- λ home
- 1.16
- λ away
- 2.14
- Σλ total
- 3.30
- P(over 2.5)
- 63%
- P(BTTS)
- 66%
- Modal score
- 1–2 9.8%
Monori Se vs ESMTK prediction & xG model: ESMTK to win
In-play probabilities
The pre-match expected goals, scaled to the minutes left and added to the current score. Updates every 30 seconds.
Pre-match: Monori Se 20% · draw 20% · ESMTK 60%. The live model cannot see red cards or substitutions – read it as a guide.
Monori Se v ESMTK: who are you backing?
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How the numbers for Monori Se v ESMTK are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Not enough history for team ratings – the goal estimate uses the statistical feed and the market line only.
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Statistical xG feed | 3.43 | 45% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 3.20 | 55% |
| Blended total λ | 3.30 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.16, λaway = 2.14
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 19.9%
- Σ draw cells
- 20.4%
- Σ away-win cells
- 59.7%
- Most probable score
- 1–2 · 9.8%
Blending with the market
With no ratings for these teams, the statistical feed is blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Monori Se | – | 16.0% | 25.9% | 20.2% |
| X Draw | – | 17.0% | 24.1% | 20.0% |
| 2 ESMTK | – | 67.0% | 50.0% | 59.9% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.123 → 12.3% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Monori Se | 20.2% | 4.96 | 3.44 | 29.1% | -30.7% | |
| X · Draw | 20.0% | 5.01 | 3.70 | 27.0% | -26.1% | |
| 2 · ESMTK pick | 59.9% | 1.67 | 1.78 | 56.2% | +6.6% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 40.1% | 2.49 | 1.79 | 55.9% | -28.2% | |
| X2 | 79.8% | 1.25 | 1.21 | 82.6% | -3.4% | |
| 12 | 80.0% | 1.25 | 1.18 | 84.7% | -5.6% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Monori Se | 25.2% | 3.97 | – | – | – | |
| DNB ESMTK | 74.8% | 1.34 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 84.2% | 1.19 | – | – | – | |
| Under 1.5 | 15.8% | 6.32 | – | – | – | |
| Over 2.5 | 63.1% | 1.59 | 1.46 | 68.5% | -7.9% | |
| Under 2.5 | 36.9% | 2.71 | 2.38 | 42.0% | -12.1% | |
| Over 3.5 | 41.8% | 2.39 | 2.20 | 45.5% | -7.9% | |
| Under 3.5 | 58.2% | 1.72 | 1.57 | 63.7% | -8.7% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes | 65.6% | 1.52 | 1.46 | 68.5% | -4.2% | |
| BTTS no | 34.4% | 2.91 | 2.41 | 41.5% | -17.2% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 19.4% | 5.17 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 36.1% | 2.77 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 44.6% | 2.24 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.599 × 1.78 − 1 = +0.066 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.084 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 2.0% of bankroll
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Monori Se | ESMTK |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | WWLDLL | WDDWWW |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 2-1-3 | 4-2-0 |
| Points per match | 1.17 | 2.33 |
| Goals for / match | 1.00 | 1.83 |
| Goals against / match | 2.17 | 0.67 |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 50% |
| BTTS | 67% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 17% | 50% |
| Failed to score | 17% | 17% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Marginal away preference, 60% against 20%. Standings: Monori Se 7th on 21, ESMTK 2nd on 34.
Form
Monori Se have two wins from their last six (W W L D L L). Latest: 1–0 at home to Szeged-Csanád II. Per match: 1.0 scored, 2.2 conceded.
Sequence for ESMTK: W D D W W W, so four victories in six. Latest: 2–0 at home to III. Kerületi TUE. Per match: 1.8 scored, 0.7 conceded. 3 shut-outs in that run.
Head to head
Last meeting (Jul 2026): ESMTK 2–1 Monori Se. Old results carry little weight next to current ratings.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Monori Se 1.16 · ESMTK 2.14 · total 3.30. High total: over 2.5 63%, BTTS 66%.
Model selection
Model selection: ESMTK to win, probability 60%, odds 1.78 v fair 1.67. Most probable score: Monori Se 1–2 ESMTK. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →- 26 Jul 2026ESMTK2–1Monori Se
NB III Southeast table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Gyulai Termál | 15 | +36 | 43 |
| 2 |  ESMTK | 15 | +24 | 34 |
| 3 |  Szeged-Csanád II | 16 | +8 | 27 |
| 4 |  III. Kerületi TUE | 15 | +7 | 26 |
| 5 |  Újpest II | 15 | +13 | 25 |
| 6 |  Vasas II | 16 | +14 | 24 |
| 7 |  Monori Se | 15 | +1 | 21 |
| 8 |  Csepel | 15 | +3 | 20 |
| 9 |  Dabas | 16 | -12 | 19 |
| 10 |  Bekescsaba 1912 | 15 | 0 | 17 |
| 11 |  Honvéd II | 15 | +2 | 16 |
| 12 |  Szolnoki MAV FC | 15 | -4 | 15 |
| 13 |  Sándorfalva | 15 | -22 | 13 |
| 14 |  Hódmezővásárhely | 15 | -13 | 12 |
| 15 |  Szegedi VSE | 16 | -23 | 10 |
| 16 |  BKV Előre | 15 | -34 | 9 |
More NB III Southeast predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Monori Se vs ESMTK?
The Model pick is ESMTK to win with a model probability of 60, priced around 1.78 by the bookmakers.
What are the Monori Se v ESMTK probabilities?
Monori Se win 20%, draw 20%, ESMTK win 60%.
What is the most probable score for Monori Se vs ESMTK?
Monori Se 1–2 ESMTK is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Monori Se vs ESMTK?
Monori Se 1.16, ESMTK 2.14 – over 2.5 at 63%, BTTS at 66%.
What time is Monori Se vs ESMTK?
Sunday 15 November 2026, 13:00 WAT – NB III Southeast.