- λ home
- 1.16
- λ away
- 2.88
- Σλ total
- 4.03
- P(over 2.5)
- 76%
- P(BTTS)
- 56%
- Modal score
- 1–2 8.5%
BKV Előre vs Újpest II prediction & xG model: Over 1.5 goals
In-play probabilities
The pre-match expected goals, scaled to the minutes left and added to the current score. Updates every 30 seconds.
Pre-match: BKV Előre 11% · draw 17% · Újpest II 72%. The live model cannot see red cards or substitutions – read it as a guide.
BKV Előre v Újpest II: who are you backing?
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How the numbers for BKV Előre v Újpest II are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Not enough history for team ratings – the goal estimate uses the statistical feed and the market line only.
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Statistical xG feed | 4.17 | 45% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 3.92 | 55% |
| Blended total λ | 4.03 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.16, λaway = 2.88
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 12.5%
- Σ draw cells
- 14.9%
- Σ away-win cells
- 72.7%
- Most probable score
- 1–2 · 8.5%
Blending with the market
With no ratings for these teams, the statistical feed is blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 BKV Előre | – | 9.0% | 14.9% | 11.5% |
| X Draw | – | 16.0% | 17.9% | 16.8% |
| 2 Újpest II | – | 75.0% | 67.2% | 71.7% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.119 → 11.9% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · BKV Előre | 11.5% | 8.71 | 6.00 | 16.7% | -31.1% | |
| X · Draw | 16.8% | 5.96 | 5.00 | 20.0% | -16.1% | |
| 2 · Újpest II | 71.7% | 1.39 | 1.33 | 75.2% | -4.6% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 28.3% | 3.54 | – | – | – | |
| X2 | 88.5% | 1.13 | – | – | – | |
| 12 | 83.2% | 1.20 | – | – | – | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB BKV Előre | 13.8% | 7.25 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Újpest II | 86.2% | 1.16 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 pick | 91.1% | 1.10 | – | – | – | |
| Under 1.5 | 8.9% | 11.22 | – | – | – | |
| Over 2.5 | 75.8% | 1.32 | 1.25 | 80.0% | -5.2% | |
| Under 2.5 | 24.2% | 4.14 | 3.75 | 26.7% | -9.4% | |
| Over 3.5 | 57.3% | 1.74 | – | – | – | |
| Under 3.5 | 42.7% | 2.34 | – | – | – | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes | 56.4% | 1.77 | – | – | – | |
| BTTS no | 43.6% | 2.29 | – | – | – | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 15.0% | 6.68 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 29.8% | 3.35 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 55.2% | 1.81 | – | – | – | |
The selection
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | BKV Előre | Újpest II |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | DLLWDL | WWLDLD |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 1-2-3 | 2-2-2 |
| Points per match | 0.83 | 1.33 |
| Goals for / match | 1.67 | 1.67 |
| Goals against / match | 3.00 | 1.33 |
| Over 2.5 | 83% | 67% |
| BTTS | 83% | 67% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 33% |
| Failed to score | 17% | 17% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Away favourites: Újpest II 72%, BKV Előre 11%. Standings: BKV Előre 16th on 9, Újpest II 5th on 25.
Form
BKV Előre have one win from their last six (D L L W D L). Latest: 2–2 at home to Szolnoki MAV FC. Per match: 1.7 scored, 3.0 conceded. No shut-outs in that run.
Újpest II have two wins from their last six (W W L D L D). Latest: 4–2 away at Hódmezővásárhely. Per match: 1.7 scored, 1.3 conceded.
Head to head
Last meeting (Jul 2026): Újpest II 6–0 BKV Előre. Old results carry little weight next to current ratings.
Expected goals (xG)
xG BKV Előre 1.16 · Újpest II 2.88 · total 4.03. Goals expected – 76% for over 2.5 and 56% for both teams to score.
Model selection
Highest-rated market: Over 1.5 goals, probability 91%. Most probable score: BKV Előre 1–2 Újpest II. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →- 26 Jul 2026Újpest II6–0BKV Előre
NB III Southeast table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Gyulai Termál | 15 | +36 | 43 |
| 2 |  ESMTK | 15 | +24 | 34 |
| 3 |  Szeged-Csanád II | 16 | +8 | 27 |
| 4 |  III. Kerületi TUE | 15 | +7 | 26 |
| 5 |  Újpest II | 15 | +13 | 25 |
| 6 |  Vasas II | 16 | +14 | 24 |
| 7 |  Monori Se | 15 | +1 | 21 |
| 8 |  Csepel | 15 | +3 | 20 |
| 9 |  Dabas | 16 | -12 | 19 |
| 10 |  Bekescsaba 1912 | 15 | 0 | 17 |
| 11 |  Honvéd II | 15 | +2 | 16 |
| 12 |  Szolnoki MAV FC | 15 | -4 | 15 |
| 13 |  Sándorfalva | 15 | -22 | 13 |
| 14 |  Hódmezővásárhely | 15 | -13 | 12 |
| 15 |  Szegedi VSE | 16 | -23 | 10 |
| 16 |  BKV Előre | 15 | -34 | 9 |
More NB III Southeast predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for BKV Előre vs Újpest II?
The Model pick is Over 1.5 goals with a model probability of 91.
What are the BKV Előre v Újpest II probabilities?
BKV Előre win 11%, draw 17%, Újpest II win 72%.
What is the most probable score for BKV Előre vs Újpest II?
BKV Előre 1–2 Újpest II is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for BKV Előre vs Újpest II?
BKV Előre 1.16, Újpest II 2.88 – over 2.5 at 76%, BTTS at 56%.
What time is BKV Előre vs Újpest II?
Sunday 15 November 2026, 13:00 WAT – NB III Southeast.