- λ home
- 1.47
- λ away
- 0.83
- Σλ total
- 2.30
- P(over 2.5)
- 43%
- P(BTTS)
- 51%
- Modal score
- 1–0 14.7%
Barletta vs Team Altamura prediction & xG model: Under 2.5 goals
In-play probabilities
The pre-match expected goals, scaled to the minutes left and added to the current score. Updates every 30 seconds.
Pre-match: Barletta 53% · draw 27% · Team Altamura 20%. The live model cannot see red cards or substitutions – read it as a guide.
Barletta v Team Altamura: who are you backing?
- Votes
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- Takes
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- Back / fade
- 0 / 0
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How the numbers for Barletta v Team Altamura are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to league results (13 and 21 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Barletta (home) | 1.58 | 0.83 | 1.04 | 1.35 |
| Team Altamura (away) | 1.10 | 0.83 | 0.86 | 0.79 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.58 × 0.83 × 1.04 ≈ 1.35
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 2.14 | 45% |
| Statistical xG feed | 2.38 | 25% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 2.47 | 30% |
| Blended total λ | 2.30 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.47, λaway = 0.83
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 52.1%
- Σ draw cells
- 26.6%
- Σ away-win cells
- 21.3%
- Most probable score
- 1–0 · 14.7%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Barletta | 48.9% | 65.0% | 49.1% | 52.7% |
| X Draw | 29.6% | 22.0% | 27.2% | 26.8% |
| 2 Team Altamura | 21.5% | 13.0% | 23.7% | 20.4% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.113 → 11.3% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Barletta | 52.7% | 1.90 | 1.83 | 54.6% | -3.5% | |
| X · Draw | 26.8% | 3.73 | 3.30 | 30.3% | -11.4% | |
| 2 · Team Altamura | 20.4% | 4.90 | 3.80 | 26.3% | -22.4% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 79.6% | 1.26 | 1.18 | 84.7% | -6.1% | |
| X2 | 47.3% | 2.12 | 1.80 | 55.6% | -14.9% | |
| 12 | 73.2% | 1.37 | 1.25 | 80.0% | -8.6% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Barletta | 72.1% | 1.39 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Team Altamura | 27.9% | 3.58 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 67.9% | 1.47 | 1.36 | 73.5% | -7.7% | |
| Under 1.5 | 32.1% | 3.11 | 3.00 | 33.3% | -3.6% | |
| Over 2.5 | 42.6% | 2.35 | 2.10 | 47.6% | -10.6% | |
| Under 2.5 pick | 57.4% | 1.74 | 1.70 | 58.8% | -2.4% | |
| Over 3.5 | 22.5% | 4.44 | 3.75 | 26.7% | -15.5% | |
| Under 3.5 | 77.5% | 1.29 | 1.25 | 80.0% | -3.2% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes | 51.0% | 1.96 | 1.91 | 52.4% | -2.6% | |
| BTTS no | 49.0% | 2.04 | 1.80 | 55.6% | -11.8% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 36.6% | 2.73 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 45.5% | 2.20 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 17.9% | 5.57 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.574 × 1.70 − 1 = -0.024 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.000 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.0% of bankroll (no stake – the price has no edge)
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Barletta | Team Altamura |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | WDLWDL | DWDDWL |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 2-2-2 | 2-3-1 |
| Points per match | 1.33 | 1.50 |
| Goals for / match | 0.50 | 1.50 |
| Goals against / match | 0.50 | 1.50 |
| Over 2.5 | 0% | 83% |
| BTTS | 17% | 67% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 17% |
| Failed to score | 50% | 33% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Slight home preference: Barletta 53%, draw 27%, Team Altamura 20%. Standings: Barletta 16th on 15, Team Altamura 13th on 16.
Form
Barletta have two wins from their last six (W D L W D L). Latest: 1–0 away at Foggia. The scoring rate has dropped to 0.5 per match. 3 shut-outs in that run.
Team Altamura, last six: D W D D W L – two wins in total. Latest: 2–2 at home to Cavese. Per match: 1.5 scored, 1.5 conceded.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Barletta 1.47 · Team Altamura 0.83 · total 2.30. Balanced goal lines: over 2.5 43%, BTTS 51%.
Model selection
Model selection: Under 2.5 goals, probability 57%, odds 1.70 v fair 1.74. Most probable score: Barletta 1–0 Team Altamura. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →No previous meeting in our data.
Serie C Girone C table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Potenza | 13 | +17 | 32 |
| 2 |  Bari | 14 | +8 | 26 |
| 3 |  Catania | 13 | +13 | 22 |
| 4 |  Scafatese | 13 | +5 | 21 |
| 5 |  Audace Cerignola | 13 | +5 | 20 |
| 6 |  SS Monopoli | 13 | +4 | 20 |
| 7 |  Inter U23 | 13 | +2 | 20 |
| 8 |  Casertana | 13 | +2 | 20 |
| 9 |  Sorrento | 13 | +1 | 20 |
| 10 |  AZ Picerno | 14 | +1 | 19 |
| 11 |  Casarano | 14 | -4 | 18 |
| 12 |  Cavese | 13 | +1 | 16 |
| 13 |  Team Altamura | 13 | -6 | 16 |
| 14 |  Giugliano | 13 | -12 | 16 |
| 15 |  Salernitana | 13 | -2 | 15 |
| 16 |  Barletta | 13 | -2 | 15 |
| 17 |  Foggia | 14 | -4 | 15 |
| 18 |  Savoia | 13 | -7 | 12 |
| 19 |  Cosenza | 13 | -13 | 10 |
| 20 |  Crotone | 13 | -9 | 1 |
More Serie C Girone C predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Barletta vs Team Altamura?
The Model pick is Under 2.5 goals with a model probability of 57, priced around 1.70 by the bookmakers.
What are the Barletta v Team Altamura probabilities?
Barletta win 53%, draw 27%, Team Altamura win 20%.
What is the most probable score for Barletta vs Team Altamura?
Barletta 1–0 Team Altamura is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Barletta vs Team Altamura?
Barletta 1.47, Team Altamura 0.83 – over 2.5 at 43%, BTTS at 51%.
What time is Barletta vs Team Altamura?
Sunday 15 November 2026, 17:30 WAT, at Stadio Comunale Cosimo Puttilli – Serie C Girone C.