- λ home
- 1.15
- λ away
- 1.58
- Σλ total
- 2.73
- P(over 2.5)
- 51%
- P(BTTS)
- 60%
- Modal score
- 1–1 11.8%
Salernitana vs Catania prediction & xG model: Over 1.5 goals
In-play probabilities
The pre-match expected goals, scaled to the minutes left and added to the current score. Updates every 30 seconds.
Pre-match: Salernitana 29% · draw 22% · Catania 49%. The live model cannot see red cards or substitutions – read it as a guide.
Salernitana v Catania: who are you backing?
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How the numbers for Salernitana v Catania are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Not enough history for team ratings – the goal estimate uses the statistical feed and the market line only.
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Statistical xG feed | 2.73 | 45% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 2.73 | 55% |
| Blended total λ | 2.73 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.15, λaway = 1.58
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 27.6%
- Σ draw cells
- 25.0%
- Σ away-win cells
- 47.5%
- Most probable score
- 1–1 · 11.8%
Blending with the market
With no ratings for these teams, the statistical feed is blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Salernitana | – | 27.0% | 31.4% | 28.9% |
| X Draw | – | 18.0% | 28.3% | 22.3% |
| 2 Catania | – | 55.0% | 40.3% | 48.8% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.104 → 10.4% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Salernitana | 28.9% | 3.46 | 2.88 | 34.7% | -16.9% | |
| X · Draw | 22.3% | 4.48 | 3.20 | 31.3% | -28.6% | |
| 2 · Catania | 48.8% | 2.05 | 2.25 | 44.4% | +9.8% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 51.2% | 1.95 | 1.53 | 65.4% | -21.7% | |
| X2 | 71.1% | 1.41 | 1.33 | 75.2% | -5.4% | |
| 12 | 77.7% | 1.29 | 1.28 | 78.1% | -0.6% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Salernitana | 37.2% | 2.69 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Catania | 62.8% | 1.59 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 pick | 75.3% | 1.33 | 1.25 | 80.0% | -5.8% | |
| Under 1.5 | 24.7% | 4.05 | 3.75 | 26.7% | -7.5% | |
| Over 2.5 | 51.3% | 1.95 | 1.85 | 54.1% | -5.0% | |
| Under 2.5 | 48.7% | 2.05 | 1.95 | 51.3% | -5.1% | |
| Over 3.5 | 30.2% | 3.31 | 3.00 | 33.3% | -9.4% | |
| Under 3.5 | 69.8% | 1.43 | 1.36 | 73.5% | -5.1% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes | 60.0% | 1.67 | 1.67 | 59.9% | +0.1% | |
| BTTS no | 40.0% | 2.50 | 2.10 | 47.6% | -15.9% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 23.1% | 4.33 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 41.6% | 2.40 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 35.3% | 2.83 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.753 × 1.25 − 1 = -0.058 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.000 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.0% of bankroll (no stake – the price has no edge)
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Salernitana | Catania |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | LDLDDW | WLWLWW |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 1-3-2 | 4-0-2 |
| Points per match | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| Goals for / match | 0.83 | 2.33 |
| Goals against / match | 1.33 | 0.67 |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 67% |
| BTTS | 50% | 33% |
| Clean sheets | 17% | 50% |
| Failed to score | 50% | 17% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Marginal away preference, 49% against 29%. Standings: Salernitana 14th on 15, Catania 3rd on 22.
Form
Salernitana have one win from their last six (L D L D D W). Latest: 0–1 away at Inter U23. Only 0.8 goals a match in that spell.
Catania, last six: W L W L W W – four wins in total. Latest: 2–0 at home to Sorrento. Scoring rate: 2.3 per match – well above average. 3 shut-outs in that run.
Head to head
Last meeting (Mar 2026): Salernitana 0–0 Catania. Old results carry little weight next to current ratings.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Salernitana 1.15 · Catania 1.58 · total 2.73. Balanced goal lines: over 2.5 51%, BTTS 60%.
Model selection
Selection: Over 1.5 goals, probability 75%, odds 1.25 v fair 1.33. Most probable score: Salernitana 1–2 Catania. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →- 1 Mar 2026Salernitana0–0Catania
Serie C Girone C table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Potenza | 13 | +17 | 32 |
| 2 |  Bari | 13 | +7 | 23 |
| 3 |  Catania | 13 | +13 | 22 |
| 4 |  Scafatese | 13 | +5 | 21 |
| 5 |  Audace Cerignola | 13 | +5 | 20 |
| 6 |  SS Monopoli | 13 | +4 | 20 |
| 7 |  Inter U23 | 13 | +2 | 20 |
| 8 |  Casertana | 13 | +2 | 20 |
| 9 |  Sorrento | 13 | +1 | 20 |
| 10 |  AZ Picerno | 13 | +3 | 19 |
| 11 |  Cavese | 13 | +1 | 16 |
| 12 |  Team Altamura | 13 | -6 | 16 |
| 13 |  Giugliano | 13 | -12 | 16 |
| 14 |  Salernitana | 13 | -2 | 15 |
| 15 |  Barletta | 13 | -2 | 15 |
| 16 |  Foggia | 13 | -3 | 15 |
| 17 |  Casarano | 13 | -6 | 15 |
| 18 |  Savoia | 13 | -7 | 12 |
| 19 |  Cosenza | 13 | -13 | 10 |
| 20 |  Crotone | 13 | -9 | 1 |
More Serie C Girone C predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Salernitana vs Catania?
The Model pick is Over 1.5 goals with a model probability of 75, priced around 1.25 by the bookmakers.
What are the Salernitana v Catania probabilities?
Salernitana win 29%, draw 22%, Catania win 49%.
What is the most probable score for Salernitana vs Catania?
Salernitana 1–2 Catania is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Salernitana vs Catania?
Salernitana 1.15, Catania 1.58 – over 2.5 at 51%, BTTS at 60%.
What time is Salernitana vs Catania?
Sunday 15 November 2026, 14:30 WAT, at Stadio Arechi – Serie C Girone C.