- λ home
- 1.69
- λ away
- 0.99
- Σλ total
- 2.68
- P(over 2.5)
- 48%
- P(BTTS)
- 47%
- Modal score
- 1–0 11.6%
Almudévar vs CDJ Tamarite prediction & xG model: Not both teams to score
In-play probabilities
The pre-match expected goals, scaled to the minutes left and added to the current score. Updates every 30 seconds.
Pre-match: Almudévar 53% · draw 22% · CDJ Tamarite 24%. The live model cannot see red cards or substitutions – read it as a guide.
Almudévar v CDJ Tamarite: what are you seeing?
- HT
- 1–0
- Votes
- 0
- Takes
- 0
- Back / fade
- 0 / 0
Your call Voting closed at kick-off
Live thread
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How the numbers for Almudévar v CDJ Tamarite are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to league results (18 and 14 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Almudévar (home) | 1.56 | 0.76 | 1.44 | 1.71 |
| CDJ Tamarite (away) | 1.06 | 1.11 | 0.81 | 0.96 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.56 × 0.76 × 1.44 ≈ 1.71
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 2.67 | 45% |
| Statistical xG feed | 2.85 | 25% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 2.54 | 30% |
| Blended total λ | 2.68 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.69, λaway = 0.99
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 53.6%
- Σ draw cells
- 24.2%
- Σ away-win cells
- 22.2%
- Most probable score
- 1–0 · 11.6%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Almudévar | 54.1% | 47.0% | 56.1% | 53.3% |
| X Draw | 25.1% | 11.0% | 26.1% | 22.2% |
| 2 CDJ Tamarite | 20.8% | 42.0% | 17.8% | 24.5% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.121 → 12.1% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Almudévar | 53.3% | 1.88 | 1.59 | 62.9% | -15.3% | |
| X · Draw | 22.2% | 4.49 | 3.42 | 29.2% | -23.9% | |
| 2 · CDJ Tamarite | 24.5% | 4.09 | 5.00 | 20.0% | +22.3% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 75.5% | 1.32 | 1.09 | 91.7% | -17.7% | |
| X2 | 46.7% | 2.14 | 2.04 | 49.0% | -4.7% | |
| 12 | 77.8% | 1.29 | 1.21 | 82.6% | -5.9% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Almudévar | 68.5% | 1.46 | – | – | – | |
| DNB CDJ Tamarite | 31.5% | 3.18 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 72.7% | 1.38 | 1.28 | 78.1% | -7.0% | |
| Under 1.5 | 27.3% | 3.66 | 3.08 | 32.5% | -15.9% | |
| Over 2.5 | 48.4% | 2.07 | 1.96 | 51.0% | -5.1% | |
| Under 2.5 | 51.6% | 1.94 | 1.72 | 58.1% | -11.3% | |
| Over 3.5 | 27.3% | 3.67 | 3.42 | 29.2% | -6.7% | |
| Under 3.5 | 72.7% | 1.38 | 1.23 | 81.3% | -10.6% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes | 46.9% | 2.13 | 1.92 | 52.1% | -10.0% | |
| BTTS no pick | 53.1% | 1.88 | 1.73 | 57.8% | -8.1% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 38.9% | 2.57 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 41.6% | 2.40 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 19.5% | 5.12 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.531 × 1.73 − 1 = -0.081 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.000 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.0% of bankroll (no stake – the price has no edge)
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Almudévar | CDJ Tamarite |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | DWLDDL | LLLWLL |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 1-3-2 | 1-0-5 |
| Points per match | 1.00 | 0.50 |
| Goals for / match | 0.33 | 1.33 |
| Goals against / match | 0.83 | 2.67 |
| Over 2.5 | 17% | 83% |
| BTTS | 0% | 67% |
| Clean sheets | 67% | 0% |
| Failed to score | 83% | 33% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Slight home preference: Almudévar 53%, draw 22%, CDJ Tamarite 24%. Standings: Almudévar 12th on 12, CDJ Tamarite 16th on 9.
Form
Almudévar have one win from their last six (D W L D D L). Latest: 0–0 away at Binéfar. Only 0.3 goals a match in that spell. 4 shut-outs in that run.
CDJ Tamarite, last six: L L L W L L – one win in total. Latest: 1–2 away at Andorra CF. Per match: 1.3 scored, 2.7 conceded. No shut-outs in that run.
Head to head
Last meeting (Feb 2026): Almudévar 1–1 CDJ Tamarite. Old results carry little weight next to current ratings.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Almudévar 1.69 · CDJ Tamarite 0.99 · total 2.68. Balanced goal lines: over 2.5 48%, BTTS 47%.
Model selection
Model selection: Not both teams to score, probability 53%, odds 1.73 v fair 1.88. Most probable score: Almudévar 1–0 CDJ Tamarite. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →- 15 Feb 2026Almudévar1–1CDJ Tamarite
Tercera División RFEF Group 17 table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Real Zaragoza II | 10 | +14 | 23 |
| 2 |  Ejea | 10 | +6 | 20 |
| 3 |  Cuarte | 10 | +8 | 18 |
| 4 |  Brea | 10 | +8 | 18 |
| 5 |  La Almunia | 10 | +2 | 16 |
| 6 |  Caspe | 10 | +4 | 15 |
| 7 |  Atlético Monzón | 10 | -3 | 15 |
| 8 |  Huesca II | 10 | +2 | 14 |
| 9 |  Binéfar | 10 | +1 | 13 |
| 10 |  CD Sietamo | 10 | +1 | 13 |
| 11 |  Épila | 10 | 0 | 12 |
| 12 |  Almudévar | 10 | -1 | 12 |
| 13 |  Fraga | 10 | -1 | 12 |
| 14 |  Andorra CF | 10 | -5 | 12 |
| 15 |  Illueca | 10 | -3 | 11 |
| 16 |  CDJ Tamarite | 10 | -8 | 9 |
| 17 |  Robres | 10 | -10 | 5 |
| 18 |  Belchite 97 | 10 | -15 | 4 |
More Tercera División RFEF Group 17 predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Almudévar vs CDJ Tamarite?
The Model pick is Not both teams to score with a model probability of 53, priced around 1.73 by the bookmakers.
What are the Almudévar v CDJ Tamarite probabilities?
Almudévar win 53%, draw 22%, CDJ Tamarite win 24%.
What is the most probable score for Almudévar vs CDJ Tamarite?
Almudévar 1–0 CDJ Tamarite is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Almudévar vs CDJ Tamarite?
Almudévar 1.69, CDJ Tamarite 0.99 – over 2.5 at 48%, BTTS at 47%.
What time is Almudévar vs CDJ Tamarite?
Sunday 15 November 2026, 16:00 WAT – Tercera División RFEF Group 17.