- λ home
- 2.76
- λ away
- 1.48
- Σλ total
- 4.24
- P(over 2.5)
- 75%
- P(BTTS)
- 67%
- Modal score
- 2–1 8.1%
Wolverhampton W vs Durham W prediction & xG model: Both teams to score
In-play probabilities
The pre-match expected goals, scaled to the minutes left and added to the current score. Updates every 30 seconds.
Pre-match: Wolverhampton W 66% · draw 18% · Durham W 16%. The live model cannot see red cards or substitutions – read it as a guide.
Wolverhampton W v Durham W: who are you backing?
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How the numbers for Wolverhampton W v Durham W are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to league results (7 and 14 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wolverhampton W (home) | 1.78 | 1.06 | 1.57 | 2.95 |
| Durham W (away) | 1.49 | 0.88 | 1.28 | 1.67 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.78 × 1.06 × 1.57 ≈ 2.95
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 4.62 | 45% |
| Statistical xG feed | 4.29 | 25% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 3.63 | 30% |
| Blended total λ | 4.24 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 2.76, λaway = 1.48
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 64.4%
- Σ draw cells
- 17.0%
- Σ away-win cells
- 18.6%
- Most probable score
- 2–1 · 8.1%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Wolverhampton W | 63.6% | 63.0% | 68.5% | 65.5% |
| X Draw | 16.8% | 22.0% | 17.6% | 18.3% |
| 2 Durham W | 19.7% | 15.0% | 13.8% | 16.1% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.122 → 12.2% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Wolverhampton W | 65.5% | 1.53 | 1.30 | 76.9% | -14.8% | |
| X · Draw | 18.3% | 5.45 | 5.05 | 19.8% | -7.4% | |
| 2 · Durham W | 16.1% | 6.20 | 6.45 | 15.5% | +4.0% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 83.9% | 1.19 | 1.03 | 97.1% | -13.6% | |
| X2 | 34.5% | 2.90 | 2.84 | 35.2% | -2.1% | |
| 12 | 81.7% | 1.22 | 1.08 | 92.6% | -11.8% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Wolverhampton W | 80.2% | 1.25 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Durham W | 19.8% | 5.06 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 92.5% | 1.08 | – | – | – | |
| Under 1.5 | 7.5% | 13.25 | – | – | – | |
| Over 2.5 | 74.9% | 1.34 | 1.29 | 77.5% | -3.4% | |
| Under 2.5 | 25.1% | 3.98 | 3.04 | 32.9% | -23.6% | |
| Over 3.5 | 55.8% | 1.79 | 1.82 | 54.9% | +1.6% | |
| Under 3.5 | 44.2% | 2.26 | 1.85 | 54.1% | -18.2% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes pick | 67.1% | 1.49 | 1.49 | 67.1% | +0.0% | |
| BTTS no | 32.9% | 3.04 | 2.34 | 42.7% | -23.1% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 49.7% | 2.01 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 30.4% | 3.29 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 19.9% | 5.04 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.671 × 1.49 − 1 = +0.000 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.001 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.0% of bankroll
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Wolverhampton W | Durham W |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | LWLLDD | LLLLLL |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 1-2-3 | 0-0-6 |
| Points per match | 0.83 | 0.00 |
| Goals for / match | 1.50 | 1.00 |
| Goals against / match | 3.17 | 4.50 |
| Over 2.5 | 100% | 100% |
| BTTS | 83% | 67% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 0% |
| Failed to score | 17% | 33% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Strong home favourites – Wolverhampton W 66% to win. Standings: Wolverhampton W 8th on 7, Durham W 12th on 0.
Form
Wolverhampton W have one win from their last six (L W L L D D). Latest: 1–4 at home to Nottingham Forest W. Per match: 1.5 scored, 3.2 conceded. No shut-outs in that run.
Durham W, last six: L L L L L L – zero wins in total. Latest: 0–6 away at Everton W. Per match: 1.0 scored, 4.5 conceded. No shut-outs in that run.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Wolverhampton W 2.76 · Durham W 1.48 · total 4.24. Goals expected – 75% for over 2.5 and 67% for both teams to score.
Model selection
Model selection: Both teams to score, probability 67%, odds 1.49 v fair 1.49. Most probable score: Wolverhampton W 2–1 Durham W. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →No previous meeting in our data.
Women's Championship table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Newcastle United W | 7 | +16 | 19 |
| 2 |  Sunderland W | 7 | +8 | 16 |
| 3 |  Bristol City W | 8 | +6 | 16 |
| 4 |  Ipswich Town W | 7 | +5 | 14 |
| 5 |  Nottingham Forest W | 7 | +6 | 13 |
| 6 |  Southampton W | 7 | +4 | 10 |
| 7 |  Watford W | 7 | -2 | 9 |
| 8 |  Wolverhampton W | 7 | -4 | 7 |
| 9 |  Leicester City FC W | 7 | -5 | 7 |
| 10 |  Sheffield United W | 8 | -8 | 6 |
| 11 |  Burnley W | 7 | -10 | 2 |
| 12 |  Durham W | 7 | -16 | 0 |
More Women's Championship predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Wolverhampton W vs Durham W?
The Model pick is Both teams to score with a model probability of 67, priced around 1.49 by the bookmakers.
What are the Wolverhampton W v Durham W probabilities?
Wolverhampton W win 66%, draw 18%, Durham W win 16%.
What is the most probable score for Wolverhampton W vs Durham W?
Wolverhampton W 2–1 Durham W is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Wolverhampton W vs Durham W?
Wolverhampton W 2.76, Durham W 1.48 – over 2.5 at 75%, BTTS at 67%.
What time is Wolverhampton W vs Durham W?
Sunday 15 November 2026, 15:00 WAT, at New Bucks Head – Women's Championship.