- λ home
- 2.19
- λ away
- 1.13
- Σλ total
- 3.32
- P(over 2.5)
- 64%
- P(BTTS)
- 61%
- Modal score
- 2–1 9.8%
Curzon Ashton vs Quorn prediction & xG model: Both teams to score
In-play probabilities
The pre-match expected goals, scaled to the minutes left and added to the current score. Updates every 30 seconds.
Pre-match: Curzon Ashton 62% · draw 20% · Quorn 19%. The live model cannot see red cards or substitutions – read it as a guide.
Curzon Ashton v Quorn: who are you backing?
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How the numbers for Curzon Ashton v Quorn are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Not enough history for team ratings – the goal estimate uses the statistical feed and the market line only.
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Statistical xG feed | 3.39 | 45% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 3.26 | 55% |
| Blended total λ | 3.32 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 2.19, λaway = 1.13
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 61.3%
- Σ draw cells
- 19.9%
- Σ away-win cells
- 18.7%
- Most probable score
- 2–1 · 9.8%
Blending with the market
With no ratings for these teams, the statistical feed is blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Curzon Ashton | – | 61.0% | 62.3% | 61.5% |
| X Draw | – | 19.0% | 20.2% | 19.5% |
| 2 Quorn | – | 20.0% | 17.5% | 18.9% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.123 → 12.3% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Curzon Ashton | 61.5% | 1.62 | 1.43 | 69.9% | -12.0% | |
| X · Draw | 19.5% | 5.12 | 4.40 | 22.7% | -14.1% | |
| 2 · Quorn | 18.9% | 5.28 | 5.10 | 19.6% | -3.4% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 81.1% | 1.23 | 1.08 | 92.6% | -12.5% | |
| X2 | 38.5% | 2.60 | 2.38 | 42.0% | -8.5% | |
| 12 | 80.5% | 1.24 | 1.12 | 89.3% | -9.9% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Curzon Ashton | 76.5% | 1.31 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Quorn | 23.5% | 4.25 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 83.2% | 1.20 | 1.10 | 90.9% | -8.5% | |
| Under 1.5 | 16.8% | 5.94 | 5.00 | 20.0% | -15.8% | |
| Over 2.5 | 63.8% | 1.57 | 1.43 | 69.9% | -8.7% | |
| Under 2.5 | 36.2% | 2.77 | 2.46 | 40.7% | -11.0% | |
| Over 3.5 | 42.7% | 2.34 | 2.13 | 46.9% | -9.0% | |
| Under 3.5 | 57.3% | 1.75 | 1.61 | 62.1% | -7.8% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes pick | 60.6% | 1.65 | 1.55 | 64.5% | -6.1% | |
| BTTS no | 39.4% | 2.54 | 2.20 | 45.5% | -13.3% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 45.7% | 2.19 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 35.8% | 2.80 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 18.5% | 5.39 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.606 × 1.55 − 1 = -0.061 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.000 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.0% of bankroll (no stake – the price has no edge)
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Curzon Ashton | Quorn |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | WWWWWD | LWWDLD |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 5-1-0 | 2-2-2 |
| Points per match | 2.67 | 1.33 |
| Goals for / match | 1.67 | 2.33 |
| Goals against / match | 0.50 | 2.33 |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 83% |
| BTTS | 33% | 83% |
| Clean sheets | 67% | 17% |
| Failed to score | 0% | 0% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Strong home favourites – Curzon Ashton 62% to win. Standings: Curzon Ashton 2nd on 37, Quorn 13th on 21.
Form
Sequence for Curzon Ashton: W W W W W D, so five victories in six. Latest: 1–0 at home to Ilkeston Town. Per match: 1.7 scored, 0.5 conceded. 4 shut-outs in that run.
Sequence for Quorn: L W W D L D, so two victories in six. Latest: 2–3 at home to Stockton Town. 2.3 goals a match in that spell.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Curzon Ashton 2.19 · Quorn 1.13 · total 3.32. Goals expected – 64% for over 2.5 and 61% for both teams to score.
Model selection
Model selection: Both teams to score, probability 61%, odds 1.55 v fair 1.65. Most probable score: Curzon Ashton 2–1 Quorn. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →No previous meeting in our data.
Non League Premier Northern table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Redcar Athletic | 18 | +22 | 38 |
| 2 |  Curzon Ashton | 18 | +14 | 37 |
| 3 |  Cleethorpes Town | 17 | +24 | 36 |
| 4 |  Guiseley AFC | 16 | +18 | 33 |
| 5 |  Avro | 18 | +8 | 32 |
| 6 |  Rylands | 17 | +7 | 30 |
| 7 |  Workington | 18 | +4 | 30 |
| 8 |  Bury | 16 | +14 | 29 |
| 9 |  Gainsborough Trinity | 17 | +9 | 29 |
| 10 |  Warrington Town | 17 | +7 | 29 |
| 11 |  Alfreton Town | 18 | -2 | 23 |
| 12 |  AFC Emley | 18 | -8 | 23 |
| 13 |  Quorn | 17 | -2 | 21 |
| 14 |  Lancaster City | 18 | -11 | 21 |
| 15 |  Whitby Town | 18 | -23 | 19 |
| 16 |  Stockton Town | 18 | -5 | 18 |
| 17 |  Hyde United | 17 | -13 | 18 |
| 18 |  Ashton United | 17 | -2 | 17 |
| 19 |  Leek Town | 17 | -5 | 17 |
| 20 |  Ilkeston Town | 18 | -25 | 13 |
| 21 |  United of Manchester | 16 | -7 | 12 |
| 22 |  Bamber Bridge | 18 | -24 | 11 |
More Non League Premier Northern predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Curzon Ashton vs Quorn?
The Model pick is Both teams to score with a model probability of 61, priced around 1.55 by the bookmakers.
What are the Curzon Ashton v Quorn probabilities?
Curzon Ashton win 62%, draw 20%, Quorn win 19%.
What is the most probable score for Curzon Ashton vs Quorn?
Curzon Ashton 2–1 Quorn is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Curzon Ashton vs Quorn?
Curzon Ashton 2.19, Quorn 1.13 – over 2.5 at 64%, BTTS at 61%.
What time is Curzon Ashton vs Quorn?
Saturday 14 November 2026, 16:00 WAT, at Tameside Stadium – Non League Premier Northern.