- λ home
- 1.28
- λ away
- 1.64
- Σλ total
- 2.92
- P(over 2.5)
- 54%
- P(BTTS)
- 62%
- Modal score
- 1–1 11.3%
Sunderland W vs Newcastle United W prediction & xG model: Both teams to score
Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick missed ✗
Sunderland W v Newcastle United W: how the Arena called it
- Full time
- 0–0
- Votes
- 0
- Takes
- 0
- Back / fade
- 0 / 0
- Arena tipBoth teams to score✗
- VotersNobody called this one–
Your call Voting closed at kick-off
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- No takes yet. Say what you think – the first take sits at the top.
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How the numbers for Sunderland W v Newcastle United W are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to league results (15 and 12 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sunderland W (home) | 1.78 | 1.15 | 0.60 | 1.22 |
| Newcastle United W (away) | 1.49 | 1.25 | 0.87 | 1.61 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.78 × 1.15 × 0.60 ≈ 1.22
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 2.84 | 45% |
| Statistical xG feed | 3.29 | 25% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 2.75 | 30% |
| Blended total λ | 2.92 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.28, λaway = 1.64
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 29.8%
- Σ draw cells
- 24.2%
- Σ away-win cells
- 46.0%
- Most probable score
- 1–1 · 11.3%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Sunderland W | 28.5% | 33.0% | 30.9% | 30.6% |
| X Draw | 25.7% | 17.0% | 27.0% | 24.2% |
| 2 Newcastle United W | 45.8% | 50.0% | 42.0% | 45.2% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.122 → 12.2% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Sunderland W | 30.6% | 3.27 | 2.88 | 34.7% | -12.0% | |
| X · Draw | 24.2% | 4.13 | 3.30 | 30.3% | -20.0% | |
| 2 · Newcastle United W | 45.2% | 2.21 | 2.12 | 47.2% | -4.2% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 54.8% | 1.82 | 1.54 | 64.9% | -15.6% | |
| X2 | 69.4% | 1.44 | 1.30 | 76.9% | -9.7% | |
| 12 | 75.8% | 1.32 | 1.22 | 82.0% | -7.6% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Sunderland W | 40.3% | 2.48 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Newcastle United W | 59.7% | 1.68 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 76.5% | 1.31 | 1.22 | 82.0% | -6.6% | |
| Under 1.5 | 23.5% | 4.26 | 3.50 | 28.6% | -17.8% | |
| Over 2.5 | 53.8% | 1.86 | 1.77 | 56.5% | -4.7% | |
| Under 2.5 | 46.2% | 2.17 | 1.90 | 52.6% | -12.3% | |
| Over 3.5 | 32.5% | 3.08 | 2.88 | 34.7% | -6.5% | |
| Under 3.5 | 67.5% | 1.48 | 1.32 | 75.8% | -10.9% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes pick | 61.8% | 1.62 | 1.62 | 61.7% | +0.1% | |
| BTTS no | 38.2% | 2.62 | 2.08 | 48.1% | -20.6% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 24.9% | 4.01 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 40.1% | 2.49 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 35.0% | 2.86 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.618 × 1.62 − 1 = +0.001 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.002 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.1% of bankroll
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Sunderland W | Newcastle United W |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | LWWLWW | WWDLLW |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 4-0-2 | 3-1-2 |
| Points per match | 2.00 | 1.67 |
| Goals for / match | 1.83 | 2.17 |
| Goals against / match | 1.33 | 1.00 |
| Over 2.5 | 67% | 67% |
| BTTS | 67% | 33% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 33% |
| Failed to score | 0% | 33% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Newcastle United W narrowly ahead at 45%; Sunderland W 31%. Standings: Sunderland W 2nd on 16, Newcastle United W 1st on 19.
Form
Sunderland W have four wins from their last six (L W W L W W). Latest: 1–3 away at Birmingham City W. Per match: 1.8 scored, 1.3 conceded.
Newcastle United W have three wins from their last six (W W D L L W). Latest: 3–0 at home to Burnley W. 2.2 goals a match in that spell.
Head to head
Previous 2: Sunderland W 1, Newcastle United W 0, drawn 1, 1.5 goals per meeting. Last meeting (Oct 2026): Newcastle United W 0–1 Sunderland W. Old results carry little weight next to current ratings.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Sunderland W 1.28 · Newcastle United W 1.64 · total 2.92. Goals expected – 54% for over 2.5 and 62% for both teams to score.
Model selection (graded)
Pre-match selection: Both teams to score, probability 62%, odds 1.62 v fair 1.62. Most probable score: Sunderland W 1–2 Newcastle United W. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →- 18 Oct 2026Newcastle United W0–1Sunderland W
- 29 Mar 2026Sunderland W1–1Newcastle United W
Women's Championship table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Newcastle United W | 7 | +16 | 19 |
| 2 |  Sunderland W | 7 | +8 | 16 |
| 3 |  Bristol City W | 8 | +6 | 16 |
| 4 |  Ipswich Town W | 7 | +5 | 14 |
| 5 |  Nottingham Forest W | 7 | +6 | 13 |
| 6 |  Southampton W | 7 | +4 | 10 |
| 7 |  Watford W | 7 | -2 | 9 |
| 8 |  Wolverhampton W | 7 | -4 | 7 |
| 9 |  Leicester City FC W | 7 | -5 | 7 |
| 10 |  Sheffield United W | 8 | -8 | 6 |
| 11 |  Burnley W | 7 | -10 | 2 |
| 12 |  Durham W | 7 | -16 | 0 |
More Women's Championship predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Sunderland W vs Newcastle United W?
The Model pick is Both teams to score with a model probability of 62, priced around 1.62 by the bookmakers.
What are the Sunderland W v Newcastle United W probabilities?
Sunderland W win 31%, draw 24%, Newcastle United W win 45%.
What is the most probable score for Sunderland W vs Newcastle United W?
Sunderland W 1–2 Newcastle United W is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Sunderland W vs Newcastle United W?
Sunderland W 1.28, Newcastle United W 1.64 – over 2.5 at 54%, BTTS at 62%.
What time is Sunderland W vs Newcastle United W?
Sunday 15 November 2026, 15:00 WAT, at Stadium of Light – Women's Championship.