- λ home
- 1.37
- λ away
- 1.25
- Σλ total
- 2.62
- P(over 2.5)
- 48%
- P(BTTS)
- 57%
- Modal score
- 1–1 12.5%
Wimborne Town vs Poole Town prediction & xG model: Both teams to score
Wimborne Town v Poole Town: who are you backing?
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How the numbers for Wimborne Town v Poole Town are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to league results (21 and 22 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wimborne Town (home) | 1.85 | 1.04 | 0.87 | 1.68 |
| Poole Town (away) | 1.39 | 1.02 | 0.67 | 0.96 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.85 × 1.04 × 0.87 ≈ 1.68
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 2.64 | 45% |
| Statistical xG feed | 2.64 | 25% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 2.60 | 30% |
| Blended total λ | 2.62 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.37, λaway = 1.25
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 39.8%
- Σ draw cells
- 26.2%
- Σ away-win cells
- 34.0%
- Most probable score
- 1–1 · 12.5%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Wimborne Town | 53.4% | 44.0% | 38.4% | 41.7% |
| X Draw | 25.5% | 18.0% | 28.6% | 22.4% |
| 2 Poole Town | 21.1% | 38.0% | 33.0% | 35.9% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.122 → 12.2% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Wimborne Town | 41.7% | 2.40 | 2.32 | 43.1% | -3.4% | |
| X · Draw | 22.4% | 4.46 | 3.12 | 32.1% | -30.0% | |
| 2 · Poole Town | 35.9% | 2.79 | 2.70 | 37.0% | -3.1% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 64.1% | 1.56 | 1.33 | 75.2% | -14.8% | |
| X2 | 58.3% | 1.71 | 1.45 | 69.0% | -15.4% | |
| 12 | 77.6% | 1.29 | 1.25 | 80.0% | -3.0% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Wimborne Town | 53.7% | 1.86 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Poole Town | 46.3% | 2.16 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 72.7% | 1.38 | 1.26 | 79.4% | -8.4% | |
| Under 1.5 | 27.3% | 3.66 | 3.20 | 31.3% | -12.6% | |
| Over 2.5 | 48.4% | 2.06 | 1.90 | 52.6% | -8.0% | |
| Under 2.5 | 51.6% | 1.94 | 1.77 | 56.5% | -8.7% | |
| Over 3.5 | 27.5% | 3.63 | 3.20 | 31.3% | -11.9% | |
| Under 3.5 | 72.5% | 1.38 | 1.26 | 79.4% | -8.7% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes pick | 57.3% | 1.75 | 1.70 | 58.8% | -2.7% | |
| BTTS no | 42.7% | 2.34 | 1.96 | 51.0% | -16.2% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 30.3% | 3.30 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 42.9% | 2.33 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 26.8% | 3.73 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.573 × 1.70 − 1 = -0.027 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.000 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.0% of bankroll (no stake – the price has no edge)
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Wimborne Town | Poole Town |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | WWDWWW | DLDLWW |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 5-1-0 | 2-2-2 |
| Points per match | 2.67 | 1.33 |
| Goals for / match | 2.00 | 1.83 |
| Goals against / match | 0.17 | 1.17 |
| Over 2.5 | 33% | 67% |
| BTTS | 17% | 67% |
| Clean sheets | 83% | 17% |
| Failed to score | 17% | 17% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
No clear favourite in the grid – Wimborne Town 42%, draw 22%, Poole Town 36%. Standings: Wimborne Town 10th on 22, Poole Town 3rd on 32.
Form
Sequence for Wimborne Town: W W D W W W, so five victories in six. Latest: 2–0 at home to Crawley Town. 2.0 goals a match in that spell. 5 shut-outs in that run.
Sequence for Poole Town: D L D L W W, so two victories in six. Latest: 1–1 at home to Uxbridge. Per match: 1.8 scored, 1.2 conceded.
Head to head
Last meeting (Apr 2026): Poole Town 1–2 Wimborne Town. Old results carry little weight next to current ratings.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Wimborne Town 1.37 · Poole Town 1.25 · total 2.62. Balanced goal lines: over 2.5 48%, BTTS 57%.
Model selection
Selection: Both teams to score, probability 57%, odds 1.70 v fair 1.75. Most probable score: Wimborne Town 2–1 Poole Town. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →- 6 Apr 2026Poole Town1–2Wimborne Town
Non League Premier Southern South table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Uxbridge | 16 | +19 | 36 |
| 2 |  Hanworth Villa | 17 | +14 | 34 |
| 3 |  Poole Town | 17 | +6 | 32 |
| 4 |  Plymouth Parkway | 16 | +12 | 29 |
| 5 |  Chertsey Town | 16 | +10 | 29 |
| 6 |  Bath City | 16 | +6 | 29 |
| 7 |  Chichester City | 17 | +2 | 28 |
| 8 |  Taunton Town | 15 | +14 | 25 |
| 9 |  Gosport Borough | 17 | +1 | 24 |
| 10 |  Wimborne Town | 13 | +13 | 22 |
| 11 |  Frome Town | 16 | +2 | 20 |
| 12 |  Hanwell Town | 17 | -3 | 20 |
| 13 |  Basingstoke Town | 17 | -6 | 19 |
| 14 |  Evesham United | 18 | -14 | 19 |
| 15 |  Sholing | 15 | -2 | 18 |
| 16 |  Berkhamsted | 14 | -2 | 18 |
| 17 |  Yate Town | 17 | -12 | 18 |
| 18 |  Gloucester City | 15 | -3 | 16 |
| 19 |  Chippenham Town | 17 | -13 | 16 |
| 20 |  Havant & Wville | 17 | -9 | 15 |
| 21 |  Bracknell Town | 17 | -18 | 15 |
| 22 |  Malvern Town | 16 | -17 | 14 |
More Non League Premier Southern South predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Wimborne Town vs Poole Town?
The Model pick is Both teams to score with a model probability of 57, priced around 1.70 by the bookmakers.
What are the Wimborne Town v Poole Town probabilities?
Wimborne Town win 42%, draw 22%, Poole Town win 36%.
What is the most probable score for Wimborne Town vs Poole Town?
Wimborne Town 2–1 Poole Town is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Wimborne Town vs Poole Town?
Wimborne Town 1.37, Poole Town 1.25 – over 2.5 at 48%, BTTS at 57%.
What time is Wimborne Town vs Poole Town?
Tuesday 10 November 2026, 20:30 WAT – Non League Premier Southern South.