- λ home
- 1.79
- λ away
- 0.82
- Σλ total
- 2.61
- P(over 2.5)
- 48%
- P(BTTS)
- 56%
- Modal score
- 1–0 13.1%
FC Politehnica Timisoara vs CSM Reşiţa prediction & xG model: Both teams to score
Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick missed ✗
FC Politehnica Timisoara v CSM Reşiţa: how the Arena called it
- Full time
- 0–0
- Votes
- 0
- Takes
- 0
- Back / fade
- 0 / 0
- Arena tipBoth teams to score✗
- VotersNobody called this one–
Your call Voting closed at kick-off
This debate is closed. The takes below stay up as a record of what the Arena said.
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How the numbers for FC Politehnica Timisoara v CSM Reşiţa are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to league results (13 and 24 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Politehnica Timisoara (home) | 1.61 | 1.09 | 0.90 | 1.57 |
| CSM Reşiţa (away) | 1.24 | 0.85 | 0.70 | 0.73 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.61 × 1.09 × 0.90 ≈ 1.57
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 2.31 | 45% |
| Statistical xG feed | 2.63 | 25% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 2.59 | 30% |
| Blended total λ | 2.61 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.79, λaway = 0.82
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 60.3%
- Σ draw cells
- 22.9%
- Σ away-win cells
- 16.9%
- Most probable score
- 1–0 · 13.1%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 FC Politehnica Timisoara | 56.4% | 65.0% | 58.0% | 62.1% |
| X Draw | 26.6% | 15.0% | 25.1% | 19.2% |
| 2 CSM Reşiţa | 17.0% | 20.0% | 16.9% | 18.7% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.077 → 7.7% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · FC Politehnica Timisoara | 62.1% | 1.61 | 1.60 | 62.5% | -0.7% | |
| X · Draw | 19.2% | 5.20 | 3.70 | 27.0% | -28.8% | |
| 2 · CSM Reşiţa | 18.7% | 5.35 | 5.50 | 18.2% | +2.8% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 81.3% | 1.23 | 1.16 | 86.2% | -5.7% | |
| X2 | 37.9% | 2.64 | 2.32 | 43.1% | -12.0% | |
| 12 | 80.8% | 1.24 | 1.25 | 80.0% | +1.0% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB FC Politehnica Timisoara | 76.9% | 1.30 | – | – | – | |
| DNB CSM Reşiţa | 23.1% | 4.32 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 71.8% | 1.39 | 1.32 | 75.8% | -5.2% | |
| Under 1.5 | 28.2% | 3.55 | 3.10 | 32.3% | -12.6% | |
| Over 2.5 | 48.2% | 2.07 | 1.95 | 51.3% | -6.0% | |
| Under 2.5 | 51.8% | 1.93 | 1.80 | 55.6% | -6.8% | |
| Over 3.5 | 27.8% | 3.60 | 3.20 | 31.3% | -11.2% | |
| Under 3.5 | 72.2% | 1.38 | 1.30 | 76.9% | -6.1% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes pick | 56.0% | 1.79 | 1.95 | 51.3% | +9.2% | |
| BTTS no | 44.0% | 2.27 | 1.75 | 57.1% | -23.0% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 42.8% | 2.34 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 41.4% | 2.41 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 15.8% | 6.34 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.560 × 1.95 − 1 = +0.092 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.097 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 2.0% of bankroll
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | FC Politehnica Timisoara | CSM Reşiţa |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | DDWWDW | WLLWWL |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 3-3-0 | 3-0-3 |
| Points per match | 2.00 | 1.50 |
| Goals for / match | 1.67 | 1.00 |
| Goals against / match | 1.17 | 1.00 |
| Over 2.5 | 33% | 17% |
| BTTS | 67% | 17% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 33% |
| Failed to score | 0% | 50% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Strong home favourites – FC Politehnica Timisoara 62% to win. Standings: FC Politehnica Timisoara 2nd on 29, CSM Reşiţa 6th on 25.
Form
FC Politehnica Timisoara have three wins from their last six (D D W W D W). Latest: 2–2 away at Dumbrăviţa. Per match: 1.7 scored, 1.2 conceded.
CSM Reşiţa, last six: W L L W W L – three wins in total. Latest: 1–0 at home to Gloria Bistriţa. Per match: 1.0 scored, 1.0 conceded.
Expected goals (xG)
xG FC Politehnica Timisoara 1.79 · CSM Reşiţa 0.82 · total 2.61. Balanced goal lines: over 2.5 48%, BTTS 56%.
Model selection (graded)
Pre-match selection: Both teams to score, probability 56%, odds 1.95 v fair 1.79. Most probable score: FC Politehnica Timisoara 2–1 CSM Reşiţa. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →No previous meeting in our data.
Liga II table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Chindia Targoviste | 13 | +19 | 30 |
| 2 |  FC Politehnica Timisoara | 13 | +13 | 29 |
| 3 |  Slatina | 13 | +9 | 28 |
| 4 |  Popești-Leordeni | 13 | +9 | 27 |
| 5 |  Concordia | 13 | +14 | 25 |
| 6 |  CSM Reşiţa | 13 | +4 | 25 |
| 7 |  Metalul Buzău | 13 | +6 | 24 |
| 8 |  Cetatea Suceava | 13 | +8 | 22 |
| 9 |  Metaloglobus | 13 | +2 | 21 |
| 10 |  CSM Ramnicu Valcea | 13 | -1 | 20 |
| 11 |  FC Bacau | 13 | +9 | 19 |
| 12 |  Bihor Oradea | 13 | +7 | 19 |
| 13 |  CS Afumati | 13 | -1 | 18 |
| 14 |  Gloria Bistriţa | 13 | -2 | 18 |
| 15 |  Unirea Slobozia | 13 | +2 | 14 |
| 16 |  CSA Steaua Bucureşti | 13 | -7 | 11 |
| 17 |  ASA Targu Mures | 13 | -13 | 11 |
| 18 |  CSM Satu Mare | 13 | -8 | 9 |
| 19 |  Viitorul Şelimbăr | 13 | -16 | 9 |
| 20 |  Ştefăneşti | 13 | -20 | 9 |
| 21 |  CS Dinamo București | 13 | -17 | 8 |
| 22 |  Dumbrăviţa | 13 | -17 | 4 |
More Liga II predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for FC Politehnica Timisoara vs CSM Reşiţa?
The Model pick is Both teams to score with a model probability of 56, priced around 1.95 by the bookmakers.
What are the FC Politehnica Timisoara v CSM Reşiţa probabilities?
FC Politehnica Timisoara win 62%, draw 19%, CSM Reşiţa win 19%.
What is the most probable score for FC Politehnica Timisoara vs CSM Reşiţa?
FC Politehnica Timisoara 2–1 CSM Reşiţa is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for FC Politehnica Timisoara vs CSM Reşiţa?
FC Politehnica Timisoara 1.79, CSM Reşiţa 0.82 – over 2.5 at 48%, BTTS at 56%.
What time is FC Politehnica Timisoara vs CSM Reşiţa?
Monday 9 November 2026, 13:30 WAT – Liga II.