- λ home
- 1.44
- λ away
- 1.56
- Σλ total
- 3.00
- P(over 2.5)
- 55%
- P(BTTS)
- 60%
- Modal score
- 1–1 11.2%
Evesham United vs Yate Town prediction & xG model: Both teams to score
Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick missed ✗
Evesham United v Yate Town: how the Arena called it
- Full time
- 0–3
- Votes
- 0
- Takes
- 0
- Back / fade
- 0 / 0
- Arena tipBoth teams to score✗
- VotersNobody called this one–
Your call Voting closed at kick-off
This debate is closed. The takes below stay up as a record of what the Arena said.
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How the numbers for Evesham United v Yate Town are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to league results (23 and 22 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Evesham United (home) | 1.85 | 0.89 | 1.10 | 1.81 |
| Yate Town (away) | 1.39 | 0.82 | 1.29 | 1.47 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.85 × 0.89 × 1.10 ≈ 1.81
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 3.28 | 45% |
| Statistical xG feed | 3.28 | 25% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 2.76 | 30% |
| Blended total λ | 3.00 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.44, λaway = 1.56
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 35.4%
- Σ draw cells
- 24.3%
- Σ away-win cells
- 40.3%
- Most probable score
- 1–1 · 11.2%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Evesham United | 45.2% | 38.0% | 35.4% | 36.9% |
| X Draw | 23.7% | 17.0% | 27.2% | 21.3% |
| 2 Yate Town | 31.1% | 45.0% | 37.5% | 41.8% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.122 → 12.2% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Evesham United | 36.9% | 2.71 | 2.52 | 39.7% | -7.0% | |
| X · Draw | 21.3% | 4.70 | 3.28 | 30.5% | -30.2% | |
| 2 · Yate Town | 41.8% | 2.39 | 2.38 | 42.0% | -0.4% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 58.2% | 1.72 | 1.43 | 69.9% | -16.8% | |
| X2 | 63.1% | 1.58 | 1.38 | 72.5% | -12.9% | |
| 12 | 78.7% | 1.27 | 1.23 | 81.3% | -3.2% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Evesham United | 46.9% | 2.13 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Yate Town | 53.1% | 1.88 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 77.4% | 1.29 | 1.21 | 82.6% | -6.3% | |
| Under 1.5 | 22.6% | 4.42 | 3.58 | 27.9% | -19.1% | |
| Over 2.5 | 54.9% | 1.82 | 1.76 | 56.8% | -3.4% | |
| Under 2.5 | 45.1% | 2.22 | 1.92 | 52.1% | -13.4% | |
| Over 3.5 | 33.3% | 3.00 | 2.88 | 34.7% | -4.0% | |
| Under 3.5 | 66.7% | 1.50 | 1.32 | 75.8% | -12.0% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes pick | 60.2% | 1.66 | 1.61 | 62.1% | -3.0% | |
| BTTS no | 39.8% | 2.52 | 2.09 | 47.8% | -16.9% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 28.6% | 3.49 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 39.7% | 2.52 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 31.7% | 3.16 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.602 × 1.61 − 1 = -0.030 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.000 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.0% of bankroll (no stake – the price has no edge)
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Evesham United | Yate Town |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | LLWLLL | DLDDLL |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 1-0-5 | 0-3-3 |
| Points per match | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| Goals for / match | 1.17 | 0.67 |
| Goals against / match | 3.00 | 1.67 |
| Over 2.5 | 83% | 33% |
| BTTS | 67% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 17% |
| Failed to score | 33% | 50% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Probabilities are almost level: 37 / 21 / 42% for home, draw, away. Standings: Evesham United 18th on 16, Yate Town 13th on 18.
Form
Evesham United have one win from their last six (L L W L L L). Latest: 1–2 away at Hanwell Town. Per match: 1.2 scored, 3.0 conceded. No shut-outs in that run.
Yate Town have zero wins from their last six (D L D D L L). Latest: 1–1 at home to Gloucester City. Only 0.7 goals a match in that spell.
Head to head
Last meeting (Apr 2026): Yate Town 3–0 Evesham United. Old results carry little weight next to current ratings.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Evesham United 1.44 · Yate Town 1.56 · total 3.00. High total: over 2.5 55%, BTTS 60%.
Model selection (graded)
Pre-match selection: Both teams to score, probability 60%, odds 1.61 v fair 1.66. Most probable score: Evesham United 1–2 Yate Town. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →- 6 Apr 2026Yate Town3–0Evesham United
Non League Premier Southern South table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Uxbridge | 16 | +19 | 36 |
| 2 |  Poole Town | 16 | +11 | 32 |
| 3 |  Hanworth Villa | 16 | +13 | 31 |
| 4 |  Plymouth Parkway | 15 | +13 | 29 |
| 5 |  Chertsey Town | 16 | +10 | 29 |
| 6 |  Bath City | 16 | +6 | 29 |
| 7 |  Chichester City | 17 | +2 | 28 |
| 8 |  Gosport Borough | 16 | +3 | 24 |
| 9 |  Wimborne Town | 13 | +13 | 22 |
| 10 |  Taunton Town | 14 | +9 | 22 |
| 11 |  Frome Town | 15 | +3 | 20 |
| 12 |  Berkhamsted | 14 | -2 | 18 |
| 13 |  Yate Town | 16 | -8 | 18 |
| 14 |  Sholing | 14 | -2 | 17 |
| 15 |  Hanwell Town | 16 | -4 | 17 |
| 16 |  Basingstoke Town | 16 | -7 | 16 |
| 17 |  Chippenham Town | 16 | -12 | 16 |
| 18 |  Evesham United | 17 | -16 | 16 |
| 19 |  Gloucester City | 14 | -3 | 15 |
| 20 |  Bracknell Town | 17 | -18 | 15 |
| 21 |  Malvern Town | 16 | -17 | 14 |
| 22 |  Havant & Wville | 16 | -13 | 12 |
More Non League Premier Southern South predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Evesham United vs Yate Town?
The Model pick is Both teams to score with a model probability of 60, priced around 1.61 by the bookmakers.
What are the Evesham United v Yate Town probabilities?
Evesham United win 37%, draw 21%, Yate Town win 42%.
What is the most probable score for Evesham United vs Yate Town?
Evesham United 1–2 Yate Town is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Evesham United vs Yate Town?
Evesham United 1.44, Yate Town 1.56 – over 2.5 at 55%, BTTS at 60%.
What time is Evesham United vs Yate Town?
Tuesday 10 November 2026, 20:45 WAT – Non League Premier Southern South.