- λ home
- 1.21
- λ away
- 1.07
- Σλ total
- 2.28
- P(over 2.5)
- 41%
- P(BTTS)
- 54%
- Modal score
- 1–1 13.2%
Churriana Vega vs Motril prediction & xG model: Both teams to score
In-play probabilities
The pre-match expected goals, scaled to the minutes left and added to the current score. Updates every 30 seconds.
Pre-match: Churriana Vega 35% · draw 27% · Motril 38%. The live model cannot see red cards or substitutions – read it as a guide.
Churriana Vega v Motril: who are you backing?
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How the numbers for Churriana Vega v Motril are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to league results (22 and 24 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Churriana Vega (home) | 1.37 | 1.04 | 0.86 | 1.22 |
| Motril (away) | 0.95 | 1.10 | 0.86 | 0.90 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.37 × 1.04 × 0.86 ≈ 1.22
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 2.12 | 45% |
| Statistical xG feed | 2.45 | 25% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 2.37 | 30% |
| Blended total λ | 2.28 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.21, λaway = 1.07
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 39.3%
- Σ draw cells
- 28.5%
- Σ away-win cells
- 32.2%
- Most probable score
- 1–1 · 13.2%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Churriana Vega | 42.5% | 37.0% | 27.5% | 34.9% |
| X Draw | 30.9% | 18.0% | 29.5% | 27.3% |
| 2 Motril | 26.6% | 45.0% | 43.0% | 37.8% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.123 → 12.3% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Churriana Vega | 34.9% | 2.86 | 3.24 | 30.9% | +13.2% | |
| X · Draw | 27.3% | 3.66 | 3.02 | 33.1% | -17.5% | |
| 2 · Motril | 37.8% | 2.65 | 2.07 | 48.3% | -21.8% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 62.2% | 1.61 | 1.57 | 63.7% | -2.3% | |
| X2 | 65.1% | 1.54 | 1.24 | 80.6% | -19.3% | |
| 12 | 72.7% | 1.38 | 1.27 | 78.7% | -7.7% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Churriana Vega | 48.0% | 2.08 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Motril | 52.0% | 1.92 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 66.4% | 1.51 | 1.36 | 73.5% | -9.7% | |
| Under 1.5 | 33.6% | 2.98 | 2.70 | 37.0% | -9.4% | |
| Over 2.5 | 41.0% | 2.44 | 2.17 | 46.1% | -11.0% | |
| Under 2.5 | 59.0% | 1.70 | 1.59 | 62.9% | -6.2% | |
| Over 3.5 | 21.2% | 4.71 | 3.95 | 25.3% | -16.2% | |
| Under 3.5 | 78.8% | 1.27 | 1.17 | 85.5% | -7.8% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes pick | 54.5% | 1.84 | 1.88 | 53.2% | +2.4% | |
| BTTS no | 45.5% | 2.20 | 1.76 | 56.8% | -19.8% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 28.9% | 3.46 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 46.5% | 2.15 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 24.6% | 4.06 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.545 × 1.88 − 1 = +0.024 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.027 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.7% of bankroll
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Churriana Vega | Motril |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | WDDDWW | DDLWDW |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 3-3-0 | 2-3-1 |
| Points per match | 2.00 | 1.50 |
| Goals for / match | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Goals against / match | 0.50 | 1.33 |
| Over 2.5 | 33% | 33% |
| BTTS | 33% | 67% |
| Clean sheets | 67% | 33% |
| Failed to score | 33% | 17% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Probabilities are almost level: 35 / 27 / 38% for home, draw, away. Standings: Churriana Vega 7th on 15, Motril 6th on 17.
Form
Churriana Vega have three wins from their last six (W D D D W W). Latest: 2–0 at home to Atletico de Marbella. Per match: 1.5 scored, 0.5 conceded. 4 shut-outs in that run.
Motril, last six: D D L W D W – two wins in total. Latest: 0–0 at home to Almería II. Per match: 1.5 scored, 1.3 conceded.
Head to head
Previous 2: Churriana Vega 0, Motril 0, drawn 2, 1.0 goals per meeting. Last meeting (May 2026): Motril 0–0 Churriana Vega. Old results carry little weight next to current ratings.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Churriana Vega 1.21 · Motril 1.07 · total 2.28. Balanced goal lines: over 2.5 41%, BTTS 54%.
Model selection
Highest-rated market: Both teams to score, probability 54%, odds 1.88 v fair 1.84. Most probable score: Churriana Vega 1–2 Motril. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →- 24 May 2026Motril0–0Churriana Vega
- 17 May 2026Churriana Vega1–1Motril
Tercera División RFEF Group 9 table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Arenas Armilla | 11 | +10 | 23 |
| 2 |  Melilla | 10 | +10 | 23 |
| 3 |  Ciudad de Torredonjimeno | 10 | +9 | 20 |
| 4 |  Málaga II | 11 | +9 | 19 |
| 5 |  Almería II | 10 | +8 | 19 |
| 6 |  Motril | 10 | +4 | 17 |
| 7 |  Churriana Vega | 10 | +5 | 15 |
| 8 |  Marbelli | 10 | 0 | 15 |
| 9 |  UD San Pedro | 10 | -2 | 15 |
| 10 |  Granada II | 10 | +3 | 13 |
| 11 |  Huétor Vega | 10 | -2 | 13 |
| 12 |  Atlético Porcuna | 10 | -6 | 13 |
| 13 |  Torre del Mar | 10 | -1 | 12 |
| 14 |  Alhaurino | 10 | -4 | 9 |
| 15 |  Atletico de Marbella | 10 | -6 | 7 |
| 16 |  Mancha Real | 10 | -8 | 7 |
| 17 |  Cantoria | 10 | -11 | 4 |
| 18 |  Malaga City | 10 | -18 | 0 |
More Tercera División RFEF Group 9 predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Churriana Vega vs Motril?
The Model pick is Both teams to score with a model probability of 54, priced around 1.88 by the bookmakers.
What are the Churriana Vega v Motril probabilities?
Churriana Vega win 35%, draw 27%, Motril win 38%.
What is the most probable score for Churriana Vega vs Motril?
Churriana Vega 1–2 Motril is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Churriana Vega vs Motril?
Churriana Vega 1.21, Motril 1.07 – over 2.5 at 41%, BTTS at 54%.
What time is Churriana Vega vs Motril?
Sunday 15 November 2026, 12:30 WAT – Tercera División RFEF Group 9.