- λ home
- 1.94
- λ away
- 0.93
- Σλ total
- 2.87
- P(over 2.5)
- 54%
- P(BTTS)
- 58%
- Modal score
- 1–0 11.0%
Cleethorpes Town vs Stockton Town prediction & xG model: Cleethorpes Town to win
Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick missed ✗
Cleethorpes Town v Stockton Town: how the Arena called it
- Full time
- 1–3
- Votes
- 0
- Takes
- 0
- Back / fade
- 0 / 0
- Arena tipCleethorpes Town to win✗
- VotersNobody called this one–
Your call Voting closed at kick-off
This debate is closed. The takes below stay up as a record of what the Arena said.
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How the numbers for Cleethorpes Town v Stockton Town are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to all competitions results (30 and 26 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cleethorpes Town (home) | 1.66 | 1.09 | 1.03 | 1.86 |
| Stockton Town (away) | 1.38 | 0.99 | 0.68 | 0.93 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.66 × 1.09 × 1.03 ≈ 1.86
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 2.80 | 45% |
| Statistical xG feed | 2.88 | 25% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 2.85 | 30% |
| Blended total λ | 2.87 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.94, λaway = 0.93
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 60.9%
- Σ draw cells
- 21.6%
- Σ away-win cells
- 17.5%
- Most probable score
- 1–0 · 11.0%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Cleethorpes Town | 58.4% | 63.0% | 55.2% | 59.7% |
| X Draw | 23.5% | 24.0% | 23.8% | 23.9% |
| 2 Stockton Town | 18.2% | 13.0% | 21.0% | 16.4% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.119 → 11.9% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Cleethorpes Town pick | 59.7% | 1.67 | 1.62 | 61.7% | -3.3% | |
| X · Draw | 23.9% | 4.18 | 3.75 | 26.7% | -10.3% | |
| 2 · Stockton Town | 16.4% | 6.11 | 4.25 | 23.5% | -30.4% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 83.6% | 1.20 | 1.13 | 88.5% | -5.5% | |
| X2 | 40.3% | 2.48 | 2.00 | 50.0% | -19.4% | |
| 12 | 76.1% | 1.31 | 1.17 | 85.5% | -11.0% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Cleethorpes Town | 78.5% | 1.27 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Stockton Town | 21.5% | 4.65 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 77.4% | 1.29 | 1.18 | 84.7% | -8.7% | |
| Under 1.5 | 22.6% | 4.42 | 3.90 | 25.6% | -11.8% | |
| Over 2.5 | 54.5% | 1.84 | 1.69 | 59.2% | -8.0% | |
| Under 2.5 | 45.5% | 2.20 | 2.01 | 49.8% | -8.5% | |
| Over 3.5 | 32.6% | 3.06 | 2.74 | 36.5% | -10.6% | |
| Under 3.5 | 67.4% | 1.48 | 1.35 | 74.1% | -9.1% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes | 58.1% | 1.72 | 1.67 | 59.9% | -2.9% | |
| BTTS no | 41.9% | 2.39 | 2.01 | 49.8% | -15.9% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 44.1% | 2.27 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 39.1% | 2.56 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 16.8% | 5.95 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.597 × 1.62 − 1 = -0.033 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.000 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.0% of bankroll (no stake – the price has no edge)
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Cleethorpes Town | Stockton Town |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | LWWLLW | WLWLLD |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 3-0-3 | 2-1-3 |
| Points per match | 1.50 | 1.17 |
| Goals for / match | 1.50 | 1.83 |
| Goals against / match | 1.00 | 1.50 |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 67% |
| BTTS | 33% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 17% |
| Failed to score | 17% | 33% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Slight home preference: Cleethorpes Town 60%, draw 24%, Stockton Town 16%. Standings: Cleethorpes Town 3rd on 36, Stockton Town 16th on 18.
Form
Cleethorpes Town have three wins from their last six (L W W L L W). Latest: 0–1 away at Bury. Per match: 1.5 scored, 1.0 conceded. 3 shut-outs in that run.
Stockton Town, last six: W L W L L D – two wins in total. Latest: 3–2 away at Quorn. Per match: 1.8 scored, 1.5 conceded.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Cleethorpes Town 1.94 · Stockton Town 0.93 · total 2.87. Balanced goal lines: over 2.5 54%, BTTS 58%.
Model selection (graded)
Pre-match selection: Cleethorpes Town to win, probability 60%, odds 1.62 v fair 1.67. Most probable score: Cleethorpes Town 1–0 Stockton Town. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →No previous meeting in our data.
Non League Premier Northern table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Redcar Athletic | 18 | +22 | 38 |
| 2 |  Curzon Ashton | 18 | +14 | 37 |
| 3 |  Cleethorpes Town | 17 | +24 | 36 |
| 4 |  Guiseley AFC | 16 | +18 | 33 |
| 5 |  Avro | 18 | +8 | 32 |
| 6 |  Rylands | 17 | +7 | 30 |
| 7 |  Workington | 18 | +4 | 30 |
| 8 |  Bury | 16 | +14 | 29 |
| 9 |  Gainsborough Trinity | 17 | +9 | 29 |
| 10 |  Warrington Town | 17 | +7 | 29 |
| 11 |  Alfreton Town | 18 | -2 | 23 |
| 12 |  AFC Emley | 18 | -8 | 23 |
| 13 |  Quorn | 17 | -2 | 21 |
| 14 |  Lancaster City | 18 | -11 | 21 |
| 15 |  Whitby Town | 18 | -23 | 19 |
| 16 |  Stockton Town | 18 | -5 | 18 |
| 17 |  Hyde United | 17 | -13 | 18 |
| 18 |  Ashton United | 17 | -2 | 17 |
| 19 |  Leek Town | 17 | -5 | 17 |
| 20 |  Ilkeston Town | 18 | -25 | 13 |
| 21 |  United of Manchester | 16 | -7 | 12 |
| 22 |  Bamber Bridge | 18 | -24 | 11 |
More Non League Premier Northern predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Cleethorpes Town vs Stockton Town?
The Model pick is Cleethorpes Town to win with a model probability of 60, priced around 1.62 by the bookmakers.
What are the Cleethorpes Town v Stockton Town probabilities?
Cleethorpes Town win 60%, draw 24%, Stockton Town win 16%.
What is the most probable score for Cleethorpes Town vs Stockton Town?
Cleethorpes Town 1–0 Stockton Town is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Cleethorpes Town vs Stockton Town?
Cleethorpes Town 1.94, Stockton Town 0.93 – over 2.5 at 54%, BTTS at 58%.
What time is Cleethorpes Town vs Stockton Town?
Saturday 14 November 2026, 16:00 WAT – Non League Premier Northern.