 | 18 |
| 4 |  Coventry City U21 | 9 | +4 | 14 |
| 5 |  Cardiff City U21 | 9 | +6 | 13 |
| 6 |  Sheffield United U21 | 8 | +5 | 13 |
| 7 |  Huddersfield Town U21 | 6 | +8 | 12 |
| 8 |  Bristol City U21 | 9 | +1 | 12 |
| 9 |  Charlton Athletic U21 | 10 | +1 | 12 |
| 10 |  Peterborough United U21 | 8 | -5 | 11 |
| 11 |  Queens Park Rangers U21 | 11 | -9 | 11 |
| 12 |  Wigan Athletic U21 | 9 | -5 | 10 |
| 13 |  Colchester United U21 | 9 | -7 | 9 |
| 14 |  Hull City U21 | 7 | -1 | 8 |
| 15 |  Barnsley U21 | 8 | -7 | 8 |
| 16 |  Sheffield Wednesday U21 | 8 | -3 | 7 |
| 17 |  Millwall U21 | 6 | -2 | 6 |
More Professional Development League predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Hull City U21 vs Fleetwood Town U21?
The Model pick is Hull City U21 to win with a model probability of 67, priced around 1.36 by the bookmakers.
What are the Hull City U21 v Fleetwood Town U21 probabilities?
Hull City U21 win 67%, draw 18%, Fleetwood Town U21 win 15%.
What is the most probable score for Hull City U21 vs Fleetwood Town U21?
Hull City U21 2–1 Fleetwood Town U21 is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Hull City U21 vs Fleetwood Town U21?
Hull City U21 2.52, Fleetwood Town U21 1.14 – over 2.5 at 74%, BTTS at 65%.
What time is Hull City U21 vs Fleetwood Town U21?
Tuesday 10 November 2026, 14:00 WAT – Professional Development League.