- λ home
- 2.37
- λ away
- 1.39
- Σλ total
- 3.76
- P(over 2.5)
- 73%
- P(BTTS)
- 70%
- Modal score
- 2–1 9.1%
Bentonit Ijevan vs Araks Ararat prediction & xG model: Bentonit Ijevan to win
Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick missed ✗
Bentonit Ijevan v Araks Ararat: how the Arena called it
- Full time
- 2–2
- Votes
- 0
- Takes
- 0
- Back / fade
- 0 / 0
- Arena tipBentonit Ijevan to win✗
- VotersNobody called this one–
Your call Voting closed at kick-off
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How the numbers for Bentonit Ijevan v Araks Ararat are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to all competitions results (19 and 22 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bentonit Ijevan (home) | 1.66 | 1.34 | 0.93 | 2.08 |
| Araks Ararat (away) | 1.38 | 1.00 | 1.15 | 1.58 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.66 × 1.34 × 0.93 ≈ 2.08
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 3.66 | 45% |
| Statistical xG feed | 3.75 | 25% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 3.78 | 30% |
| Blended total λ | 3.76 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 2.37, λaway = 1.39
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 59.1%
- Σ draw cells
- 19.2%
- Σ away-win cells
- 21.6%
- Most probable score
- 2–1 · 9.1%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Bentonit Ijevan | 48.7% | 68.0% | 53.3% | 61.8% |
| X Draw | 21.9% | 9.0% | 20.6% | 13.9% |
| 2 Araks Ararat | 29.4% | 23.0% | 26.1% | 24.3% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.110 → 11.0% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Bentonit Ijevan pick | 61.8% | 1.62 | 1.69 | 59.2% | +4.5% | |
| X · Draw | 13.9% | 7.22 | 4.38 | 22.8% | -39.3% | |
| 2 · Araks Ararat | 24.3% | 4.11 | 3.45 | 29.0% | -16.1% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 75.7% | 1.32 | 1.21 | 82.6% | -8.4% | |
| X2 | 38.2% | 2.62 | 1.91 | 52.4% | -27.1% | |
| 12 | 86.1% | 1.16 | 1.12 | 89.3% | -3.5% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Bentonit Ijevan | 71.8% | 1.39 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Araks Ararat | 28.2% | 3.54 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 89.0% | 1.12 | – | – | – | |
| Under 1.5 | 11.0% | 9.05 | – | – | – | |
| Over 2.5 | 72.6% | 1.38 | 1.26 | 79.4% | -8.5% | |
| Under 2.5 | 27.4% | 3.65 | 3.36 | 29.8% | -8.0% | |
| Over 3.5 | 52.1% | 1.92 | 1.75 | 57.1% | -8.8% | |
| Under 3.5 | 47.9% | 2.09 | 1.92 | 52.1% | -8.1% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes | 69.9% | 1.43 | 1.30 | 76.9% | -9.2% | |
| BTTS no | 30.1% | 3.32 | 3.09 | 32.4% | -6.8% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 45.3% | 2.21 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 33.4% | 2.99 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 21.3% | 4.69 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.618 × 1.69 − 1 = +0.045 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.065 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 1.6% of bankroll
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Bentonit Ijevan | Araks Ararat |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | WWDWWW | WDLWWD |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 5-1-0 | 3-2-1 |
| Points per match | 2.67 | 1.83 |
| Goals for / match | 2.83 | 1.50 |
| Goals against / match | 1.67 | 0.83 |
| Over 2.5 | 67% | 50% |
| BTTS | 83% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 17% | 33% |
| Failed to score | 0% | 50% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Strong home favourites – Bentonit Ijevan 62% to win. Standings: Bentonit Ijevan 2nd on 22, Araks Ararat 6th on 19.
Form
Bentonit Ijevan, last six: W W D W W W – five wins in total. Latest: 2–0 away at Andranik. Scoring rate: 2.8 per match – well above average.
Sequence for Araks Ararat: W D L W W D, so three victories in six. Latest: 4–1 at home to Banants II. Per match: 1.5 scored, 0.8 conceded.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Bentonit Ijevan 2.37 · Araks Ararat 1.39 · total 3.76. Goals expected – 73% for over 2.5 and 70% for both teams to score.
Model selection (graded)
Pre-match selection: Bentonit Ijevan to win, probability 62%, odds 1.69 v fair 1.62. Most probable score: Bentonit Ijevan 2–1 Araks Ararat. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →No previous meeting in our data.
First League table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Olympia Yerevan | 11 | +19 | 27 |
| 2 |  Bentonit Ijevan | 11 | +12 | 22 |
| 3 |  Andranik | 12 | +11 | 22 |
| 4 |  BKMA II | 12 | +10 | 21 |
| 5 |  Mika | 12 | +5 | 20 |
| 6 |  Araks Ararat | 11 | +7 | 19 |
| 7 |  Lernayin Artsakh | 11 | -1 | 15 |
| 8 |  Ararat II | 11 | -1 | 13 |
| 9 |  Pyunik II | 11 | -3 | 12 |
| 10 |  Sardarapat 2 | 11 | -6 | 12 |
| 11 |  Banants II | 12 | -11 | 11 |
| 12 |  Shirak II | 11 | -15 | 10 |
| 13 |  Noah II | 11 | -14 | 10 |
| 14 |  Ararat-Armenia II | 11 | -13 | 6 |
More First League predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Bentonit Ijevan vs Araks Ararat?
The Model pick is Bentonit Ijevan to win with a model probability of 62, priced around 1.69 by the bookmakers.
What are the Bentonit Ijevan v Araks Ararat probabilities?
Bentonit Ijevan win 62%, draw 14%, Araks Ararat win 24%.
What is the most probable score for Bentonit Ijevan vs Araks Ararat?
Bentonit Ijevan 2–1 Araks Ararat is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Bentonit Ijevan vs Araks Ararat?
Bentonit Ijevan 2.37, Araks Ararat 1.39 – over 2.5 at 73%, BTTS at 70%.
What time is Bentonit Ijevan vs Araks Ararat?
Monday 9 November 2026, 11:30 WAT – First League.