- λ home
- 1.43
- λ away
- 1.27
- Σλ total
- 2.71
- P(over 2.5)
- 49%
- P(BTTS)
- 50%
- Modal score
- 1–1 12.2%
Robres vs Illueca prediction & xG model: Both teams to score
In-play probabilities
The pre-match expected goals, scaled to the minutes left and added to the current score. Updates every 30 seconds.
Pre-match: Robres 41% · draw 24% · Illueca 35%. The live model cannot see red cards or substitutions – read it as a guide.
Robres v Illueca: what are you seeing?
- 70′
- 3–1
- Votes
- 0
- Takes
- 0
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How the numbers for Robres v Illueca are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to league results (15 and 17 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robres (home) | 1.56 | 0.90 | 1.06 | 1.49 |
| Illueca (away) | 1.06 | 0.94 | 1.31 | 1.31 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.56 × 0.90 × 1.06 ≈ 1.49
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 2.80 | 45% |
| Statistical xG feed | 2.75 | 25% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 2.53 | 30% |
| Blended total λ | 2.71 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.43, λaway = 1.27
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 40.8%
- Σ draw cells
- 25.7%
- Σ away-win cells
- 33.5%
- Most probable score
- 1–1 · 12.2%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Robres | 41.0% | 42.0% | 40.9% | 41.2% |
| X Draw | 26.4% | 11.0% | 28.9% | 23.9% |
| 2 Illueca | 32.7% | 47.0% | 30.2% | 35.0% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.122 → 12.2% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Robres | 41.2% | 2.43 | 2.18 | 45.9% | -10.3% | |
| X · Draw | 23.9% | 4.19 | 3.08 | 32.5% | -26.5% | |
| 2 · Illueca | 35.0% | 2.86 | 2.95 | 33.9% | +3.1% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 65.0% | 1.54 | 1.28 | 78.1% | -16.7% | |
| X2 | 58.8% | 1.70 | 1.51 | 66.2% | -11.2% | |
| 12 | 76.1% | 1.31 | 1.26 | 79.4% | -4.1% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Robres | 54.1% | 1.85 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Illueca | 45.9% | 2.18 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 72.4% | 1.38 | 1.30 | 76.9% | -5.9% | |
| Under 1.5 | 27.6% | 3.62 | 2.97 | 33.7% | -18.0% | |
| Over 2.5 | 48.6% | 2.06 | 1.98 | 50.5% | -3.9% | |
| Under 2.5 | 51.4% | 1.94 | 1.71 | 58.5% | -12.0% | |
| Over 3.5 | 27.9% | 3.59 | 3.34 | 29.9% | -6.9% | |
| Under 3.5 | 72.1% | 1.39 | 1.24 | 80.6% | -10.6% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes pick | 50.5% | 1.98 | 1.76 | 56.8% | -11.1% | |
| BTTS no | 49.5% | 2.02 | 1.88 | 53.2% | -6.9% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 31.1% | 3.21 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 42.1% | 2.37 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 26.7% | 3.74 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.505 × 1.76 − 1 = -0.111 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.000 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.0% of bankroll (no stake – the price has no edge)
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Robres | Illueca |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | DDDDLL | DLWLDW |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 0-4-2 | 2-2-2 |
| Points per match | 0.67 | 1.33 |
| Goals for / match | 0.83 | 1.33 |
| Goals against / match | 1.50 | 1.17 |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 50% |
| BTTS | 67% | 33% |
| Clean sheets | 17% | 50% |
| Failed to score | 33% | 33% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Probabilities are almost level: 41 / 24 / 35% for home, draw, away. Standings: Robres 17th on 5, Illueca 15th on 11.
Form
Robres have zero wins from their last six (D D D D L L). Latest: 1–1 away at Belchite 97. Only 0.8 goals a match in that spell.
Illueca, last six: D L W L D W – two wins in total. Latest: 2–2 at home to Caspe. Per match: 1.3 scored, 1.2 conceded. 3 shut-outs in that run.
Head to head
Last meeting (Mar 2026): Robres 2–3 Illueca. Old results carry little weight next to current ratings.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Robres 1.43 · Illueca 1.27 · total 2.71. Balanced goal lines: over 2.5 49%, BTTS 50%.
Model selection
Highest-rated market: Both teams to score, probability 50%, odds 1.76 v fair 1.98. Most probable score: Robres 2–1 Illueca. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →- 22 Mar 2026Robres2–3Illueca
Tercera División RFEF Group 17 table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Real Zaragoza II | 10 | +14 | 23 |
| 2 |  Ejea | 10 | +6 | 20 |
| 3 |  Cuarte | 10 | +8 | 18 |
| 4 |  Brea | 10 | +8 | 18 |
| 5 |  La Almunia | 10 | +2 | 16 |
| 6 |  Caspe | 10 | +4 | 15 |
| 7 |  Atlético Monzón | 10 | -3 | 15 |
| 8 |  Huesca II | 10 | +2 | 14 |
| 9 |  Binéfar | 10 | +1 | 13 |
| 10 |  CD Sietamo | 10 | +1 | 13 |
| 11 |  Épila | 10 | 0 | 12 |
| 12 |  Almudévar | 10 | -1 | 12 |
| 13 |  Fraga | 10 | -1 | 12 |
| 14 |  Andorra CF | 10 | -5 | 12 |
| 15 |  Illueca | 10 | -3 | 11 |
| 16 |  CDJ Tamarite | 10 | -8 | 9 |
| 17 |  Robres | 10 | -10 | 5 |
| 18 |  Belchite 97 | 10 | -15 | 4 |
More Tercera División RFEF Group 17 predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Robres vs Illueca?
The Model pick is Both teams to score with a model probability of 50, priced around 1.76 by the bookmakers.
What are the Robres v Illueca probabilities?
Robres win 41%, draw 24%, Illueca win 35%.
What is the most probable score for Robres vs Illueca?
Robres 2–1 Illueca is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Robres vs Illueca?
Robres 1.43, Illueca 1.27 – over 2.5 at 49%, BTTS at 50%.
What time is Robres vs Illueca?
Sunday 15 November 2026, 15:30 WAT – Tercera División RFEF Group 17.