- λ home
- 1.29
- λ away
- 1.38
- Σλ total
- 2.67
- P(over 2.5)
- 47%
- P(BTTS)
- 49%
- Modal score
- 1–1 12.3%
Peralada vs Badalona prediction & xG model: Not both teams to score
In-play probabilities
The pre-match expected goals, scaled to the minutes left and added to the current score. Updates every 30 seconds.
Pre-match: Peralada 32% · draw 24% · Badalona 44%. The live model cannot see red cards or substitutions – read it as a guide.
Peralada v Badalona: what are you seeing?
- 26′
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How the numbers for Peralada v Badalona are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to league results (22 and 25 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peralada (home) | 1.45 | 1.06 | 0.95 | 1.47 |
| Badalona (away) | 1.14 | 1.19 | 1.03 | 1.39 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.45 × 1.06 × 0.95 ≈ 1.47
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 2.86 | 45% |
| Statistical xG feed | 2.60 | 25% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 2.44 | 30% |
| Blended total λ | 2.67 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.29, λaway = 1.38
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 34.8%
- Σ draw cells
- 26.0%
- Σ away-win cells
- 39.2%
- Most probable score
- 1–1 · 12.3%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Peralada | 38.7% | 33.0% | 26.2% | 32.1% |
| X Draw | 26.1% | 11.0% | 28.6% | 23.6% |
| 2 Badalona | 35.2% | 56.0% | 45.2% | 44.2% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.122 → 12.2% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Peralada | 32.1% | 3.11 | 3.40 | 29.4% | +9.2% | |
| X · Draw | 23.6% | 4.23 | 3.12 | 32.1% | -26.3% | |
| 2 · Badalona | 44.2% | 2.26 | 1.97 | 50.8% | -12.8% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 55.8% | 1.79 | 1.63 | 61.3% | -9.1% | |
| X2 | 67.9% | 1.47 | 1.21 | 82.6% | -17.9% | |
| 12 | 76.4% | 1.31 | 1.25 | 80.0% | -4.5% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Peralada | 42.1% | 2.38 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Badalona | 57.9% | 1.73 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 71.8% | 1.39 | 1.31 | 76.3% | -5.9% | |
| Under 1.5 | 28.2% | 3.55 | 2.92 | 34.2% | -17.7% | |
| Over 2.5 | 47.0% | 2.13 | 2.08 | 48.1% | -2.2% | |
| Under 2.5 | 53.0% | 1.89 | 1.64 | 61.0% | -13.1% | |
| Over 3.5 | 26.0% | 3.84 | 3.75 | 26.7% | -2.4% | |
| Under 3.5 | 74.0% | 1.35 | 1.19 | 84.0% | -12.0% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes | 49.3% | 2.03 | 1.83 | 54.6% | -9.7% | |
| BTTS no pick | 50.7% | 1.97 | 1.81 | 55.2% | -8.3% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 27.4% | 3.65 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 42.5% | 2.35 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 30.1% | 3.32 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.507 × 1.81 − 1 = -0.083 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.000 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.0% of bankroll (no stake – the price has no edge)
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Peralada | Badalona |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | LWLDDD | WWLDDW |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 1-3-2 | 3-2-1 |
| Points per match | 1.00 | 1.83 |
| Goals for / match | 1.17 | 1.67 |
| Goals against / match | 1.50 | 1.33 |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 67% |
| BTTS | 83% | 67% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 33% |
| Failed to score | 17% | 17% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Marginal away preference, 44% against 32%. Standings: Peralada 15th on 11, Badalona 4th on 17.
Form
Peralada, last six: L W L D D D – one win in total. Latest: 1–3 away at San Juan Atletico de Montcada. Per match: 1.2 scored, 1.5 conceded. No shut-outs in that run.
Badalona have three wins from their last six (W W L D D W). Latest: 2–1 at home to Mollerussa. Per match: 1.7 scored, 1.3 conceded.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Peralada 1.29 · Badalona 1.38 · total 2.67. Balanced goal lines: over 2.5 47%, BTTS 49%.
Model selection
Selection: Not both teams to score, probability 51%, odds 1.81 v fair 1.97. Most probable score: Peralada 0–1 Badalona. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →No previous meeting in our data.
Tercera División RFEF Group 5 table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Vilanova | 10 | +3 | 19 |
| 2 |  Atlètic Lleida | 11 | +4 | 18 |
| 3 |  Europa II | 10 | +8 | 17 |
| 4 |  Badalona | 10 | +6 | 17 |
| 5 |  Montañesa | 10 | +6 | 17 |
| 6 |  Cerdanyola del Vallès | 10 | +1 | 16 |
| 7 |  L'Hospitalet | 10 | +2 | 15 |
| 8 |  Tona | 10 | -2 | 14 |
| 9 |  Grama | 10 | +6 | 13 |
| 10 |  Pobla Mafumet | 10 | 0 | 13 |
| 11 |  San Juan Atletico de Montcada | 10 | -4 | 13 |
| 12 |  Vilassar Mar | 10 | -4 | 12 |
| 13 |  Martinenc | 11 | -6 | 12 |
| 14 |  Cornellà | 10 | +1 | 11 |
| 15 |  Peralada | 10 | 0 | 11 |
| 16 |  Mollerussa | 10 | -2 | 11 |
| 17 |  L'Escala | 10 | -3 | 9 |
| 18 |  San Cristóbal | 10 | -16 | 8 |
More Tercera División RFEF Group 5 predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Peralada vs Badalona?
The Model pick is Not both teams to score with a model probability of 51, priced around 1.81 by the bookmakers.
What are the Peralada v Badalona probabilities?
Peralada win 32%, draw 24%, Badalona win 44%.
What is the most probable score for Peralada vs Badalona?
Peralada 0–1 Badalona is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Peralada vs Badalona?
Peralada 1.29, Badalona 1.38 – over 2.5 at 47%, BTTS at 49%.
What time is Peralada vs Badalona?
Sunday 15 November 2026, 16:30 WAT – Tercera División RFEF Group 5.