- λ home
- 1.06
- λ away
- 2.22
- Σλ total
- 3.28
- P(over 2.5)
- 63%
- P(BTTS)
- 63%
- Modal score
- 1–2 9.8%
CS Dinamo București vs CSM Ramnicu Valcea prediction & xG model: Both teams to score
Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick landed ✓
CS Dinamo București v CSM Ramnicu Valcea: how the Arena called it
- Full time
- 2–3
- Votes
- 0
- Takes
- 0
- Back / fade
- 0 / 0
- Arena tipBoth teams to score✓
- VotersNobody called this one–
Your call Voting closed at kick-off
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How the numbers for CS Dinamo București v CSM Ramnicu Valcea are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to league results (26 and 13 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CS Dinamo București (home) | 1.61 | 0.97 | 1.11 | 1.74 |
| CSM Ramnicu Valcea (away) | 1.24 | 0.94 | 1.52 | 1.76 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.61 × 0.97 × 1.11 ≈ 1.74
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 3.50 | 45% |
| Statistical xG feed | 3.33 | 25% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 3.25 | 30% |
| Blended total λ | 3.28 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.06, λaway = 2.22
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 17.0%
- Σ draw cells
- 19.4%
- Σ away-win cells
- 63.6%
- Most probable score
- 1–2 · 9.8%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 CS Dinamo București | 38.0% | 14.0% | 17.8% | 15.6% |
| X Draw | 23.1% | 23.0% | 21.1% | 22.2% |
| 2 CSM Ramnicu Valcea | 38.9% | 63.0% | 61.1% | 62.2% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.077 → 7.7% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · CS Dinamo București | 15.6% | 6.40 | 5.20 | 19.2% | -18.8% | |
| X · Draw | 22.2% | 4.50 | 4.40 | 22.7% | -2.3% | |
| 2 · CSM Ramnicu Valcea | 62.2% | 1.61 | 1.52 | 65.8% | -5.5% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 37.8% | 2.64 | 2.55 | 39.2% | -3.6% | |
| X2 | 84.4% | 1.19 | 1.17 | 85.5% | -1.3% | |
| 12 | 77.8% | 1.29 | 1.19 | 84.0% | -7.4% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB CS Dinamo București | 20.1% | 4.98 | – | – | – | |
| DNB CSM Ramnicu Valcea | 79.9% | 1.25 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 82.1% | 1.22 | 1.15 | 87.0% | -5.5% | |
| Under 1.5 | 17.9% | 5.60 | 4.70 | 21.3% | -16.1% | |
| Over 2.5 | 63.4% | 1.58 | 1.47 | 68.0% | -6.9% | |
| Under 2.5 | 36.6% | 2.73 | 2.50 | 40.0% | -8.4% | |
| Over 3.5 | 42.5% | 2.35 | 2.15 | 46.5% | -8.6% | |
| Under 3.5 | 57.5% | 1.74 | 1.65 | 60.6% | -5.2% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes pick | 63.4% | 1.58 | 1.57 | 63.7% | -0.4% | |
| BTTS no | 36.6% | 2.73 | 2.25 | 44.4% | -17.7% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 17.3% | 5.79 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 35.7% | 2.80 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 47.1% | 2.12 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.634 × 1.57 − 1 = -0.004 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.000 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.0% of bankroll (no stake – the price has no edge)
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | CS Dinamo București | CSM Ramnicu Valcea |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | DLWDLL | WLLLWL |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 1-2-3 | 2-0-4 |
| Points per match | 0.83 | 1.00 |
| Goals for / match | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| Goals against / match | 2.33 | 2.00 |
| Over 2.5 | 83% | 50% |
| BTTS | 83% | 33% |
| Clean sheets | 17% | 0% |
| Failed to score | 17% | 67% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
CSM Ramnicu Valcea favoured on the road at 62% – the ratings gap outweighs home advantage. Standings: CS Dinamo București 21st on 8, CSM Ramnicu Valcea 10th on 20.
Form
CS Dinamo București, last six: D L W D L L – one win in total. Latest: 0–0 away at CSA Steaua Bucureşti. 2.0 goals a match in that spell.
CSM Ramnicu Valcea, last six: W L L L W L – two wins in total. Latest: 3–2 at home to CS Afumati. Per match: 1.0 scored, 2.0 conceded. No shut-outs in that run.
Expected goals (xG)
xG CS Dinamo București 1.06 · CSM Ramnicu Valcea 2.22 · total 3.28. High total: over 2.5 63%, BTTS 63%.
Model selection (graded)
Pre-match selection: Both teams to score, probability 63%, odds 1.57 v fair 1.58. Most probable score: CS Dinamo București 1–2 CSM Ramnicu Valcea. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →No previous meeting in our data.
Liga II table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Chindia Targoviste | 13 | +19 | 30 |
| 2 |  FC Politehnica Timisoara | 13 | +13 | 29 |
| 3 |  Slatina | 13 | +9 | 28 |
| 4 |  Popești-Leordeni | 13 | +9 | 27 |
| 5 |  Concordia | 13 | +14 | 25 |
| 6 |  CSM Reşiţa | 13 | +4 | 25 |
| 7 |  Metalul Buzău | 13 | +6 | 24 |
| 8 |  Cetatea Suceava | 13 | +8 | 22 |
| 9 |  Metaloglobus | 13 | +2 | 21 |
| 10 |  CSM Ramnicu Valcea | 13 | -1 | 20 |
| 11 |  FC Bacau | 13 | +9 | 19 |
| 12 |  Bihor Oradea | 13 | +7 | 19 |
| 13 |  CS Afumati | 13 | -1 | 18 |
| 14 |  Gloria Bistriţa | 13 | -2 | 18 |
| 15 |  Unirea Slobozia | 13 | +2 | 14 |
| 16 |  CSA Steaua Bucureşti | 13 | -7 | 11 |
| 17 |  ASA Targu Mures | 13 | -13 | 11 |
| 18 |  CSM Satu Mare | 13 | -8 | 9 |
| 19 |  Viitorul Şelimbăr | 13 | -16 | 9 |
| 20 |  Ştefăneşti | 13 | -20 | 9 |
| 21 |  CS Dinamo București | 13 | -17 | 8 |
| 22 |  Dumbrăviţa | 13 | -17 | 4 |
More Liga II predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for CS Dinamo București vs CSM Ramnicu Valcea?
The Model pick is Both teams to score with a model probability of 63, priced around 1.57 by the bookmakers.
What are the CS Dinamo București v CSM Ramnicu Valcea probabilities?
CS Dinamo București win 16%, draw 22%, CSM Ramnicu Valcea win 62%.
What is the most probable score for CS Dinamo București vs CSM Ramnicu Valcea?
CS Dinamo București 1–2 CSM Ramnicu Valcea is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for CS Dinamo București vs CSM Ramnicu Valcea?
CS Dinamo București 1.06, CSM Ramnicu Valcea 2.22 – over 2.5 at 63%, BTTS at 63%.
What time is CS Dinamo București vs CSM Ramnicu Valcea?
Monday 9 November 2026, 16:00 WAT, at CNF Buftea – Liga II.