- λ home
- 1.53
- λ away
- 1.19
- Σλ total
- 2.72
- P(over 2.5)
- 50%
- P(BTTS)
- 57%
- Modal score
- 1–1 12.0%
L'Hospitalet vs Europa II prediction & xG model: Both teams to score
Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick missed ✗
L'Hospitalet v Europa II: how the Arena called it
- Full time
- 1–0
- Votes
- 0
- Takes
- 0
- Back / fade
- 0 / 0
- Arena tipBoth teams to score✗
- VotersNobody called this one–
Your call Voting closed at kick-off
This debate is closed. The takes below stay up as a record of what the Arena said.
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- No takes yet. Say what you think – the first take sits at the top.
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How the numbers for L'Hospitalet v Europa II are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to league results (21 and 20 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| L'Hospitalet (home) | 1.45 | 1.16 | 0.96 | 1.61 |
| Europa II (away) | 1.14 | 1.22 | 0.88 | 1.22 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.45 × 1.16 × 0.96 ≈ 1.61
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 2.83 | 45% |
| Statistical xG feed | 2.60 | 25% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 2.66 | 30% |
| Blended total λ | 2.72 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.53, λaway = 1.19
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 45.0%
- Σ draw cells
- 25.3%
- Σ away-win cells
- 29.8%
- Most probable score
- 1–1 · 12.0%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 L'Hospitalet | 45.7% | 45.0% | 42.1% | 44.0% |
| X Draw | 25.7% | 18.0% | 29.0% | 25.3% |
| 2 Europa II | 28.5% | 37.0% | 29.0% | 30.7% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.121 → 12.1% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · L'Hospitalet | 44.0% | 2.27 | 2.12 | 47.2% | -6.7% | |
| X · Draw | 25.3% | 3.95 | 3.08 | 32.5% | -22.1% | |
| 2 · Europa II | 30.7% | 3.26 | 3.08 | 32.5% | -5.5% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 69.3% | 1.44 | 1.26 | 79.4% | -12.7% | |
| X2 | 56.0% | 1.79 | 1.54 | 64.9% | -13.8% | |
| 12 | 74.7% | 1.34 | 1.26 | 79.4% | -5.9% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB L'Hospitalet | 58.9% | 1.70 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Europa II | 41.1% | 2.43 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 74.0% | 1.35 | 1.25 | 80.0% | -7.5% | |
| Under 1.5 | 26.0% | 3.84 | 3.28 | 30.5% | -14.6% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50.4% | 1.98 | 1.85 | 54.1% | -6.8% | |
| Under 2.5 | 49.6% | 2.02 | 1.82 | 54.9% | -9.7% | |
| Over 3.5 | 29.3% | 3.41 | 3.05 | 32.8% | -10.6% | |
| Under 3.5 | 70.7% | 1.41 | 1.28 | 78.1% | -9.5% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes pick | 57.1% | 1.75 | 1.67 | 59.9% | -4.7% | |
| BTTS no | 42.9% | 2.33 | 2.01 | 49.8% | -13.7% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 33.7% | 2.97 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 41.8% | 2.39 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 24.4% | 4.09 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.571 × 1.67 − 1 = -0.047 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.000 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.0% of bankroll (no stake – the price has no edge)
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | L'Hospitalet | Europa II |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | DLDWWD | WWWLLW |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 2-3-1 | 4-0-2 |
| Points per match | 1.50 | 2.00 |
| Goals for / match | 1.17 | 2.33 |
| Goals against / match | 1.17 | 0.83 |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 50% |
| BTTS | 67% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 17% | 17% |
| Failed to score | 33% | 33% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Slight home preference: L'Hospitalet 44%, draw 25%, Europa II 31%. Standings: L'Hospitalet 7th on 15, Europa II 3rd on 17.
Form
L'Hospitalet, last six: D L D W W D – two wins in total. Latest: 0–0 away at Grama. Per match: 1.2 scored, 1.2 conceded.
Europa II have four wins from their last six (W W W L L W). Latest: 2–1 at home to Cornellà. 2.3 goals a match in that spell.
Head to head
Last meeting (Mar 2026): Europa II 0–3 L'Hospitalet. Old results carry little weight next to current ratings.
Expected goals (xG)
xG L'Hospitalet 1.53 · Europa II 1.19 · total 2.72. Balanced goal lines: over 2.5 50%, BTTS 57%.
Model selection (graded)
Pre-match selection: Both teams to score, probability 57%, odds 1.67 v fair 1.75. Most probable score: L'Hospitalet 2–1 Europa II. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →- 15 Mar 2026Europa II0–3L'Hospitalet
Tercera División RFEF Group 5 table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Vilanova | 10 | +3 | 19 |
| 2 |  Atlètic Lleida | 11 | +4 | 18 |
| 3 |  Europa II | 10 | +8 | 17 |
| 4 |  Badalona | 10 | +6 | 17 |
| 5 |  Montañesa | 10 | +6 | 17 |
| 6 |  Cerdanyola del Vallès | 10 | +1 | 16 |
| 7 |  L'Hospitalet | 10 | +2 | 15 |
| 8 |  Tona | 10 | -2 | 14 |
| 9 |  Grama | 10 | +6 | 13 |
| 10 |  Pobla Mafumet | 10 | 0 | 13 |
| 11 |  San Juan Atletico de Montcada | 10 | -4 | 13 |
| 12 |  Vilassar Mar | 10 | -4 | 12 |
| 13 |  Martinenc | 11 | -6 | 12 |
| 14 |  Cornellà | 10 | +1 | 11 |
| 15 |  Peralada | 10 | 0 | 11 |
| 16 |  Mollerussa | 10 | -2 | 11 |
| 17 |  L'Escala | 10 | -3 | 9 |
| 18 |  San Cristóbal | 10 | -16 | 8 |
More Tercera División RFEF Group 5 predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for L'Hospitalet vs Europa II?
The Model pick is Both teams to score with a model probability of 57, priced around 1.67 by the bookmakers.
What are the L'Hospitalet v Europa II probabilities?
L'Hospitalet win 44%, draw 25%, Europa II win 31%.
What is the most probable score for L'Hospitalet vs Europa II?
L'Hospitalet 2–1 Europa II is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for L'Hospitalet vs Europa II?
L'Hospitalet 1.53, Europa II 1.19 – over 2.5 at 50%, BTTS at 57%.
What time is L'Hospitalet vs Europa II?
Sunday 15 November 2026, 12:00 WAT – Tercera División RFEF Group 5.