- λ home
- 1.22
- λ away
- 1.26
- Σλ total
- 2.49
- P(over 2.5)
- 48%
- P(BTTS)
- 52%
- Modal score
- 1–1 12.9%
Almería II vs Melilla prediction & xG model: Under 3.5 goals
In-play probabilities
The pre-match expected goals, scaled to the minutes left and added to the current score. Updates every 30 seconds.
Pre-match: Almería II 40% · draw 18% · Melilla 42%. The live model cannot see red cards or substitutions – read it as a guide.
Almería II v Melilla: who are you backing?
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How the numbers for Almería II v Melilla are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Not enough history for team ratings – the goal estimate uses the statistical feed and the market line only.
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Statistical xG feed | 2.20 | 45% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 2.72 | 55% |
| Blended total λ | 2.49 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.22, λaway = 1.26
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 35.4%
- Σ draw cells
- 27.1%
- Σ away-win cells
- 37.5%
- Most probable score
- 1–1 · 12.9%
Blending with the market
With no ratings for these teams, the statistical feed is blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Almería II | – | 39.0% | 41.6% | 40.1% |
| X Draw | – | 11.0% | 27.0% | 17.7% |
| 2 Melilla | – | 50.0% | 31.4% | 42.2% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.122 → 12.2% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Almería II | 40.1% | 2.49 | 2.14 | 46.7% | -14.2% | |
| X · Draw | 17.7% | 5.64 | 3.30 | 30.3% | -41.5% | |
| 2 · Melilla | 42.2% | 2.37 | 2.84 | 35.2% | +19.8% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 57.8% | 1.73 | 1.30 | 76.9% | -24.8% | |
| X2 | 59.9% | 1.67 | 1.53 | 65.4% | -8.4% | |
| 12 | 82.3% | 1.22 | 1.22 | 82.0% | +0.4% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Almería II | 48.7% | 2.05 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Melilla | 51.3% | 1.95 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 72.6% | 1.38 | 1.22 | 82.0% | -11.5% | |
| Under 1.5 | 27.4% | 3.65 | 3.50 | 28.6% | -4.0% | |
| Over 2.5 | 48.2% | 2.07 | 1.79 | 55.9% | -13.6% | |
| Under 2.5 | 51.8% | 1.93 | 1.88 | 53.2% | -2.7% | |
| Over 3.5 | 27.2% | 3.68 | 2.97 | 33.7% | -19.2% | |
| Under 3.5 pick | 72.8% | 1.37 | 1.30 | 76.9% | -5.4% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes | 51.7% | 1.93 | 1.64 | 61.0% | -15.2% | |
| BTTS no | 48.3% | 2.07 | 2.04 | 49.0% | -1.4% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 27.2% | 3.67 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 44.3% | 2.26 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 28.5% | 3.51 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.728 × 1.30 − 1 = -0.054 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.000 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.0% of bankroll (no stake – the price has no edge)
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Almería II | Melilla |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | DDDWWD | DDWLWW |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 2-4-0 | 3-2-1 |
| Points per match | 1.67 | 1.83 |
| Goals for / match | 1.00 | 1.33 |
| Goals against / match | 0.67 | 0.83 |
| Over 2.5 | 33% | 33% |
| BTTS | 50% | 33% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 50% |
| Failed to score | 33% | 33% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
No clear favourite in the grid – Almería II 40%, draw 18%, Melilla 42%. Standings: Almería II 4th on 19, Melilla 1st on 23.
Form
Sequence for Almería II: D D D W W D, so two victories in six. Latest: 0–0 away at Motril. Per match: 1.0 scored, 0.7 conceded. 3 shut-outs in that run.
Melilla have three wins from their last six (D D W L W W). Latest: 0–0 at home to Granada II. Per match: 1.3 scored, 0.8 conceded. 3 shut-outs in that run.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Almería II 1.22 · Melilla 1.26 · total 2.49. Balanced goal lines: over 2.5 48%, BTTS 52%.
Model selection
Highest-rated market: Under 3.5 goals, probability 73%, odds 1.30 v fair 1.37. Most probable score: Almería II 0–1 Melilla. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →No previous meeting in our data.
Tercera División RFEF Group 9 table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Melilla | 10 | +10 | 23 |
| 2 |  Arenas Armilla | 10 | +10 | 22 |
| 3 |  Ciudad de Torredonjimeno | 10 | +9 | 20 |
| 4 |  Almería II | 10 | +8 | 19 |
| 5 |  Málaga II | 10 | +9 | 18 |
| 6 |  Motril | 10 | +4 | 17 |
| 7 |  Churriana Vega | 10 | +5 | 15 |
| 8 |  Marbelli | 10 | 0 | 15 |
| 9 |  UD San Pedro | 10 | -2 | 15 |
| 10 |  Granada II | 10 | +3 | 13 |
| 11 |  Huétor Vega | 10 | -2 | 13 |
| 12 |  Atlético Porcuna | 10 | -6 | 13 |
| 13 |  Torre del Mar | 10 | -1 | 12 |
| 14 |  Alhaurino | 10 | -4 | 9 |
| 15 |  Atletico de Marbella | 10 | -6 | 7 |
| 16 |  Mancha Real | 10 | -8 | 7 |
| 17 |  Cantoria | 10 | -11 | 4 |
| 18 |  Malaga City | 10 | -18 | 0 |
Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Almería II vs Melilla?
The Model pick is Under 3.5 goals with a model probability of 73, priced around 1.30 by the bookmakers.
What are the Almería II v Melilla probabilities?
Almería II win 40%, draw 18%, Melilla win 42%.
What is the most probable score for Almería II vs Melilla?
Almería II 0–1 Melilla is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Almería II vs Melilla?
Almería II 1.22, Melilla 1.26 – over 2.5 at 48%, BTTS at 52%.
What time is Almería II vs Melilla?
Sunday 15 November 2026, 12:00 WAT – Tercera División RFEF Group 9.