- λ home
- 2.58
- λ away
- 1.04
- Σλ total
- 3.62
- P(over 2.5)
- 71%
- P(BTTS)
- 62%
- Modal score
- 2–1 9.3%
Mika vs Shirak II prediction & xG model: Both teams to score
Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick missed ✗
Mika v Shirak II: how the Arena called it
- Full time
- 3–0
- Votes
- 0
- Takes
- 0
- Back / fade
- 0 / 0
- Arena tipBoth teams to score✗
- VotersNobody called this one–
Your call Voting closed at kick-off
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How the numbers for Mika v Shirak II are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to all competitions results (18 and 17 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mika (home) | 1.66 | 0.99 | 1.59 | 2.63 |
| Shirak II (away) | 1.38 | 0.78 | 1.00 | 1.07 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.66 × 0.99 × 1.59 ≈ 2.63
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 3.69 | 45% |
| Statistical xG feed | 3.55 | 25% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 3.67 | 30% |
| Blended total λ | 3.62 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 2.58, λaway = 1.04
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 70.5%
- Σ draw cells
- 16.4%
- Σ away-win cells
- 13.1%
- Most probable score
- 2–1 · 9.3%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Mika | 70.1% | 71.0% | 68.2% | 69.8% |
| X Draw | 16.9% | 18.0% | 17.4% | 17.8% |
| 2 Shirak II | 13.0% | 11.0% | 14.3% | 12.4% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.111 → 11.1% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Mika | 69.8% | 1.43 | 1.32 | 75.8% | -7.8% | |
| X · Draw | 17.8% | 5.63 | 5.16 | 19.4% | -8.3% | |
| 2 · Shirak II | 12.4% | 8.06 | 6.28 | 15.9% | -22.1% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 87.6% | 1.14 | – | – | – | |
| X2 | 30.2% | 3.31 | 2.77 | 36.1% | -16.4% | |
| 12 | 82.2% | 1.22 | – | – | – | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Mika | 84.9% | 1.18 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Shirak II | 15.1% | 6.63 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 87.6% | 1.14 | – | – | – | |
| Under 1.5 | 12.4% | 8.07 | – | – | – | |
| Over 2.5 | 70.5% | 1.42 | 1.29 | 77.5% | -9.0% | |
| Under 2.5 | 29.5% | 3.39 | 3.16 | 31.6% | -6.9% | |
| Over 3.5 | 49.4% | 2.02 | 1.83 | 54.6% | -9.6% | |
| Under 3.5 | 50.6% | 1.98 | 1.83 | 54.6% | -7.4% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes pick | 62.2% | 1.61 | 1.46 | 68.5% | -9.3% | |
| BTTS no | 37.8% | 2.64 | 2.46 | 40.7% | -6.9% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 52.7% | 1.90 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 32.4% | 3.09 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 14.9% | 6.72 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.622 × 1.46 − 1 = -0.093 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.000 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.0% of bankroll (no stake – the price has no edge)
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Mika | Shirak II |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | WDWLWL | LLLWWL |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 3-1-2 | 2-0-4 |
| Points per match | 1.67 | 1.00 |
| Goals for / match | 1.67 | 1.50 |
| Goals against / match | 1.17 | 2.83 |
| Over 2.5 | 67% | 100% |
| BTTS | 67% | 67% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 0% |
| Failed to score | 17% | 33% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Mika at 70%: ratings and home advantage combine into a clear edge. Standings: Mika 5th on 20, Shirak II 12th on 10.
Form
Mika, last six: W D W L W L – three wins in total. Latest: 3–1 away at Ararat II. Per match: 1.7 scored, 1.2 conceded.
Shirak II have two wins from their last six (L L L W W L). Latest: 2–3 at home to Ararat-Armenia II. Per match: 1.5 scored, 2.8 conceded. No shut-outs in that run.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Mika 2.58 · Shirak II 1.04 · total 3.62. High total: over 2.5 71%, BTTS 62%.
Model selection (graded)
Pre-match selection: Both teams to score, probability 62%, odds 1.46 v fair 1.61. Most probable score: Mika 2–1 Shirak II. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →No previous meeting in our data.
First League table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Olympia Yerevan | 11 | +19 | 27 |
| 2 |  Bentonit Ijevan | 11 | +12 | 22 |
| 3 |  Andranik | 12 | +11 | 22 |
| 4 |  BKMA II | 12 | +10 | 21 |
| 5 |  Mika | 12 | +5 | 20 |
| 6 |  Araks Ararat | 11 | +7 | 19 |
| 7 |  Lernayin Artsakh | 11 | -1 | 15 |
| 8 |  Ararat II | 11 | -1 | 13 |
| 9 |  Pyunik II | 11 | -3 | 12 |
| 10 |  Sardarapat 2 | 11 | -6 | 12 |
| 11 |  Banants II | 12 | -11 | 11 |
| 12 |  Shirak II | 11 | -15 | 10 |
| 13 |  Noah II | 11 | -14 | 10 |
| 14 |  Ararat-Armenia II | 11 | -13 | 6 |
More First League predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Mika vs Shirak II?
The Model pick is Both teams to score with a model probability of 62, priced around 1.46 by the bookmakers.
What are the Mika v Shirak II probabilities?
Mika win 70%, draw 18%, Shirak II win 12%.
What is the most probable score for Mika vs Shirak II?
Mika 2–1 Shirak II is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Mika vs Shirak II?
Mika 2.58, Shirak II 1.04 – over 2.5 at 71%, BTTS at 62%.
What time is Mika vs Shirak II?
Monday 9 November 2026, 11:30 WAT, at MIKA Stadium – First League.